The Kavanaugh Hearing

It's interesting to see all of the comments about all of this being so "last minute" - you see it here and it's McConnell's favorite phrase. There is no time limit on these hearings, the only clock is the one in Republican's heads who want all of this done before the election. Of course, the complete opposite of the Garland situation.

My concern if this nomination fizzles is that Trump will nominate Amy Coney Barrett, who is more conservative than Kavanaugh on some issues, certainly social ones. I don't know what Kavanaugh would do with Wade, but she certainly seems to want to overturn it. Even if Dems win back the Senate in November, I'm sure McConnell will do everything he can to seat someone by the end of the year, and he does tend to prevail. I suppose it will be some kind of victory to see Kavanaugh go down, but not much.

apple44 said:

My concern if this nomination fizzles is that Trump will nominate Amy Coney Barrett, who is more conservative than Kavanaugh on some issues, certainly social ones. I don't know what Kavanaugh would do with Wade, but she certainly seems to want to overturn it. Even if Dems win back the Senate in November, I'm sure McConnell will do everything he can to seat someone by the end of the year, and he does tend to prevail. I suppose it will be some kind of victory to see Kavanaugh go down, but not much.

 IF the Democrats make gains in November, and IF Kavanaugh is replaced by Amy Coney Barrett, THEN the pressure on Murkowski and Collins will be much greater, to stand by their stated principles about confirming any Justice who could overturn Roe v. Wade.

Smedley said:
I think the accuser may be overplaying her hand. By insisting on an FBI investigation, she runs the risk of appearing to be politically motivated. 

 

It's actually the opposite of that.  She wants law enforcement to investigate in order to take the evidence gathering out of the political realm.  Otherwise she's giving testimony and taking questions from a committee of people who are all politically motivated. 

There are risks for both sides. Definite risk of blowback for GOP if they move forward with a vote after she declines, if in fact she declines. But there's also a risk the accuser comes off as calculating and politically motivated if she declines. Who knows how it will play out or who will blink first.

there are no risks at play here in the near term.  Anyone who would care about the GOP rushing Kavanaugh's confirmation through would have been upset about the treatment of the Garland nomination, or more immediately, about the refusal to release documents of Kavanaugh's.  And anyone inclined to vote Democratic this fall isn't going to fall for the right wing media smears of Ford.

Long term, maybe ALL of what the GOP has done over the past few decades from Whitewater to Benghazi, to the Swift Boaters to "what about her emails," to Garland, through Kavanaugh will energize some people to get out and vote and stay active after the election.  Or maybe not.

But what happens next week regarding the SCOTUS nomination won't do much by itself.

You obviously haven't heard that a classmate, Christina Miranda King, heard about the incident AT THE TIME, and said the incident was spoken about for a while. She signed a letter attesting this. The FBI could have investigated this.

ml1 said:
there are no risks at play here in the near term.  Anyone who would care about the GOP rushing Kavanaugh's confirmation through would have been upset about the treatment of the Garland nomination, or more immediately, about the refusal to release documents of Kavanaugh's.  And anyone inclined to vote Democratic this fall isn't going to fall for the right wing media smears of Ford.
Long term, maybe ALL of what the GOP has done over the past few decades from Whitewater to Benghazi, to the Swift Boaters to "what about her emails," to Garland, through Kavanaugh will energize some people to get out and vote and stay active after the election.  Or maybe not.
But what happens next week regarding the SCOTUS nomination won't do much by itself.

How are there no near-term risks?

Republicans want BK confirmed. If BK’s accuser opts out of Monday’s hearing and the GOP goes ahead with a vote, the risk is that one or more senators who would have voted yes, vote no on the premise that she didn’t get a fair shake.

Democrats want BK denied. If BK’s accuser opts out of Monday’s hearing, the risk is that she is seen as missing her chance, GOP goes ahead with a vote, and BK is confirmed whereas perhaps he wouldn’t have been if she told the world her story.

Morganna said:
Just heard that in high school he was in the 100 keg club. I believe it was in the yearbook. The goal being to drink that amount during senior year so probably had his share of blackouts. I think if his friend who was a witness and apparently wrote about his own alcoholism, is interviewed, there will be a shadow cast on Ks denial.
With the rehash of the Anita Hill testimony, I think congress will be afraid to confirm him.
I think he will withdraw.

100 kegs (even 1/2 kegs) over the course of a scholastic year; I somewhat surprised that the man isn't brain dead.

I think that whoever told you that is blowing smoke up your skirt.

TomR

campbell29 said:
Two thoughts


1) Only a group of men would think that by producing a list of people a man didn’t rape, is evidence that the man could not possibly be a rapist.  I’m
sure every man convicted of rape could find a list of women he didn’t rape.


