Iowa predictions?

I would like to see a lottery to determine the order of primaries.

Another cool idea would be to NOT share result until after a few primaries.  so - show results after - Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina have happened.

So, as things stand who loses who gains from the situation in Iowa?

To my mind, the biggest loser is Buttigieg, who put a ton of resources into Iowa, seems to have performed well, but essentially gets no return on his investment.

The biggest winner has to be Biden who seems to have suffered what would otherwise have been a humiliating defeat, failing to even qualify in many districts.  With Iowa reduced to a foot note, South Carolina will weigh much more heavily and, as we all know, Biden is big with South Carolinians, especially those with the initials DS.

I have absolutely no idea what's going on or what will happen and neither does anyone else!

BTW the idiot in the White House has tweeted that Iowa should continue its "tradition" of the Caucus.

Of course, I love watching these caucuses and recorded both CSpan which covered a caucus of about 350 people and CSpan2 which covered a Caucus in Milo, IA of about 50 people.

Real people meeting with their neighbors to discuss and have a say in who they want to lead the country. And every single one of them is dedicated to defeating Donald Trump!

DaveSchmidt said:

BG9 said:

But no backup plan? A simple phone in backup?

They had a phone-in backup. It was swamped.

When I meant phone backup, I mean mirroring the phone system they used previously. Not a phone line or two that got swamped. 

I highly doubt those lines were even designated backup in case of failure. More likely the usual repusce of "call us if you have a question." A real backup would have handled the calls.

Partial returns at 5pm?  That's just weird.

Klinker said:

So, as things stand who loses who gains from the situation in Iowa?

To my mind, the biggest loser is Buttigieg, who put a ton of resources into Iowa, seems to have performed well, but essentially gets no return on his investment.

The biggest winner has to be Biden who seems to have suffered what would otherwise have been a humiliating defeat, failing to even qualify in many districts.  With Iowa reduced to a foot note, South Carolina will weigh much more heavily and, as we all know, Biden is big with South Carolinians, especially those with the initials DS.

 Again with the stalking.....and the unsubstantiated claims that he has a effin' clue about who I support. Oh well, consider the source.

Dennis_Seelbach said:

 Again with the stalking.....and the unsubstantiated claims that he has a effin' clue about who I support. Oh well, consider the source.

 Are you claiming that I am "stalking" you?  The guy who follows me around and hurls vile insults at me just because I don't have a man crush on creepy old Great Uncle Grabby?

LOL!

The caucus is like Iowa’s thing. This is like Pasadena screwing up the Rose Bowl, or Hawaii screwing up tourism, or Maine screwing up lobster. Really embarrassing for them. 

The grabby remarks are so ridiculous.  Can you please show me one court case where Joe was found guilty of inappropriate grabbing?

The Biden rhetoric from you has led me to support him more.  When people can't argue with a candidate on substance then it turns into a Trumpian attack more than anything else.

There certainly have been plenty of people who have complained about unwanted touching from Biden and his half assed non apologies have been entirely inadequate.

I know that this stuff just isn't on the radar for a lot of folks but, for those of us who care, it is a complete non starter.  The guy is a creep.

Besides, if you don't like hearing about Old Joe's wandering hands from me think how its going to sound when it is blaring out of your TV 24/7.  This is why Trump knows he can beat Biden.  They will spend 10s of millions of dollars to make sure every voter in the swing states thinks Joe is a corrupt pervert and that his son the cokehead is even worse. All the while, Joe will wander around the stage with a dazed look on his face, drooling on his shoes.

The guy can't win.  The sooner you folks accept that truth the sooner we can step away from the precipice and get on with selecting a candidate who can.

the guy is far from a creep - but this tactic like I said is incredibly shallow and Trumpian in nature.  

To be clear, I don't think Biden is corrupt or a pervert, per se.  What he is is a man who thinks that, because of his position in life, he is entitled to invade people's personal space and to touch them in unwanted ways without a moments thought or regret.  Men may have conducted themselves that way at some point back when the dinosaurs roamed the earth but, in this day and age, IT IS SIMPLY UNACCEPTABLE.

(can we get a barfing emoji?)

jamie said:

the guy is far from a creep - but this tactic like I said is incredibly shallow and Trumpian in nature.  

 I like how you think it is a tactic instead of a visceral reaction.  The guy makes me sick.  For real.

You can call me a liar if you want but I know FOR A FACT that a lot of other people out there feel exactly the way I do.

So - if I start saying that Warren makes me sick every other comment - that would be a smart tactic?  Substance is no longer needed.  Like I said - this is Trump 101.

