Yes, I've revived the BLIZZARD thread. There's new information about this historic snowfall.
I wish I has a dime for every similar headline over the years that have mostly not panned out.
They generally pan out for someone - I feel like the predictions that there will be snow seem to be pretty accurate in recent years, but where the snow will actually be less so (eg I remember a big one from last year that ended up giving us only a little, but hit LI pretty hard).
I will assume the conversation will become more weather-focused when the weather itself becomes more focused. As for the off topic banter, I understand how it is a problem for the cut to the quick types, but it is a "virtual community" and it is a message board, and sometimes, conversations turn, as they do in real life face to face.
all the weather websites are still acting like nothing much will happen in our area
hankzona said:
I will assume the conversation will become more weather-focused when the weather itself becomes more focused. As for the off topic banter, I understand how it is a problem for the cut to the quick types, but it is a "virtual community" and it is a message board, and sometimes, conversations turn, as they do in real life face to face.
Don't worry. We will dispell no wine until it's time.
DaveSchmidt said:
hankzona said:
I will assume the conversation will become more weather-focused when the weather itself becomes more focused. As for the off topic banter, I understand how it is a problem for the cut to the quick types, but it is a "virtual community" and it is a message board, and sometimes, conversations turn, as they do in real life face to face.
Don't worry. We will dispell no wine until it's time.
don't spill any either. 
hankzona said:
I will assume the conversation will become more weather-focused when the weather itself becomes more focused. As for the off topic banter, I understand how it is a problem for the cut to the quick types, but it is a "virtual community" and it is a message board, and sometimes, conversations turn, as they do in real life face to face.
All the extra banter can be avoided by simply clicking on Max Weisenfeld's name at the top of the first page, going to his profile page and clicking the Comments button on the left. That way, you only see his posts.
Job done. You can all thank me later.
ridski said:
hankzona said:
I will assume the conversation will become more weather-focused when the weather itself becomes more focused. As for the off topic banter, I understand how it is a problem for the cut to the quick types, but it is a "virtual community" and it is a message board, and sometimes, conversations turn, as they do in real life face to face.
All the extra banter can be avoided by simply clicking on Max Weisenfeld's name at the top of the first page, going to his profile page and clicking the Comments button on the left. That way, you only see his posts.
Job done. You can all thank me later.
like this: https://maplewood.worldwebs.com/profile/comments/u/max_weisenfeld
As the storm gets closer we could start a new thread the will be all weather and we can pin it to the top. Then we'll try to reserve it for our forecasters: max and maybe if wxnut and/or shickson will chime in .
jamie said:
ridski said:
hankzona said:
I will assume the conversation will become more weather-focused when the weather itself becomes more focused. As for the off topic banter, I understand how it is a problem for the cut to the quick types, but it is a "virtual community" and it is a message board, and sometimes, conversations turn, as they do in real life face to face.
All the extra banter can be avoided by simply clicking on Max Weisenfeld's name at the top of the first page, going to his profile page and clicking the Comments button on the left. That way, you only see his posts.
Job done. You can all thank me later.
like this: https://maplewood.worldwebs.com/profile/comments/u/max_weisenfeld
As the storm gets closer we could start a new thread the will be all weather and we can pin it to the top. Then we'll try to reserve it for our forecasters: max and maybe if wxnut and/or shickson will chime in .
I think the issue is that the forecasts themselves drive the banter - so it's hard to avoid responses to it..
Perhaps the type of weather thread that could avoid the banter would be one that was either locked, with only certain permissions to post in; on one that uses an entry survey question of 'is this weather /local info/conditions update?', or only pulls in/points to weather updates from a fuller weather discussion thread.
FWIW, this might have been a "lame winter" so far, but it wasn't until this time last year that a really killer winter kicked in. And it just never kept coming.
If the Weather Gods are listening, I would really love this winter to include some breathing spells so I can unclench. Is that asking too much???
Is it really so awful to have banter? I kinda like it. And, as ridski posted above, it is possible to focus just on Max's posts if you wish.
PeggyC said:
FWIW, this might have been a "lame winter" so far, but it wasn't until this time last year that a really killer winter kicked in. And it just never kept coming.
If the Weather Gods are listening, I would really love this winter to include some breathing spells so I can unclench. Is that asking too much???