2). Men don’t rape women because they want to date them, or respect their intellect, or think they will like them better when they see their majestic penis.  They do it because they think they have power or entitlement to do whatever they want, whether it’s at a party, in a parking lot, walking alone on a street, or in your house after you have told them no.  It’s not the sex, it’s the getting to do whatever I want because I am bigger and stronger.

Who has been the the subject of a rape accusation?

As for the groping accusation; I'm gonna wait and see how it plays out. In the realm of political correctness, the accusation, if substantiated, certainly makes Judge Kavanaugh less palatable.

For me, a high school kid's bad behavior doesn't seem to be as important as an adult's (think our President) similar behavior.

TomR

Tom_R said:

Morganna said:
Just heard that in high school he was in the 100 keg club. I believe it was in the yearbook. The goal being to drink that amount during senior year so probably had his share of blackouts. I think if his friend who was a witness and apparently wrote about his own alcoholism, is interviewed, there will be a shadow cast on Ks denial.
With the rehash of the Anita Hill testimony, I think congress will be afraid to confirm him.
I think he will withdraw.

100 kegs (even 1/2 kegs) over the course of a scholastic year; I somewhat surprised that the man isn't brain dead.
I think that whoever told you that is blowing smoke up your skirt.
TomR

According to the 1997 memoir by Kavanaugh’s high school friend Mark Judge, the 100 kegs were a scholastic-year goal for the parties they held every weekend and sometimes after school (plus kegs here and there like the one they sneaked into the parking lot during a basketball game). 

After football season, Judge wrote, they were up to 60.

Tom_R said:

Who has been the the subject of a rape accusation?

As for the groping accusation; I'm gonna wait and see how it plays out. In the realm of political correctness, the accusation, if substantiated, certainly makes Judge Kavanaugh less palatable.
For me, a high school kid's bad behavior doesn't seem to be as important as an adult's (think our President) similar behavior.
TomR

Mr. Tom_R - the accusation against Kavanaugh is a lot more than "groping".  Calling it "groping" is the pro-Kavanaugh camp's attempt to use language to undermine the seriousness of the charge.  

The allegation is that Kavanaugh and his friend lured a young woman to an empty room in the house, held her there against her will, covered her mouth to keep her from being heard, and tried to subject her to forcible sex.  That's called attempted rape, not "groping".

Smedley said:

How are there no near-term risks?
Republicans want BK confirmed. If BK’s accuser opts out of Monday’s hearing and the GOP goes ahead with a vote, the risk is that one or more senators who would have voted yes, vote no on the premise that she didn’t get a fair shake.
Democrats want BK denied. If BK’s accuser opts out of Monday’s hearing, the risk is that she is seen as missing her chance, GOP goes ahead with a vote, and BK is confirmed whereas perhaps he wouldn’t have been if she told the world her story.

 you are making an assumption that GOP Senators' minds aren't already made up.  I don't think there is a chance that any of them has considered and will consider not voting to confirm Kavanaugh.  All of this is theater on the part of the Republicans.  

The fact is that on the Republican side,  the incredible lack of transparency from the White House about this nominee hasn't swayed any of them to vote no.  Given the extreme seriousness of not knowing what is being hidden from them hasn't influenced them, why should anyone believe that a 35 year old accusation will be a deal breaker?  

nohero said:

Tom_R said:Who has been the the subject of a rape accusation?

As for the groping accusation; I'm gonna wait and see how it plays out. In the realm of political correctness, the accusation, if substantiated, certainly makes Judge Kavanaugh less palatable.
For me, a high school kid's bad behavior doesn't seem to be as important as an adult's (think our President) similar behavior.
TomR

Mr. Tom_R - the accusation against Kavanaugh is a lot more than "groping".  Calling it "groping" is the pro-Kavanaugh camp's attempt to use language to undermine the seriousness of the charge.  
The allegation is that Kavanaugh and his friend lured a young woman to an empty room in the house, held her there against her will, covered her mouth to keep her from being heard, and tried to subject her to forcible sex.  That's called attempted rape, not "groping".

The thing about Kavanaugh is that even if one believes that there's a statute of limitations on even a serious offense committed more than three decades ago, he hasn't redeemed himself since.  He is still sleazy (e.g., his shameful conduct on the Starr investigation), dishonest (e.g., his likely perjury during his testimony before being confirmed to the circuit court), cruel (e.g., his arguments in favor of torture during the Bush administration), and misogynistic (e.g., his opinions on women's use of contraceptives).  He's still the same guy he was in high school, but with a resume of professional achievement.  The fact that he's a good dad or has lots of friends is irrelevant to what his professional actions have indicated about his character.  The worst people among us have friends and family who love them.  It's how one rules on issues that affect powerless people you don't know that one's character is revealed.

