The Rose Garden and White House happenings: Listening to voters’ concerns
DaveSchmidt said:
RealityForAll said:
Is the NYC murder rate going up or down, so far, for 2019?
According to the mayor, the rate is going up for 2019.
I don’t know what the murder rate is, but 299 is not a rate.
“Crime rates are indicators of reported crime activity standardized by population. They are more refined indicators for comparative purposes than are volume figures.”
https://www.ucrdatatool.gov/data/crimestatisticsfordecisionmaking.doc
meh - none of that matters. Crime has been consistently going down since the 90's, all over the country. (probably because of the greatly reduced incidence of lead poisoning, more than any other factor)
Experience during that time shows that there will be occasional rises, but the overall trend is down (as shown in ml1's graph).
To pretend otherwise, as RFA is doing, is a bad faith use of statistics.
the 70s saw an enormous spike in homicides in NYC. But in a city of more than 8 million people, the difference this year between 275 homicides and 300 is likely caused by random events. The mayor is right to address the increase though, in case there is some underlying trend starting. But there have been a few years that the rate blipped up, even during the nearly 30 year steep decline in the number of homicides.
If anything the NYT article mtierney linked to underlines a different problem that the city has. Neighborhoods are changing and gentrifying so quickly, and the price of housing is going up so fast, that many people are priced out of their neighborhoods. Homelessness is more of a problem in many affluent cities than it used to be because housing is so expensive. If anything, it's the paradox of cities that are NOT in decline. NYC is a city that is very much in demand as a place to live. No place is perfect, but it's a falsehood that NYC is in decline. Any of us who exited the subway in the Lower East Side or the East Village in the early '90s and saw the junkies roaming vacant lots, as we looked over our shoulders, and wondered what the shadows in the doorways were, would laugh at the idea that Manhattan is a dangerous place in 2019.
drummerboy said:
do you somehow think this validates mt's claim?
of course you do - why else post it?
Hmm, if a poster’s comment validates another poster’s claim, this is not the Party line? Have I got it right?
mtierney said:
drummerboy said:
do you somehow think this validates mt's claim?
of course you do - why else post it?
Hmm, if a poster’s comment validates another poster’s claim, this is not the Party line? Have I got it right?
in this case your claim was not validated (it can't be, because it's wrong), so what are you talking about?
mtierney said:
Have I got it right?
Spotted live in the wild: The telltale rhetorical question of someone who has no intention of learning anything.
drummerboy said:
RealityForAll said:
drummerboy said:
RealityForAll said:
‘Simply not acceptable’: Homicides in NYC up 9%, mayor vows to reverse trend
'Simply not acceptable' quote is from Mayor De Blasio press conference reported 12052019 in the Daily News.
Link to Daily News Article:https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-nyc-murders-jump-as-city-closes-out-2019-20191205-5qg6ugyfj5hxhgafuzll3vjrae-story.html
Brief excerpt from the above link:
With just four weeks to go before the end of the year, the NYPD is facing a worrying uptick in murders, making it the first time since 2017 that the city will end the year with more than 300 homicides.
By the end of November, the NYPD had investigated 299 killings this year — compared to 275 during the same period last year, a 9% increase.
“It’s simply not acceptable," Mayor de Blasio said. “Let me me clear: Everyone’s doing their job and everyone is digging deeper to get under the skin of this and address it. But we are not going to accept this situation [emphasis added].”
The number of shootings in the city also jumped, from 696 by this time last year to 720 so far this year, an increase of 3%.
do you somehow think this validates mt's claim?
of course you do - why else post it?
Is the NYC murder rate going up or down, so far, for 2019?
According to the mayor, the rate is going up for 2019.
Is the NYC murder rate going up a problem that needs to be addressed?
According to the mayor, “[the murder rate is] simply not acceptable", and "we are not going to accept this situation."
Do you disagree with the statistics and conclusions presented by the mayor?
Isn't the real problem from your perspective the following: Mayor De Blasio's POV on the NYC murder rate does NOT fit into your narrative?
look at mt's claim please. a blip in crime stats does not equate to "Anyone who has lived/worked in NYC after Mayor Rudy will tell you that under the wannabe president/current Mayor the city is in a decline
reminiscent of the ‘70s."Do you disagree that I am correct about that?