Exactly, it was the constant battering from late January into March that made last winter so tedious. I'm hoping we're not in for a rerun of that.
Also, if the Weather Gods are in fact listening, snow is fine, but could they knock off the Nor'easter thing?
sac said:
Is it really so awful to have banter? I kinda like it. And, as ridski posted above, it is possible to focus just on Max's posts if you wish.
+1!!!!
Seems like the last bunch of years winter starts later and lasts later. Anyone else have this sense? Wonder if it is true.
My recollection, which is very biased and flimsy, is that when I was younger we had more snow in December and January, with the occasional large storm in February and rarely in March. Lately we seem to get a few storms in December, a few more in January, and then a slew of them in February and even into late March.
drummerboy said:
what the hell was that?!?!?!?!
Ah. Here you go:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interrobang
Didn't we have a fairly significant snow fall on the day after Thanksgiving in 2014?
soorlady said:
Didn't we have a fairly significant snow fall on the day after Thanksgiving in 2014?
Day before Thanksgiving...
Eta: and snow every week from then on. I'm sure I am exaggerating but we did have snow all winter long.
I'm really surprised the commercial weather forecasters are not hyping this one. They have had quite the dry boring winter so far, and there is some impressive upside potential for this storm. I find it disturbing that they are not taking advantage of the opportunity to provoke some hysteria.
I had hoped by now to have something more concrete to report in terms of snowfall prediction, but it is not going to be so. This has shaped up to be one of those annoying coastal systems that have a very steep gradient (cutoff) between the wet and dry -- right now the slope between maximum wet and almost completely dry is about 75 miles, which is less than the margin of error on the storm track, even with the better data the models have had since the Pacific low came ashore 24 hours ago. For example, on the last run the Euro has almost a foot of difference in snowfall from south to north in Bergen County alone. This is most likely not going to verify, but it is indicative of what is making it tough for the forecasters.
What we do know now:
- This is a big storm, with the potential for more than in inch of QPF (water fallen from the sky).
- At least some of what falls will be snow -- probably most of it.
- We probably will not be able to trust the snow maps or forecasts until Friday morning.
- It will start snowing overnight Friday - Saturday and could continue for 24 hours.
- It is impossible to forecast how much QPF there will be at any specific point on the map, except to say that north of about Poughkeepsie you should be fairly dry. The entire coast from South Carolina to Boston will probably see some sort of watch or warning by Friday morning.
- Personally, I don't mind the banter.
Now the bad news.
I think I mentioned above that I have to take my kids back to school. This means that, for large parts of Thursday and Friday, I will be unable to post. The new Sube has some banging electronics, but running weather models and posting to MOL are not features I choose to take advantage of while driving. I will post when I can.
Also, time for the annual disclaimer.
I am not a trained meteorologist -- in fact, I am not even an untrained one. Nor do I play one on TV. Mostly I take the information provided by the NWS in the form of reports and models, and try to (1) pinpoint how it will effect our particular piece of heaven, and (2) translate it into low-hype plain English. If I get it right, please thank the National Weather Service, and lobby your federal representatives for more funding for NOAA, who make this all possible.
I heard through the grapevine your hands were going to be on the steering wheel and not your keyboard but I didn't want to be the cause for any panic.
The guy on the video....weird, but the way he kept throwing in "the STATE of New Jersey!" over and over and over, started me laughing. It reminds me of how the storm forecasts are announced here. In a state of panic.
Max, thank you so much for the bullet points. The Reader's Digest version helps my muddled brain process what you are saying
http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter
Mt Holly is calling for about 7-10 inches over Essex as the most likely scenario at this time, with 5-7 inches to the near north (Morris and Passaic). The maximum scenario is 14-17 and 11-14, respectively.
New York is calling for 6-8 inches in the City, less inland and even rain on the Long Island forks for part of the storm.
One thing for sure--we will know a lot more about this come Sunday afternoon.
mfpark said:
One thing for sure--we will know a lot more about this come Sunday afternoon.
Preach.
Time to do my lower back exercises.
slate.com: This “Blizzard for the Ages” Headed for the East Coast Is Very Much the Real Deal
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/01/19/east_coast_blizzard_will_impact_washington_new_york_boston.html