Meet the Mets (For Mets Fans Only!)
I'm mostly with FilmCarp on this. Being spotty but getting away with it, to me, signals that you're not as good as your stats might suggest, which stands to get exposed when it counts the most. See 2015 World Series and 2016 Wild Card.
On 12/26/18, I wrote: "Familia sucks. We will rue this signing." As I recall I was suspended for saying "rue."
With due respect, I'm kind of struggling to understand the "not as good as stats suggest" argument. Stats are facts, they don't "suggest" anything. If Familia goes in there and gives up three hard singles but no runs, what's wrong with that? The game is simply about scoring more tuns than the other team. Doesn't matter what happens along the way.
WxNut2.0 said:
With due respect, I'm kind of struggling to understand the "not as good as stats suggest" argument. Stats are facts, they don't "suggest" anything. If Familia goes in there and gives up three hard singles but no runs, what's wrong with that? The game is simply about scoring more tuns than the other team. Doesn't matter what happens along the way.
I think it boils down to the idea that a pitcher who gets into trouble is tempting fate, and that fate can always turn on a dime. Maybe, for instance, an escape required a stellar defensive play, or a batter who got just under a flat slider.
In other words, you’d rather have a pitcher who was more in control of his fate.
On the hitting side, stats like BABIP try to take some account of fate, but I don’t know if any pitching stats do. (I guess you could match any pitcher against, say, opponents’ BABIP, but that’s above my pay grade.)
You could also argue that stats don’t lie about fate, either: In the long term, it balances itself out.
But if you’re looking to make sense of the counterargument, I think it goes along those lines.
Mariano played 19 seasons and only led the league in saves 3 times. How many of the Todd Joneses and Bob Wickmans and Joe Borowskis would you take over Mariano even in seasons when they had better stats?
I have my own stats which matter far more than traditional stats. Familia makes me scared shitless 100% of the time that he walks onto the mound. That is the only stat that I care about.
I hate him.
Train_of_Thought said:
Mariano played 19 seasons and only led the league in saves 3 times. How many of the Todd Joneses and Bob Wickmans and Joe Borowskis would you take over Mariano even in seasons when they had better stats?
There's a sample size argument here. Familia was consistently good over the course of several seasons. Rivera was the same way, albeit over a longer stretch. Bob Wickman and Joe Borowski had a good season here and there.
A perfect example of why stats can be misleading was given above. Strikeouts per nine innings when talking about a relief pitcher. Guy comes in and whiffs three, using 20 pitches, thats great. Guy comes in with one man on first, gets a DP grounder and a pop out on three pitches, that is far, far better. My wife knows how long I have suffered as a Mets fan. She has suffered as well, even though she doesn't care about baseball. She watched me live through the Benitez and Familia years, and even she knew you could never count on either of them. I actually believe that Diaz might bounce back next year, but not Familia.
Effective immediately, the use of the term "With due respect" is forbidden on this thread.
Signed,
The Commissioner
sbenois said:
I have my own stats which matter far more than traditional stats. Familia makes me scared shitless 100% of the time that he walks onto the mound. That is the only stat that I care about.
I hate him.
I love you, man.
sbenois said:
I have my own stats which matter far more than traditional stats. Familia makes me scared shitless 100% of the time that he walks onto the mound. That is the only stat that I care about.
I hate him.
I, too, love you for this. With all rue respect.
kind of odd that we have baseball fans arguing against looking at stats. I'd say at least 95% of the arguments I've been involved in regarding baseball, have relied on statistical comparisons.
ml1 said:
I'd say at least 95% of the arguments I've been involved in regarding baseball, have relied on statistical comparisons.
I’d say at least 95% of the arguments I’ve been involved in regarding baseball are funner than that.
Stats have a place, but I think when it comes to relievers they have an irrelevant factor (IRF) of 65%
ml1 said:
kind of odd that we have baseball fans arguing against looking at stats. I'd say at least 95% of the arguments I've been involved in regarding baseball, have relied on statistical comparisons.