Isn't the real problem that you are creating a narrative that doesn't fit reality?
I have created no narrative. I have merely posted recent reporting from the Daily News about the mayor's press conference about the rising murder rate.
However, I do agree with you about mt's comment (namely, reminiscent of the ‘70s) being an exaggeration.
Similarly, another MOL participant (AKA ml1) has responded with: "It's pointing out that the facts are 180 degrees opposite of what you are stating." This implies that the NYC murder rate is instead going down rather than rising. This is more than a mere exaggeration. It is factually untrue.
The best that I can decode regarding the narrative utilized by the MOL in-group is the following: any claim that NYC crime is rising is to be denied and the person making the claim is to be accused of racism.
Conundrum presented: Mayor of NYC, Bill De Blasio, is advancing the rising NYC murder statistics (namely, murders in NYC are rising significantly for 2019 and this is unacceptable) which is not consistent with MOL in-group narrative on this issue.
DaveSchmidt said:
mtierney said:
Have I got it right?
Spotted live in the wild: The telltale rhetorical question of someone who has no intention of leaning anything.
Hey there punctuation and spelling hyper-authoritarian,
I believe that your point was that mt had no intention of learning (rather than leaning). Why are you so caught up with teaching others. IMHO, one must have a certain arrogance to believe that they are the one who should be teaching others when they are unable to spell the word "learning." Just my two cents ("$0.02")
ml1 said:
the 70s saw an enormous spike in homicides in NYC. But in a city of more than 8 million people, the difference this year between 275 homicides and 300 is likely caused by random events. The mayor is right to address the increase though, in case there is some underlying trend starting. But there have been a few years that the rate blipped up, even during the nearly 30 year steep decline in the number of homicides.
If anything the NYT article mtierney linked to underlines a different problem that the city has. Neighborhoods are changing and gentrifying so quickly, and the price of housing is going up so fast, that many people are priced out of their neighborhoods. Homelessness is more of a problem in many affluent cities than it used to be because housing is so expensive. If anything, it's the paradox of cities that are NOT in decline. NYC is a city that is very much in demand as a place to live. No place is perfect, but it's a falsehood that NYC is in decline. Any of us who exited the subway in the Lower East Side or the East Village in the early '90s and saw the junkies roaming vacant lots, as we looked over our shoulders, and wondered what the shadows in the doorways were, would laugh at the idea that Manhattan is a dangerous place in 2019.
NYC is not in decline for the rich. They can get their take-out delivered by Uber, or grab a cab to get home after dark.
My 17 year old grandchild has lived in the same apartment on the Upper Westside since birth. She was pushed to preschools, walked to kindergarten, elementary, middle school, and presently high school along the same neighbor streets her whole life. She and her parents will testify how it has gone from bad to better and now to bad again. One thing more in evidence are people sleeping in the street, public urination and defecation. She has witnessed a disturbed man wielding a knife, threatening people. We had better stop pointing fingers at LA or San Francisco homelessness.
The issue regarding the known and documented criminal incidents on the path through the park from school to student housing — a short cut — were known by the school authorities and a caution was issued to students. But, the path was much shorter than going by city streets. The school had one security guard on this path. Whose responsibility is it to secure the safety of residents?
drummerboy said:
DaveSchmidt said:
RealityForAll said:
Is the NYC murder rate going up or down, so far, for 2019?
According to the mayor, the rate is going up for 2019.
I don’t know what the murder rate is, but 299 is not a rate.
“Crime rates are indicators of reported crime activity standardized by population. They are more refined indicators for comparative purposes than are volume figures.”
https://www.ucrdatatool.gov/data/crimestatisticsfordecisionmaking.doc
meh - none of that matters. Crime has been consistently going down since the 90's, all over the country. (probably because of the greatly reduced incidence of lead poisoning, more than any other factor)
Experience during that time shows that there will be occasional rises, but the overall trend is down (as shown in ml1's graph).
To pretend otherwise, as RFA is doing, is a bad faith use of statistics.
