Maybe this will fix Greece

In most debt situations, there is plenty of blame to go around. However, Greece bears ultimate responsibility and will bear the heaviest cost. So let's stop the finger pointing.

We will see similar problems here in New Jersey as the underfunded pension chickens start to come home to roost. As I said earlier, I would hate to be counting on a state pension in the future.

Perhaps the public hectoring of Tsipras worked

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/10/world/europe/greek-debt-talks.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=photo-spot-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

There was just no more wiggle room. In three years we will go through this once again.

1. The majority no-voters must be feeling either pretty pissed or pretty stupid right now. Or both.

They are agreeing to the same budget goals as before. But because of the tax impact of the economic losses due to the bank holiday the cuts will need to be greater.

ctrzaska said:

1. The majority no-voters must be feeling either pretty pissed or pretty stupid right now. Or both.

No...........he played the cards he was dealt and came up short.

That left the choice of leaving the EU and accepting massive loses quickly on every conceivable economic basis or accepting terms , taking some losses but buying three years of some stability.

After the three years I can only see going another round of what just transpired.. Not a good ending but again you play the cards you are dealt. Or in Greece you play backgammon.

author said:

ctrzaska said:

1. The majority no-voters must be feeling either pretty pissed or pretty stupid right now. Or both.

No...........he played the cards he was dealt and came up short.
That left the choice of leaving the EU and accepting massive loses quickly on every conceivable economic basis or accepting terms , taking some losses but buying three years of some stability.
After the three years I can only see going another round of what just transpired.. Not a good ending but again you play the cards you are dealt. Of in Greece you play backgammon.

If the Eurozone starts to experience some economic growth, I imagine more generous solutions to the Greek debt problem will be considered. I have to believe that some or most of the reason for taking a hard line with Greece was to avoid a situation where Italy, Spain or Portugal might consider leaving the Eurozone.

tjohn said:

author said:

ctrzaska said:

1. The majority no-voters must be feeling either pretty pissed or pretty stupid right now. Or both.

No...........he played the cards he was dealt and came up short.
That left the choice of leaving the EU and accepting massive loses quickly on every conceivable economic basis or accepting terms , taking some losses but buying three years of some stability.
After the three years I can only see going another round of what just transpired.. Not a good ending but again you play the cards you are dealt. Of in Greece you play backgammon.

If the Eurozone starts to experience some economic growth, I imagine more generous solutions to the Greek debt problem will be considered. I have to believe that some or most of the reason for taking a hard line with Greece was to avoid a situation where Italy, Spain or Portugal might consider leaving the Eurozone.

Very much so......right now England has a strong movement within to leave the EU......they never adopted the Euro. The smaller, weaker states have no real say in most matters.

But there is some real sympathy as to what happened within France and a few other places.

And with the Greeks, cousin Putin is always lurking in the back ground.

ctrzaska said:
Well I think that's it. Everyone between the ages of 10 and 25 leaves for Turkey and voila! Instant decrease.
Seriously author, I simply can't see it at ALL. The math just doesn't work.

Projections for that period were over a number of years but I could not find my reference.

Don't look for any number of Greeks to leave for Turkey for work. The Turkish community living and working in Germany is large. The Greek community is also large there and in Austria and as far as Australia.

tjohn said:

author said:

ctrzaska said:

1. The majority no-voters must be feeling either pretty pissed or pretty stupid right now. Or both.

No...........he played the cards he was dealt and came up short.
That left the choice of leaving the EU and accepting massive loses quickly on every conceivable economic basis or accepting terms , taking some losses but buying three years of some stability.
After the three years I can only see going another round of what just transpired.. Not a good ending but again you play the cards you are dealt. Of in Greece you play backgammon.

If the Eurozone starts to experience some economic growth, I imagine more generous solutions to the Greek debt problem will be considered. I have to believe that some or most of the reason for taking a hard line with Greece was to avoid a situation where Italy, Spain or Portugal might consider leaving the Eurozone.

I'd say it's far, far less about leaving than being aeriously put off by what they agreed to vs a Greek deal, and asking for similar conditions in return (e.g.interest rate cuts, forgiveness, etc).

So i t seems to be over. With conditions deteriorating in Greece at the height of the summer tourist season it was like negotiating with both feet on an ice berg.

I don't see how things will be any different in three years when it comes time once again to pay the piper.......but stranger things have happene.

Can Greece meeting the government budget include pension payments out of the current budget? If not, what size economy would be required to support the government budget?

The worrying thing about Greece is that it is like seeing our future. As a nation, we have totally mortgaged the future at every turn and it is not clear to me how we plan to get this nation back on sound financial footing. We have neglected infrastructure. We have underfunded pension obligations. Young people start life with heavy college debt loads.

Debt services sinks even the best of intentions.

Debt is the only thing keeping Greeks from starving.

dave said:
Debt is the only thing keeping Greeks from starving.

Debt is what cause starvation all across the world

The Haves don't experience it............for the Have nots it is an eternal condition.

Marx boiled it down to one sentence.

That makes about as much sense as holding a nation-wide referendum and doing the opposite of public opinion.

dave said:
That makes about as much sense as holding a nation-wide referendum and doing the opposite of public opinion.

There really was no choice in the immediacy. Greece could leave the EU.......abandon the Euro and spend years recovering a huge amount of their net worth. It could be done but they were already screwed once when the Euro was adopted . There have been further and further losses over the past five years or so to the point where the infrastructure was collapsing.

So they chose more or the same with I guess somehow things will get better and they will move away from this circle of debt. It will not work in my view point but no one in office asked me.

Besides I bank in the good ole USA..........although I took a bath one time in an investment in the Bank of Greece........and lost an equal amount in the Bank of America.

