Meet the Mets (For Mets Fans Only!)

jfinnegan said:

Considering deGrom so far is the only good long term deal they have had in over 10 years they are probably hesitant to do anything over 3 or 4 years. I can't imagine what Cole is going to get. Something tells me the Mets will pass on Cole, Strasburg and Bumgarner and go for somebody like Porcello or Wade Miley.

 That’s 100% what they’re going to do, unless Cohen infuses some money into the payroll in the next week. 


Let's recap:

ml1 said:

mfpark said:

 Wheeler will get $16mm for 4 years.  You read it here.

 If that’s all he gets, the Mets could match that. I’m thinking $90MM over 5 years. 

 I didn't think the Mets should sign him for 5/$90MM, so I'm not going to complain and second guess they didn't match 5/$100MM+


ml1 said:

Let's recap:

ml1 said:

mfpark said:

 Wheeler will get $16mm for 4 years.  You read it here.

 If that’s all he gets, the Mets could match that. I’m thinking $90MM over 5 years. 

 I didn't think the Mets should sign him for 5/$90MM, so I'm not going to complain and second guess they didn't match 5/$100MM+

 I would’ve happily given him that, personally. 


The Mets even screw up selling the team.  New owner -yay- but no changes for 5 years.  By then not one of the good players will still be on the team.


And I hate the new owner almost as much as the Wilpons. If only it were Rep. Steven Cohen. Or Seinfeld. 


FilmCarp said:

The Mets even screw up selling the team.  New owner -yay- but no changes for 5 years.  By then not one of the good players will still be on the team.

 Alonso is up for his first post-arb contract in five years. And Cohen is buying the team now; hes going to control 80%. The Wilpons are staying around in name only, the money will be coming from Cohen. Every writer is reporting we can expect to see spending increase almost immediately.


WxNut2.0 said:

FilmCarp said:

The Mets even screw up selling the team.  New owner -yay- but no changes for 5 years.  By then not one of the good players will still be on the team.

 Alonso is up for his first post-arb contract in five years. And Cohen is buying the team now; hes going to control 80%. The Wilpons are staying around in name only, the money will be coming from Cohen. Every writer is reporting we can expect to see spending increase almost immediately.

 I read that both Wilpons were staying in their positions for five years.  I'd love to be wrong, but they need to be out.


From ESPN:. Sterling Partners, the company that runs the Mets, and Cohen released a statement on Wednesday, confirming the talks. The announcement said that as part of the agreement "Fred Wilpon will remain in the role of the Control Person and CEO for five years and Jeff Wilpon will remain in his role of Chief Operating Officer for the five-year period as well."


FilmCarp said:

From ESPN:. Sterling Partners, the company that runs the Mets, and Cohen released a statement on Wednesday, confirming the talks. The announcement said that as part of the agreement "Fred Wilpon will remain in the role of the Control Person and CEO for five years and Jeff Wilpon will remain in his role of Chief Operating Officer for the five-year period as well."

 Maybe they'll be more likely to spend someone else's money.


It's not just spending, though.  It's intelligent spending.  Signing Familia for three years was not an example of intelligent spending.  


FilmCarp said:

WxNut2.0 said:

FilmCarp said:

The Mets even screw up selling the team.  New owner -yay- but no changes for 5 years.  By then not one of the good players will still be on the team.

 Alonso is up for his first post-arb contract in five years. And Cohen is buying the team now; hes going to control 80%. The Wilpons are staying around in name only, the money will be coming from Cohen. Every writer is reporting we can expect to see spending increase almost immediately.

 I read that both Wilpons were staying in their positions for five years.  I'd love to be wrong, but they need to be out.

 They are staying on, yes. But it wont be their money. According to most every beat writer, their involvement in the day-to-day will be nominal.


FilmCarp said:

It's not just spending, though.  It's intelligent spending.  Signing Familia for three years was not an example of intelligent spending.  

 Fair dinkum.


FilmCarp said:

It's not just spending, though.  It's intelligent spending.  Signing Familia for three years was not an example of intelligent spending.  

 Okay but to be fair, Familia was really good from 2014-2018. He was an adventure sometimes, but he also posted an ERA+ of 157, 207, 158, 96 and 126 over that period. He averaged ~1.25 WAR over that time as well, which is pretty good for a guy who pitched one inning per game. There was no reason to believe he'd totally fall off a cliff last year.


WxNut2.0 said:

 Okay but to be fair, Familia was really good from 2014-2018. He was an adventure sometimes, but he also posted an ERA+ of 157, 207, 158, 96 and 126 over that period. He averaged ~1.25 WAR over that time as well, which is pretty good for a guy who pitched one inning per game. There was no reason to believe he'd totally fall off a cliff last year.

yes.  It's easy to second guess now, but without a crystal ball, there wouldn't have been a way to know hed' totally lose his control from one season to the next.  He went from 3.5 BB/9 to 6.3 BB/9 from 2018 to 2019.  And probably for the same reason his HR/9 went from 0.4 to 1.1. 


ml1 said:

WxNut2.0 said:

 Okay but to be fair, Familia was really good from 2014-2018. He was an adventure sometimes, but he also posted an ERA+ of 157, 207, 158, 96 and 126 over that period. He averaged ~1.25 WAR over that time as well, which is pretty good for a guy who pitched one inning per game. There was no reason to believe he'd totally fall off a cliff last year.

yes.  It's easy to second guess now, but without a crystal ball, there wouldn't have been a way to know hed' totally lose his control from one season to the next.  He went from 3.5 BB/9 to 6.3 BB/9 from 2018 to 2019.  And probably for the same reason his HR/9 went from 0.4 to 1.1. 