I am not pretending about anything. I merely posted excerpts from the NYC mayor's press conference on the NYC murder rate rising. You are making false accusations about me because Bill De Blasio's POV on the NYC murder rate is NOT consistent with your narrative. If Bill De Blasio thought that the NYC murder rate increase was merely a statistical aberration or blip, I am sure that the mayor would have made that assertion (but such a dismissal of the NYC murder rate statistics was not reported).
RealityForAll said:
‘Simply not acceptable’: Homicides in NYC up 9%, mayor vows to reverse trend
'Simply not acceptable' quote is from Mayor De Blasio press conference reported 12052019 in the Daily News.
Link to Daily News Article:https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-nyc-murders-jump-as-city-closes-out-2019-20191205-5qg6ugyfj5hxhgafuzll3vjrae-story.html
Brief excerpt from the above link:
With just four weeks to go before the end of the year, the NYPD is facing a worrying uptick in murders, making it the first time since 2017 that the city will end the year with more than 300 homicides.
By the end of November, the NYPD had investigated 299 killings this year — compared to 275 during the same period last year, a 9% increase.
“It’s simply not acceptable," Mayor de Blasio said. “Let me me clear: Everyone’s doing their job and everyone is digging deeper to get under the skin of this and address it. But we are not going to accept this situation [emphasis added].”
The number of shootings in the city also jumped, from 696 by this time last year to 720 so far this year, an increase of 3%.
What a difference a few months makes...
New York on track to record lowest murder rate in decades
With half of 2019 on the books, New York is on track to its lowest homicide tally since the 1950s — even as shootings across the city spiked by 7%.
The city recorded 135 homicides as of June 30, compared to 156 over the first half of 2018, police statistics show. If the trend continues, the city could see 272 homicides by year’s end.
Brief excerpt from the above link:
The number of murders in the city bottomed out at 243 in 1950. The previous low since then was in 2017, when the city counted 292 killings.
Citywide, the NYPD responded to 361 shootings so far this year, with 414 victims. That’s up from 337 shootings with 411 victims in the first half of 2018.
“The NYPD will continue to focus on gun violence and the criminals who cause it in our unceasing efforts to ensure New York City remains the safest big city in America,” said NYPD spokesman Phillip Walzak.
This year’s drop in killings appear to be driven by significant decreases in the Bronx and the southern part of Brooklyn, even as murders spiked in Manhattan and Staten Island.
The Bronx has seen a 35% drop in slayings year-to-date, from 54 in 2018 to 35 in 2019.
Brooklyn has seen a 17% drop in homicides year to date, from 54 in 2018 to 45 in 2019.
Queens has seen a 10% drop in homicides so far in 2019 — a drop from 29 year-to-date in 2018 to 26 so far this year.
Borough-wide, Manhattan has seen 21 killings so far this year, compared to 15 in the first half of 2018 — a jump of 40%.
drummerboy said:
I love sweeping statements based on a datapoint of size one.
Link to NYC compstat: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-city.pdf
Actually, 2019 NYC murder rate for the entire year through 12082019 has risen 9.4%. With 303 ("a") murders in 2019 through 12082019. While 2018 had a total of 277 ("b") murders. Thus, Bill Deblasio's statistics (apparently derived from Compstat) are based on 580 data points (AKA, 580 dead bodies for 2018 and 2019 through 12082019). a+b=580 dead bodies. Thus, DB's sweeping statement is factually incorrect.
RealityForAll said:
drummerboy said:
DaveSchmidt said:
RealityForAll said:
Is the NYC murder rate going up or down, so far, for 2019?
According to the mayor, the rate is going up for 2019.
I don’t know what the murder rate is, but 299 is not a rate.
“Crime rates are indicators of reported crime activity standardized by population. They are more refined indicators for comparative purposes than are volume figures.”
https://www.ucrdatatool.gov/data/crimestatisticsfordecisionmaking.doc
meh - none of that matters. Crime has been consistently going down since the 90's, all over the country. (probably because of the greatly reduced incidence of lead poisoning, more than any other factor)
Experience during that time shows that there will be occasional rises, but the overall trend is down (as shown in ml1's graph).
To pretend otherwise, as RFA is doing, is a bad faith use of statistics.