And on the cultural front

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10201715086869329&set=a.3619491216320.2158531.1545098329&type=1&theater

author said:

dave said:
That makes about as much sense as holding a nation-wide referendum and doing the opposite of public opinion.

There really was no choice in the immediacy. Greece could leave the EU.......abandon the Euro and spend years recovering a huge amount of their net worth. It could be done but they were already screwed once when the Euro was adopted . There have been further and further losses over the past five years or so to the point where the infrastructure was collapsing.

Sick of hearing how the Euro is so much the blame for the screwing of Greece.

Was Greece forced into the EU and Euro? If anything, Greece lied to get in with EU Europe abetting. If the Euro is so horribly bad, one would think all countries under the Euro would be suffering like Greece.

The Euro does take away money supply adjustment from its member nations which may have been a blessing for Greece. Considering their economy, their tax collection base, that if instead of the Euro they kept the Drachma who is to say they they would not have ended with hyperinflation such as in post WW 1 Germany or now in Zimbabwe?

Greeks blaming the Euro is like drunks blaming the local liquor stores. Its time they stop whining and accept some responsibility.

Oops !!!

I wonder if the German legislature will approve this, the third bailout.

Prominent German Economist Rejects Greek Deal
Hans-Werner Sinn, president of the Ifo Institute for Economic Researchin Munich who has criticized the German government for bailing out Greece, firmly rejected the latest agreement forged in Brussels.
“Many people believe that the paper presented is good for Greece,” he said in a statement. “It is not. While it will cost the rest of Europe a lot of money, all this money won’t be enough to make the Greeks happy.”
Greece is too expensive and uncompetitive, he said. “It makes no sense to want to pour in money to try to solve the country’s problems,” he added. “That won’t create jobs.”

http://www.cesifo-group.de/de/ifoHome/policy/Sinns-Corner.html#Eurokrise

ETA: Paper on the Greek tragedy http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/Forum-Special-2015-June_1.pdf

Interesting commentary towards the end of the article concerning other European nations becoming uncomfortable with Merkel that she and Germany run the show and there is no room for other thought.

Sounds familiar.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/07/13/greece-deal-analysis-delamaide/30076523/

And more concerning the discomfort within the EU by Merkel and her crew

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-13/greek-deal-makes-europe-more-german-but-at-what-cost-

I'm waiting for the comments about Germany losing WWII but still unifying and taking over Europe...

ParticleMan said:
I'm waiting for the comments about Germany losing WWII but still unifying and taking over Europe...

Ah, the irony of World Wars I and II. Under different management, Germany could be where she is now without the loss of German territory and the mind-boggling destruction of the wars.

tjohn said:

ParticleMan said:
I'm waiting for the comments about Germany losing WWII but still unifying and taking over Europe...

Ah, the irony of World Wars I and II. Under different management, Germany could be where she is now without the loss of German territory and the mind-boggling destruction of the wars.

They are efficient. I think they will need to do a little PR and Merkel will have to at least fake a little humility.

The EU is getting a little frayed at the edges and they are not all happy campers.

Want my prediction? Well here it is anyway........Two years and out

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-13/greece-should-just-quit?cmpid=yhoo

author said:
They are efficient. I think they will need to do a little PR and Merkel will have to at least fake a little humility.
The EU is getting a little frayed at the edges and they are not all happy campers.

Why should Merkel fake humility? Its not that her position was alone. If anything, she was the overwhelming majority:

Italy's finance minister says that only Italy, France and Cyprus supported a compromise deal with Greece, while the rest of the eurozone nations fell in behind Germany's hard-line position.

Since February there were two lines of thought in Greece. One line was that a deal with austerity should be worked on quickly. The other line, led by their recently resigned and disgraced finance minister, was to brazen it out, wait until the last minute under the assumption they would get a better deal because the Eurozone was unwilling the lose Greece, no matter what. Didn't work out as planned. The result was that the Greek economy tanked more and instead of needing 50 billion in February they now need 90 billion with the austerity measures being much harsher. You can't really fix stupid:

Timing is everything, says Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan, and Greece got its timing all wrong during the bailout negotiations.
After the 19 eurozone leaders reached a tentative deal to keep Greece from financial collapse on Monday, Noonan says Greece could have been in a much better situation had it clinched a deal much earlier — like in February, when it faced a first bailout deadline.
He says: "It would have been much easier to settle this last February, and it would have been much easier to settle this a fortnight ago," when Greece shocked its eurozone allies by calling a referendum and seeking to reject their latest proposals.

Those in the European Union who are not in the Eurozone are breathing a sigh of relief. The Brits are as hardnosed with their money as the Germans would like to be:

British Treasury chief George Osborne came to a European Union meeting of finance minister with a clear message — don't expect Britain, which is not part of the euro, to pay for any of Greece's rescue money.

Most likely the can was kicked down the road three years whereupon Greece will owe 400 billion.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/07/14/world/europe/ap-eu-greece-bailout-the-latest.html

I have maintained all along that this bailout business will not work. After two have dug the country deeper into a financial hole you would think the world would recognize that fact.

I would rather see a clean break from the EU now. Yes there will be difficult years but better now, allow some real eventual growth than in three years have another huge bill come do which they will not be able to pay.

By the way, there is growing dissatisfaction within GB with their own membership in the Eu.

Watch for them to be heading for the exit doors within the next few years.

And even in Germany.............there are some who feel shame with the outcome.

http://news.yahoo.com/germans-lament-diplomatic-disaster-greece-talks-062206874.html

And yet another view

http://www.vox.com/2015/6/29/8862583/greek-financial-crisis-explained