That's a mischaracterization. Can't speak for others, but I'm arguing against living solely by stats.
DaveSchmidt said:
I’d say at least 95% of the arguments I’ve been involved in regarding baseball are funner than that.
that doesn't mean the discussion isn't fun.
FilmCarp said:
Stats have a place, but I think when it comes to relievers they have an irrelevant factor (IRF) of 65%
for one year the stats on relievers can be misleading. But leaving out his injury-shortened 2017, Familia had pitched 300 innings in his previous 4 seasons. That's plenty of information to base a decision on. I think a 3 year contract for a reliever is a mistake. But there wasn't any information aside from some fans sense of agita to know Familia would have been that bad last year. To some extent he appeared to be one of those guys who couldn't figure out how to adapt to the balls flying out of the park in 2019. He gave up 7 HRs last year, which was more than he gave up in 2016, '17 and '18 combined. So maybe he's not going to figure it out in 2020 and be terrible again.
Train_of_Thought said:
Mariano played 19 seasons and only led the league in saves 3 times. How many of the Todd Joneses and Bob Wickmans and Joe Borowskis would you take over Mariano even in seasons when they had better stats?
and how is someone 30 or 40 years into the future going to know how good Mariano was? Probably by the stats. He pitched 19 seasons and had a career WHIP of 1.00 and a K/BB ratio of 4.10. Those are insane stats and tell you that he was many, many times better than anybody else whoever closed games.
Which reminds me -- Billy Wagner has a really good HoF case, although I don't hear his name mentioned much in that conversation. He pitched 16 seasons and averaged about 1.2 Ks per inning, and his career WHIP was 0.998. He finished with 422 saves which is 6th all time. Mets fans saw him when he was really good, but we didn't seem him during the years he was mostly unhittable. And talk about a guy going out on top, his last season in Atlanta he had 37 saves, 1.72 ERA and his WHIP was a ridiculous 0.865. Then he hung it up.
Not talking about looking back on a guy -- talking about in the moment when deciding to give him that 3-year deal.
And Billy Wagner??? I guess with some of the guys in you can discuss it, but I for one think there should be maybe...MAYBE...three relievers in the Hall. And none of them are Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith or Rich Gossage, so I'm a big no on Wagner.
And what happened to you hammering home for years that closers are the most overrated position in sports. Now Billy Wagner's a HOFer?
ml1 said:
FilmCarp said:
Stats have a place, but I think when it comes to relievers they have an irrelevant factor (IRF) of 65%
for one year the stats on relievers can be misleading. But leaving out his injury-shortened 2017, Familia had pitched 300 innings in his previous 4 seasons. That's plenty of information to base a decision on. I think a 3 year contract for a reliever is a mistake. But there wasn't any information aside from some fans sense of agita to know Familia would have been that bad last year. To some extent he appeared to be one of those guys who couldn't figure out how to adapt to the balls flying out of the park in 2019. He gave up 7 HRs last year, which was more than he gave up in 2016, '17 and '18 combined. So maybe he's not going to figure it out in 2020 and be terrible again.
The key stat above is that he pitched 300 innings in 4 seasons. Thats too much of a workload, and a breakdown should be predictable. As far as the home runs, Familia never pitched clean innings. He always walked a guy and gave up a hit. So once the ball starts leaving the yard a survivable solo HR becomes a 2 or 3 run shot.
Train_of_Thought said:
Not talking about looking back on a guy -- talking about in the moment when deciding to give him that 3-year deal.
And Billy Wagner??? I guess with some of the guys in you can discuss it, but I for one think there should be maybe...MAYBE...three relievers in the Hall. And none of them are Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith or Rich Gossage, so I'm a big no on Wagner.