I am not pretending about anything. I merely posted excerpts from the NYC mayor's press conference on the NYC murder rate rising. You are making false accusations about me because Bill De Blasio's POV on the NYC murder rate is NOT consistent with your narrative. If Bill De Blasio thought that the NYC murder rate increase was merely a statistical aberration or blip, I am sure that the mayor would have made that assertion (but such a dismissal of the NYC murder rate statistics was not reported).
you apparently don't understand what my "narrative" is.
nor have you dealt with the fact that a blip in statistics does not buttress mt's claim, which was the whole point of your initial post in the first place. you shouldn't have made that post at all, because it was orthogonal to what the issue was. it was a useless and diverting contribution to the conversation. which we are now wasting our time on.
RealityForAll said:
IMHO, one must have a certain arrogance to believe that they are the one who should be teaching others when they are unable to spell the word "learning."
Thanks. Always happy to be corrected. I fixed the spelling.
ridski said:
RealityForAll said:
‘Simply not acceptable’: Homicides in NYC up 9%, mayor vows to reverse trend
'Simply not acceptable' quote is from Mayor De Blasio press conference reported 12052019 in the Daily News.
Link to Daily News Article:https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-nyc-murders-jump-as-city-closes-out-2019-20191205-5qg6ugyfj5hxhgafuzll3vjrae-story.html
Brief excerpt from the above link:
With just four weeks to go before the end of the year, the NYPD is facing a worrying uptick in murders, making it the first time since 2017 that the city will end the year with more than 300 homicides.
By the end of November, the NYPD had investigated 299 killings this year — compared to 275 during the same period last year, a 9% increase.
“It’s simply not acceptable," Mayor de Blasio said. “Let me me clear: Everyone’s doing their job and everyone is digging deeper to get under the skin of this and address it. But we are not going to accept this situation [emphasis added].”
The number of shootings in the city also jumped, from 696 by this time last year to 720 so far this year, an increase of 3%.
What a difference a few months makes...
New York on track to record lowest murder rate in decades
With half of 2019 on the books, New York is on track to its lowest homicide tally since the 1950s — even as shootings across the city spiked by 7%.
The city recorded 135 homicides as of June 30, compared to 156 over the first half of 2018, police statistics show. If the trend continues, the city could see 272 homicides by year’s end.
Brief excerpt from the above link:
The number of murders in the city bottomed out at 243 in 1950. The previous low since then was in 2017, when the city counted 292 killings.
Citywide, the NYPD responded to 361 shootings so far this year, with 414 victims. That’s up from 337 shootings with 411 victims in the first half of 2018.
“The NYPD will continue to focus on gun violence and the criminals who cause it in our unceasing efforts to ensure New York City remains the safest big city in America,” said NYPD spokesman Phillip Walzak.
This year’s drop in killings appear to be driven by significant decreases in the Bronx and the southern part of Brooklyn, even as murders spiked in Manhattan and Staten Island.
The Bronx has seen a 35% drop in slayings year-to-date, from 54 in 2018 to 35 in 2019.
Brooklyn has seen a 17% drop in homicides year to date, from 54 in 2018 to 45 in 2019.
Queens has seen a 10% drop in homicides so far in 2019 — a drop from 29 year-to-date in 2018 to 26 so far this year.
Borough-wide, Manhattan has seen 21 killings so far this year, compared to 15 in the first half of 2018 — a jump of 40%.
Another attempt to protect the MOL in-group narrative on crime.
drummerboy said:
RealityForAll said:
drummerboy said:
DaveSchmidt said:
RealityForAll said:
Is the NYC murder rate going up or down, so far, for 2019?
According to the mayor, the rate is going up for 2019.
I don’t know what the murder rate is, but 299 is not a rate.
“Crime rates are indicators of reported crime activity standardized by population. They are more refined indicators for comparative purposes than are volume figures.”
https://www.ucrdatatool.gov/data/crimestatisticsfordecisionmaking.doc
meh - none of that matters. Crime has been consistently going down since the 90's, all over the country. (probably because of the greatly reduced incidence of lead poisoning, more than any other factor)
Experience during that time shows that there will be occasional rises, but the overall trend is down (as shown in ml1's graph).