If Kavanaugh had spent the past 3 decades as an advocate for the rights of women, the poor, the incarcerated, the accused, then maybe an attempted rape in HS could be considered out of character for a good man. But the way he's lived his professional life indicates to me that it was entirely in character for a person who is the embodiment of elite, rich, white male privilege.

I still think one of the most damning things K did was the first few words out of his mouth when he accepted the nomination, where he made a ridiculously untrue statement about how Trump had chosen K. Everyone knew he was lying, he knew we knew he was lying, yet that's how he chose to introduce himself.

The guy is slime.

Interesting piece from the Ledger. 

https://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2018/09/cory_bookers_lost_youth_it_looks_like_spartacus_ha.html

From an article Sen. Booker wrote while at Stanford:

"New Year's Eve 1984 I will never forget. I was 15. As the ball dropped, I leaned over to hug a friend and she met me instead with an overwhelming kiss. As we fumbled upon the bed, I remember debating my next 'move' as if it were a chess game. With the 'Top Gun' slogan ringing in my head, I slowly reached for her breast. After having my hand pushed away once, I reached my 'mark.'

"Our groping ended soon and while no 'relationship' ensued, a friendship did. You see, the next week in school she told me that she was drunk that night and didn't really know what she was doing."

If this was the allegation made against Kavanaugh would we feel differently?

DannyArcher said:
Interesting piece from the Ledger. 

https://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2018/09/cory_bookers_lost_youth_it_looks_like_spartacus_ha.html

From an article Sen. Booker wrote while at Stanford:
"New Year's Eve 1984 I will never forget. I was 15. As the ball dropped, I leaned over to hug a friend and she met me instead with an overwhelming kiss. As we fumbled upon the bed, I remember debating my next 'move' as if it were a chess game. With the 'Top Gun' slogan ringing in my head, I slowly reached for her breast. After having my hand pushed away once, I reached my 'mark.'
"Our groping ended soon and while no 'relationship' ensued, a friendship did. You see, the next week in school she told me that she was drunk that night and didn't really know what she was doing."
If this was the allegation made against Kavanaugh would we feel differently?

given that the accusation against Kavanaugh is attempted rape, and the story related here is not, I guess it would be different.

ml1 said:

Smedley said:

How are there no near-term risks?
Republicans want BK confirmed. If BK’s accuser opts out of Monday’s hearing and the GOP goes ahead with a vote, the risk is that one or more senators who would have voted yes, vote no on the premise that she didn’t get a fair shake.
Democrats want BK denied. If BK’s accuser opts out of Monday’s hearing, the risk is that she is seen as missing her chance, GOP goes ahead with a vote, and BK is confirmed whereas perhaps he wouldn’t have been if she told the world her story.

 you are making an assumption that GOP Senators' minds aren't already made up.  I don't think there is a chance that any of them has considered and will consider not voting to confirm Kavanaugh.  All of this is theater on the part of the Republicans.  
The fact is that on the Republican side,  the incredible lack of transparency from the White House about this nominee hasn't swayed any of them to vote no.  Given the extreme seriousness of not knowing what is being hidden from them hasn't influenced them, why should anyone believe that a 35 year old accusation will be a deal breaker?  

 So what is/was the point in BK's accuser coming forward? If all minds are made up and it's all just theater, she may as well just withdraw from public view. 

ml1 said:y?
given that the accusation against Kavanaugh is attempted rape, and the story related here is not, I guess it would be different.

The accusation by whom, you?  He hasn't been charged with anything.  Calling something "attempted rape" does not mean it meets the legal requirements of the Maryland or D.C. criminal code for that offense.  This is in no way meant to trivialize the accusation, but we have to be careful with our language.

If Kavanaugh did what he is accused of doing he was wrong.  If Booker did what he claims he did he was wrong.  Do these, presumably, isolated actions that occurred over 30 years ago define either man?  I'd hope not.

DannyArcher said:
Interesting piece from the Ledger. 

https://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2018/09/cory_bookers_lost_youth_it_looks_like_spartacus_ha.html

From an article Sen. Booker wrote while at Stanford:
"New Year's Eve 1984 I will never forget. I was 15. As the ball dropped, I leaned over to hug a friend and she met me instead with an overwhelming kiss. As we fumbled upon the bed, I remember debating my next 'move' as if it were a chess game. With the 'Top Gun' slogan ringing in my head, I slowly reached for her breast. After having my hand pushed away once, I reached my 'mark.'
"Our groping ended soon and while no 'relationship' ensued, a friendship did. You see, the next week in school she told me that she was drunk that night and didn't really know what she was doing."
If this was the allegation made against Kavanaugh would we feel differently?