And what happened to you hammering home for years that closers are the most overrated position in sports. Now Billy Wagner's a HOFer?
it is the most overrated position in sports. But it is a position that has existed in its current form for over 30 years, so the best among them deserve consideration for HoF. And leaving aside what innings Wagner pitched, all the other stats are outstanding for a guy who pitched that many years. So I think he belongs in the conversation at least.
FilmCarp said:
The key stat above is that he pitched 300 innings in 4 seasons. Thats too much of a workload, and a breakdown should be predictable. As far as the home runs, Familia never pitched clean innings. He always walked a guy and gave up a hit. So once the ball starts leaving the yard a survivable solo HR becomes a 2 or 3 run shot.
I'm not arguing for a 3 year deal for relievers. Just that Familia's meltdown in '19 wasn't predictable. By my recollection nobody here aside from ToT was down on the deal when it was made. My personal rule is that I don't second guess any moves if I wasn't criticizing them when they were made. Anybody can be right in hindsight.
It sucks being a Mets fan. Here we are in the middle of Hot Stove League with the winter meetings going on, and all we can do is talk about a mediocre reliever.
No one is talking about the Mets being in the mix for any major free agent, with the exception of Harvey whom we lost in a New York second.
mfpark said:
It sucks being a Mets fan. Here we are in the middle of Hot Stove League with the winter meetings going on, and all we can do is talk about a mediocre reliever.
No one is talking about the Mets being in the mix for any major free agent, with the exception of Harvey whom we lost in a New York second.
Indeed...why do we keep seeing the Mets and Mookie Betts in the papers? Do the Mets really have a shot? They would need to sign him after this coming season. Is it worth the risk and sacrifice?
NotoriousEAM said:
Indeed...why do we keep seeing the Mets and Mookie Betts in the papers? Do the Mets really have a shot? They would need to sign him after this coming season. Is it worth the risk and sacrifice?
It is not real. As far as I can tell, it is something sports writers and talk show nerds are drumming up because there is nothing else to talk about. Besides, Betts for one year at his cost and the cost in prospects is stupid. Oh, wait, it's the Mets we are talking about here.
Ever since Familia tried to quick pitch in the World Series when he clearly had Gordon overmatched I haven't trusted him. I don't know what signings people want them to be in on so far. I'm ok with them not offering that money to Wheeler. I was expecting a one year type of deal with Miley or Porcello possibly. I don't see them going after much hitting.
jfinnegan said:
Ever since Familia tried to quick pitch in the World Series when he clearly had Gordon overmatched I haven't trusted him. I don't know what signings people want them to be in on so far. I'm ok with them not offering that money to Wheeler. I was expecting a one year type of deal with Miley or Porcello possibly. I don't see them going after much hitting.
I'd like to see them try to stock the bullpen. Maybe one big signing and a bunch of lower-risk guys. Dellin Betances might be in their price range after missing a season. I like Collin McHugh if he's healthy. Had a great year in the bullpen in '18 when he was healthy. Last year he had some elbow issues and wasn't as good. So he might come inexpensively on a one-year deal. Joe Smith is another guy who's a FA and could be a good fit. And rounding out a trio of ex-Mets, Jerry Blevins is available. Julio Teheran is a FA starter who seems like he's a little under the radar. He's never started fewer than 30 games since he entered the Braves rotation, so he could pick up the slack as the 5th starter.
My nephew had to have ulnar nerve surgery and is going for rehab at the same place as Betances. His trainer said that Betances got hurt again because he hadn't been doing the right exercises. Those are two pretty serious injuries to come back from. He's the best option still available though. I like Teheran. I'd take him. Just think the Mets could have had Darren O'Day all these years if they didn't DFA him over ten years ago.
Wacha? I can't think of too many guys leaving the Cards and getting better.
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I disagree with this.
If you're looking at the right stats, they'll tell much more of the story than your personal observations. Ks per nine, BB per nine, swing and miss rate, hard contact rate -- those will tell you most of what you need to know about a pitcher.