To pretend otherwise, as RFA is doing, is a bad faith use of statistics.
I am not pretending about anything. I merely posted excerpts from the NYC mayor's press conference on the NYC murder rate rising. You are making false accusations about me because Bill De Blasio's POV on the NYC murder rate is NOT consistent with your narrative. If Bill De Blasio thought that the NYC murder rate increase was merely a statistical aberration or blip, I am sure that the mayor would have made that assertion (but such a dismissal of the NYC murder rate statistics was not reported).
you apparently don't understand what my "narrative" is.
nor have you dealt with the fact that a blip in statistics does not buttress mt's claim, which was the whole point of your initial post in the first place. you shouldn't have made that post at all, because it was orthogonal to what the issue was. it was a useless and diverting contribution to the conversation. which we are now wasting our time on.
Please explain your narrative so that I can better understand.
mtierney said:
NYC is not in decline for the rich. They can get their take-out delivered by Uber, or grab a cab to get home after dark.
My 17 year old grandchild has lived in the same apartment on the Upper Westside since birth. She was pushed to preschools, walked to kindergarten, elementary, middle school, and presently high school along the same neighbor streets her whole life. She and her parents will testify how it has gone from bad to better and now to bad again. One thing more in evidence are people sleeping in the street, public urination and defecation. She has witnessed a disturbed man wielding a knife, threatening people. We had better stop pointing fingers at LA or San Francisco homelessness.
The issue regarding the known and documented criminal incidents on the path through the park from school to student housing — a short cut — were known by the school authorities and a caution was issued to students. But, the path was much shorter than going by city streets. The school had one security guard on this path. Whose responsibility is it to secure the safety of residents?
not only does this go against all the crime statistics going back to the 70s, it also displays either a lack of awareness or a lack of memory of what the UWS was like in the late 80s and early 90s.
But I'm not surprised at this. There are people who will tell us the same thing about Maplewood. That it's going downhill, with crime on the rise. But in fact, the crime rate in Maplewood is much lower than it was in the 90s. People are notoriously bad at identifying trends, and making attributions. People tend to be overly swayed by recent events, and noteworthy events, while they are unable to see long term trends of things NOT happening.
RealityForAll said:
I have created no narrative. I have merely posted recent reporting from the Daily News about the mayor's press conference about the rising murder rate.
However, I do agree with you about mt's comment (namely, reminiscent of the ‘70s) being an exaggeration.
Similarly, another MOL participant (AKA ml1) has responded with: "It's pointing out that the facts are 180 degrees opposite of what you are stating." This implies that the NYC murder rate is instead going down rather than rising. This is more than a mere exaggeration. It is factually untrue.
The best that I can decode regarding the narrative utilized by the MOL in-group is the following: any claim that NYC crime is rising is to be denied and the person making the claim is to be accused of racism.
Conundrum presented: Mayor of NYC, Bill De Blasio, is advancing the rising NYC murder statistics (namely, murders in NYC are rising significantly for 2019 and this is unacceptable) which is not consistent with MOL in-group narrative on this issue.
you might need a new decoder ring. And maybe go back and read the initial claim mtierney made about NYC declining like it did in the 70s and see if you can re-decode the responses to her.
and my criticism of stop and frisk as ineffective is not a "narrative." It's based on the fact that nearly 90% of the people stopped were innocent of any wrongdoing. And the overwhelming majority of people stopped were black and Latino. It served no legitimate law enforcement purpose. So why would anyone call for a useless practice to be reinstated? What would the "narrative" be that supports reinstating the ineffective method of stop and frisk?
https://www.scribd.com/document/142769203/De-Blasio-Stop-Frisk-Reform
RealityForAll said:
Another attempt to protect the MOL in-group narrative on crime.
RealityForAll said:
I have created no narrative. I have merely posted recent reporting from the Daily News
RealityForAll said:
Is the NYC murder rate going up or down, so far, for 2019?
According to the mayor, the rate is going up for 2019.
Is the NYC murder rate going up a problem that needs to be addressed?