Again - show me the case where Biden was brought to court over this.  Surely there must be one.

And who else on here has ever called him uncle grabby? 

I also can say anything FOR A FACT and make it believable.  I know this FOR A FACT.  I can also tell you FOR A FACT that Warren is not looking strong in Iowa - maybe she was grabbing people also?  

This just in - Biden is hugging a lot of people lately - WITH NO COMPLAINTS!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-bidens-touching-campaign-still-hands-on-but-no-complaints/2020/02/01/638381ac-41ea-11ea-b5fc-eefa848cde99_story.html

Whatever dude.  Clearly it is an issue that doesn't matter to you and you are incapable of empathizing with those for whom it presents a real problem. 

I can tell you that my feelings are sincere on this but, if you don't believe me, given the medium, I doubt there is anything I can say to convince you.

There is no way I am ever voting for Biden.

(ETA: If you don't want me referring to him as Great Uncle Grabby, ban me, because I am not going to stop doing that either.  There's been a lot of that going around for progressives here lately).

jamie said:

So - if I start saying that Warren makes me sick every other comment - that would be a smart tactic?  

Its not a "tactic" its the truth.

Klinker said:

Whatever dude.  Clearly it is an issue that doesn't matter to you and you are incapable of empathizing with those for whom it presents a real problem. 

I can tell you that my feelings are sincere on this but, if you don't believe me, given the medium, I doubt there is anything I can say to convince you.

There is no way I am ever voting for Biden.

(ETA: If you don't want me referring to him as Great Uncle Grabby, ban me, because I am not going to stop doing that either.  There's been a lot of that going around for progressives here lately).

 Please post the latest grabbing complaint - how many complaints have been alleged that occurred since the campaign started?   Does every campaign thread have to devolve into trashing Biden for you?  This is the Iowa prediction thread.

Which grabbing victim would you consider was the worst incident?

i gave a several people a 1 day timeout - no permanent bans.  For someone who has the most flagged comments of anyone else - you should have been in that group also.

I spend too much time here anyway.  You'd be doing me a favor.

At the time - I felt like I was doing them a favor also. 

Well I had no idea how this caucus was going to turn out, but now that the results are pretty solid, I'm disappointed. If the first and second spot were going to be a split between a progressive  and a centrist , I would have liked it to include at least one of the candidates I support. Oh well. This is getting to be like rooting for the Rangers back in the day.

I think you mean a split between a guy who has managed to pass three laws in three decades, two of which had to do with renaming post offices, and a young veteran who has turned his hometown from a dying city into a blueprint for the future and doesn't alienate independents, some Democrats, and future former Republicans.

a few more votes in:

https://elections.ap.org/dailykos/results/2020-02-03/state/IA/race/P/raceid/17278

Pete still ahead.

They must have updated again because now Sanders has a slight lead. Still a fair amount of precincts still to come in.

It looks like Sanders, Buttegieg and Warren are definitely above the 15% mark. Biden and Klobuchar are close so a lot depends on the remaining returns.

I just tried to read how they award actual delegates based on these results. It turns out you can't understand it without coffee (and maybe not even with coffee).

Okay the Daily Kos website and the CNN website disagree a little. CNN shows Buttigieg still with the lead, and Biden above 15%.

When will it really end?  I mean, with all the conspiracy theories now.

Well you could just look at it as another indicator of where things are going but it's a single point on the graph. Warren's 3rd place showing could be a positive sign or negative, depending on her trajectory. Buttigieg could be the real deal, or he could have one burst of prominence then fade back into the pack. He poured a lot of resources into Iowa, so he'll have to be able to sustain that kind of effort in later primaries and larger states such as California and New Jersey.

If you're a Biden supporter you might just look at this as a minor blip. It's a small state and as someone pointed out he's got better support in some other key areas. I think he'll keep pulling in donors and be able to keep competing for a while. He's in it through Super Tuesday.

I think Klobuchar would have liked to do better. She's in double digits but doesn't seem to be hitting the threshold for delegates. She's also got to keep pulling in contributions to make it to some of the bigger primaries. 

I get that Iowa doesn't represent the whole country but like it or not they're the first stop to the actual nomination. At the end of the day there will be delegates awarded to some of the candidates, so we're playing for actual marbles now. It's like a baseball season... the wins in April count as much as the wins in September when the final standings are posted. Maybe in four months you look back and these results have a greater significance, like if Biden misses the nomination by some small sliver of delegates he could have made up in Iowa.

Funny that in the Republican method, the way things stand someone would walk away with all the states delegates after garnering about a quarter of the votes.