 Big difference. I could elaborate but I think the difference is clear.

DannyArcher said:

ml1 said:y?
given that the accusation against Kavanaugh is attempted rape, and the story related here is not, I guess it would be different.

The accusation by whom, you?  He hasn't been charged with anything.  Calling something "attempted rape" does not mean it meets the legal requirements of the Maryland or D.C. criminal code for that offense.  This is in no way meant to trivialize the accusation, but we have to be careful with our language.
If Kavanaugh did what he is accused of doing he was wrong.  If Booker did what he claims he did he was wrong.  Do these, presumably, isolated actions that occurred over 30 years ago define either man?  I'd hope not.






 

 I responded too fast. Apparently the difference is not clear based on this post. How about Ford's claim that Kavanaugh put his hand over her mouth when she tried to scream and she was afraid that he would accidently kill her.

I know the difference between someone trying to go a bit further and being afraid for my life.

DannyArcher said:

ml1 said:y?
given that the accusation against Kavanaugh is attempted rape, and the story related here is not, I guess it would be different.

The accusation by whom, you?  He hasn't been charged with anything.  Calling something "attempted rape" does not mean it meets the legal requirements of the Maryland or D.C. criminal code for that offense.  This is in no way meant to trivialize the accusation, but we have to be careful with our language.
If Kavanaugh did what he is accused of doing he was wrong.  If Booker did what he claims he did he was wrong.  Do these, presumably, isolated actions that occurred over 30 years ago define either man?  I'd hope not.

 It's the accusation as described.  Whether he's been charged is irrelevant as to whether it's an accusation.  And the circumstances described are a description of an attempted rape.

[Edited to add]  Let's compare -

Booker: Making out and he groped her breasts.

Kavanaugh: Follow her as she looks for a bathroom, push her into an empty room, close the door, turn music up, cover her mouth, attempt to force himself on her.

Conclusion: It's stupid to bring up Booker in a discussion of Kavanaugh.

DannyArcher said:

If this was the allegation made against Kavanaugh would we feel differently?

Is what Booker describes different than dragging a woman into a room and covering her mouth while forcing yourself on her? I'd say yes.

Note Kavanaugh's incident is alleged, while Booker's is admitted. Folks are conveniently forgetting to mention that when making comparisons.

Smedley said:
Note Kavanaugh's incident is alleged, while Booker's is admitted. Folks are conveniently forgetting to mention that when making comparisons.

 No, that distinction was pretty obvious...

We can compare Kavanaugh with Booker, Trump and anyone else, but there is another significant difference - the job Kavanaugh is up for doesn't have any term definitions or limits. Once he is confirmed, 30, 35, 40 years from now, he'll likely still be in the role. So if this situation needs weeks or months to be investigated and litigated, that seems reasonable. Trump, Booker and others aren't far from facing elections which can correct any misgivings which people have towards them.

Smedley said:
Note Kavanaugh's incident is alleged, while Booker's is admitted. Folks are conveniently forgetting to mention that when making comparisons.

What Booker admitted included the phrase "our groping", meaning that he wasn't the only one participating. They made out, she told him later that week that while she liked him a lot, she would prefer to be friends, and they stayed friends.

Now if that woman were to come out and say it didn't happen that way, or that he tried to force himself on her again after that night then my opinion of Senator Booker would, appropriately, change. 

But if you read the rest of that article he wrote for The Stanford Daily, you'll see the reason why he tells that story, and not only how different this incident is from the one Blasey Ford describes, but how guilty he felt as a college kid that even that much had happened.

Blasey Ford says she'll talk next week but not Monday.

I'm guessing GOP will have to accommodate rather than say my way or the highway. 

Smedley said:
Note Kavanaugh's incident is alleged, while Booker's is admitted. Folks are conveniently forgetting to mention that when making comparisons.

 Yes but the question posed was about the nature of the incident, not whether it was admitted or alleged. It was:

If this was the allegation made against Kavanaugh would we feel differently

You're right -- I missed that. Mea culpa. 

If the GOP were smart, before we even find out any more information, they would convince Kavanaugh to withdraw. In any other case I would say they should enlist Trump's help but I don't see that as an option.

Fair or not, he would be a sacrificial lamb, perhaps to make up for the now often discussed fiasco with Anita Hill. The party appears to be losing women rapidly and this move might make them look better. As it has been pointed out, do women really want to see Hatch and Grassley questioning another woman who has made an accusation about the sexual behavior of a Republican SCOTUS pick?

I'm suggesting it would be smart, politically, even though I'm not in favor of sacrificial lambs. I'm the first one to complain about the ouster of Al Franken and  yes I clearly see all of the differences in their alleged actions.

But if I were a political strategist for the GOP, I would be lobbying that suggestion.