According to the mayor, “[the murder rate is] simply not acceptable", and "we are not going to accept this situation."
Do you disagree with the statistics and conclusions presented by the mayor?
Isn't the real problem from your perspective the following: Mayor De Blasio's POV on the NYC murder rate does NOT fit into your narrative?
actually the mayor's POV does fit with the overall points we're making about long term trends. This is a longer statement from DeBlasio to Brian Lehrer last week:
Well no, I would not gather, and I appreciate the question, Brian. I actually think it's really important not to conflate. Overall crime continues to go down, and the fact is the NYPD has been increasingly successful at disrupting gangs, gang takedowns, getting guns off the streets. We see increase in guns seizures. We clearly have a challenge, and we take it very seriously with this uptick in murders. Now this was not true for most of the year. It has been an uptick in the last few months. We take it very, very seriously. We're going to make the adjustments, including moving officers where the need is greatest, and different strategies and that's a classic use of the CompStat approach. And I am convinced, based on six years of crime going down and murder going down, that this issue will be addressed successfully. Progress, I hate to say it, it's not always linear, and these are real human's lives, we take it very, very seriously. But I would caution that folks see a trend, because the trend to talk about is the consistency of the last six years, and even more so the last 25 years, and those trend lines have been exceedingly specific.
https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/transcript-nyc-mayor-bill-de-blasio-appears-brian-lehrer-show
DaveSchmidt said:
RealityForAll said:
Is the NYC murder rate going up or down, so far, for 2019?
According to the mayor, the rate is going up for 2019.
I don’t know what the murder rate is, but 299 is not a rate.
“Crime rates are indicators of reported crime activity standardized by population. They are more refined indicators for comparative purposes than are volume figures.”
https://www.ucrdatatool.gov/data/crimestatisticsfordecisionmaking.doc
I merely quoted from the NY Daily News article which described 299 NYC killings (AKA murder) at the time of the mayor's press conference (on or about December 4th or 5th). The Compstat statistics for NYC murders through 12082019 are listed as 303 murders (sounds about right for a slow week apparently 4 additional murders since BD press conference when compared with Compstat for week ended 12082019). See: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-city.pdf It appears that Bill De Blasio used the Compstat murder data for the week ended 12012019 (rather than the 12082019 statistics set forth at the site linked above). AFAIK, the FBI reports murders by geographic location in two ways: i.) gross number of murders; and ii.) also rate per 100,000 people. A handy website called city-data.com provides reports of crime (the info appears to be downloaded from the FBI). See: http://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-New-York-New-York.html For 2018, NYC had the following statistics: i.) 295 murders for 2018; and ii.) a murder rate of 3.5 murders/100,000 people. Which implies the statisticians are using a population number of 8.4 million people for NYC for 2018 (295/3.5 x 100,000).
Assuming the murder rate continues at the same pace as earlier in the year (namely, 303 murders/342 days=0.886 murders/day) then we should expect an additional 20 murders (23 days x 0.886 murders/day=20.38 murders).through 12312019. Which means that projected NYC murders for 2019 should be 323 murders (303 murders through 12082019 + 20 additional murders). Assuming the same population for 2018 and 2019 gives use a murder rate of 3.84 murders/100,000 people (323 murders / 8.4 million people).
===================================================
Repost of my prior posting from today at 10:06 AM.
Simply not acceptable’: Homicides in NYC up 9%, mayor vows to reverse trend
'Simply not acceptable' quote is from Mayor De Blasio press conference reported 12052019 in the Daily News.
Link to Daily News Article:https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-nyc-murders-jump-as-city-closes-out-2019-20191205-5qg6ugyfj5hxhgafuzll3vjrae-story.html
Brief excerpt from the above link:
With just four weeks to go before the end of the year, the NYPD is facing a worrying uptick in murders, making it the first time since 2017 that the city will end the year with more than 300 homicides.
By the end of November, the NYPD had investigated 299 killings this year — compared to 275 during the same period last year, a 9% increase.
“It’s simply not acceptable," Mayor de Blasio said. “Let me me clear: Everyone’s doing their job and everyone is digging deeper to get under the skin of this and address it. But we are not going to accept this situation [emphasis added].”