 This. Relievers are so volatile. If you want to argue giving ANY reliever a 3 year deal is risky, I agree. But nothing lead anyone to believe Familia would forget how to pitch.


ml1 said:

 the new Lagares

 Better hitter than Lagares (not saying much), and arguably better center fielder.  One year rental until he hits the free agent market in 2021.  Certainly not the answer this team needs, but a decent deal to shore up center field a bit more.  He also was a teammate of Beltran, which may have influenced the deal.


mfpark said:

ml1 said:

 the new Lagares

 Better hitter than Lagares (not saying much), and arguably better center fielder.  One year rental until he hits the free agent market in 2021.  Certainly not the answer this team needs, but a decent deal to shore up center field a bit more.  He also was a teammate of Beltran, which may have influenced the deal.

 Lets hope hes a better hitter -- he has a lower career OPS+...


WxNut2.0 said:

 This. Relievers are so volatile. If you want to argue giving ANY reliever a 3 year deal is risky, I agree. But nothing lead anyone to believe Familia would forget how to pitch.

 I'm not going to agree about Familia.  Throw all the numbers you want, Familia was a nailbiter adventure every time he pitched, even while he was racking up saves.  He always threw hard, he seldom threw smart.  A lot of people, myself included, were not sorry to see him traded.  There is more to the game than stats.


mfpark said:

 Better hitter than Lagares (not saying much), and arguably better center fielder.  One year rental until he hits the free agent market in 2021.  Certainly not the answer this team needs, but a decent deal to shore up center field a bit more.  He also was a teammate of Beltran, which may have influenced the deal.

 statistically it would be difficult to find two more similar players than Lagares and Marisnick.  In his favor, Marisnick is a couple of years younger, which is meaningful at a position where guys tend to decline after age 30.


FilmCarp said:

WxNut2.0 said:

 This. Relievers are so volatile. If you want to argue giving ANY reliever a 3 year deal is risky, I agree. But nothing lead anyone to believe Familia would forget how to pitch.

 I'm not going to agree about Familia.  Throw all the numbers you want, Familia was a nailbiter adventure every time he pitched, even while he was racking up saves.  He always threw hard, he seldom threw smart.  A lot of people, myself included, were not sorry to see him traded.  There is more to the game than stats.

 I mean, sure. But at the end of the day the stats tell the story. If you load the bases every game but then strike out the next three batters, your ERA is still 0.00 no matter how much of an adventure it was to get there. Preventing runs is the only thing that matters if you're a pitcher. Nothing else.


Reinforces business as usual. Quashes any Mookie Betts fantasies.


WxNut2.0 said:

 I mean, sure. But at the end of the day the stats tell the story. If you load the bases every game but then strike out the next three batters, your ERA is still 0.00 no matter how much of an adventure it was to get there. Preventing runs is the only thing that matters if you're a pitcher. Nothing else.

 I agree with this.  Human beings are notoriously poor at remembering things without bias.  We remember the saves where a guy loaded the bases and gave us agita much more than we remember the three-up-and-down saves.  In the final analysis, we look at stats because they don't have our human biases.  And a guy who saves 51 games in one year is certainly doing something right.


ml1 said:

WxNut2.0 said:

 I mean, sure. But at the end of the day the stats tell the story. If you load the bases every game but then strike out the next three batters, your ERA is still 0.00 no matter how much of an adventure it was to get there. Preventing runs is the only thing that matters if you're a pitcher. Nothing else.

 I agree with this.  Human beings are notoriously poor at remembering things without bias.  We remember the saves where a guy loaded the bases and gave us agita much more than we remember the three-up-and-down saves.  In the final analysis, we look at stats because they don't have our human biases.  And a guy who saves 51 games in one year is certainly doing something right.

 Exactly. Its easy to remember the ten blown saves but forget that bowling ball, untouchable sinker. My brother likes to say that Familia tends to "take the scenic route" sometimes, but more often than not (historically), he reaches the destination.


Marisnick couldn't hit even when he knew what pitches were coming. I would have preferred Pillar, but that would have cost some money and he has been declining defensively. I can't see Cohen waiting around for 5 years not doing anything if they're losing and not making any moves to improve. 


WxNut2.0 said:

 Exactly. Its easy to remember the ten blown saves but forget that bowling ball, untouchable sinker. My brother likes to say that Familia tends to "take the scenic route" sometimes, but more often than not (historically), he reaches the destination.

 I still disagree.  If you come in bases empty and get three quick outs everyone gets to go home.  Familia added 15 extra minutes to the game, and by putting runners on he added the possibility of an error scoring a run.  Stats don't lie, but they don't tell the whole story, either.


jfinnegan said:

Marisnick couldn't hit even when he knew what pitches were coming. I would have preferred Pillar, but that would have cost some money and he has been declining defensively. I can't see Cohen waiting around for 5 years not doing anything if they're losing and not making any moves to improve. 

 Just a reminder that we got J.D. Davis from the Astros and that worked out OK. 


FilmCarp said:

WxNut2.0 said:

 Exactly. Its easy to remember the ten blown saves but forget that bowling ball, untouchable sinker. My brother likes to say that Familia tends to "take the scenic route" sometimes, but more often than not (historically), he reaches the destination.

 I still disagree.  If you come in bases empty and get three quick outs everyone gets to go home.  Familia added 15 extra minutes to the game, and by putting runners on he added the possibility of an error scoring a run.  Stats don't lie, but they don't tell the whole story, either.

 Except that’s the point. Possible runs are just that — possible. If they don’t score, no matter how high stress it is, that’s all that matters. I don’t care if he takes three hours to get three outs, so long as he prevents runs. Familia was until last year, good at that. 


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