The number of shootings in the city also jumped, from 696 by this time last year to 720 so far this year, an increase of 3%.
DaveSchmidt said:
RealityForAll said:
Is the NYC murder rate going up or down, so far, for 2019?
According to the mayor, the rate is going up for 2019.
I don’t know what the murder rate is, but 299 is not a rate.
“Crime rates are indicators of reported crime activity standardized by population. They are more refined indicators for comparative purposes than are volume figures.”
https://www.ucrdatatool.gov/data/crimestatisticsfordecisionmaking.doc
Crime rates are derived from volume figures (in the case of murder, the number of dead bodies). Thus, the crime rates can be no more refined than volume figures from which they are derived with regards to murder (as it is very difficult to misidentify murder as some other type of crime). Property crimes such as burglary and robbery can be more easily misclassified or misidentified which appears to be the genesis of the above quote from ucrdatatool.
Number and rate aren’t the same thing, and the difference can be consequential. If you’d rather stick with your current leaning, though, that’s fine by me.
DaveSchmidt said:
Number and rate aren’t the same thing, and the difference can be consequential. If you’d rather stick with your current leaning, though, that’s fine by me.
You may want to read my posting from 104PM again.
Executive summary of 104PM post: Gross number of murders ("A") for a particular year is divided by the NYC population (apparently, 8.4 million for 2018 murder statistics) in order to calculate the murder rate ("r").
(A/8.4 million people)=r
Applying above formula to the facts at hand for 2018:
295 murders*/8.4 million people= 3.5 murders/100,000 people
*- 295 murders in 2018 per Compstat statistics versus 299 reported by NY Daily News.
PS Take a look at the following link: http://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-New-York-New-York.html This link ties into the 2018 295 murders and 3.5/100k rate.
PPS 104PM has two attachments which tie into 295 murders for 2018. Take a look.
whatever data points one wants to use, it won't change the fact that two points in time can't describe a trend. All the charts and graphs and quotes and links aren't going to change that reality.
ml1 said:
whatever data points one wants to use, it won't change the fact that two points in time can't describe a trend. All the charts and graphs and quotes and links aren't going to change that reality.
Are you aware that the 2018 NYC murder rate increased moderately over the 2017 NYC murder rate? Now you have three points charting the 2017 NYC murder rate, 2018 NYC murder rate, and 2019 NYC murder rate through 12082019. Each rate increases over the prior period. Just saying.
RealityForAll said:
Are you aware that the 2018 NYC murder rate increased moderately over the 2017 NYC murder rate? Now you have three points charting the 2017 NYC murder rate, 2018 NYC murder rate, and 2019 NYC murder rate through 12082019. Each rate increases over the prior period. Just saying.
are you seriously trying to claim that an increase from 292 to 295 in a city of 8 million people is significant? When the 292 was the lowest number in over 70 years?
I can't decide if you're just trying to play devil's advocate, or if you actually think you're making a cogent point here.
ml1 said:
RealityForAll said:
Are you aware that the 2018 NYC murder rate increased moderately over the 2017 NYC murder rate? Now you have three points charting the 2017 NYC murder rate, 2018 NYC murder rate, and 2019 NYC murder rate through 12082019. Each rate increases over the prior period. Just saying.
are you seriously trying to claim that an increase from 292 to 295 in a city of 8 million people is significant? When the 292 was the lowest number in over 70 years?
I can't decide if you're just trying to play devil's advocate, or if you actually think you're making a cogent point here.
You have asserted that NYC murder rates are going down. Clearly not the case currently.
The last comparison years where the NYC murder rate went down was comparison between 2016 (335/3.9) versus 2017 (292/3.4). It appears that somewhere between 2017 and 2018 there was an inflection point* regarding the NYC murder rate year to year chart.
*- see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflection_point
PS When doing chart analysis, inflection points are often the most important points on the chart. Because new trends typically begin with inflection points.
I don’t know what the murder rate is, but 299 is not a rate.
“Crime rates are indicators of reported crime activity standardized by population. They are more refined indicators for comparative purposes than are volume figures.”
https://www.ucrdatatool.gov/data/crimestatisticsfordecisionmaking.doc