COVID-19
I'm curious to hear about how, if at all, people here will curtail their activities should this become widespread. I'm wondering what the reasonable middle ground is between complacency and hysteria.
I've been looking at this year's flu stats. As of mid February, per the CDC there were about 29 million cases. I'm on record as being against flu/Covid comparsions, medically. But there's no denying that the flu is a mass phenomenon and an unpleasant experience. But every year, the public reaction is a big shrug. Everybody who commutes continues to get on the train during flu season, even with all of the coughing and sneezing that kicks in when the flu (and cold) season kicks in.
I think for most people, “normal” precautions, ie handwashing are fine. I don’t think the stock market is saying this i going to be unmanageable, rather, that it is likely to cause—on the margin—a reduction in economic activity.
Yes, it's a new disease with a lot of unknowns. People and new outlets are reporting as fact things that are uncertain and tentative. Still, I don't think it will be as bad here as people now think. No U.S. patient has died. I also keep coming back to the dramatically lower death rate in China outside of Hubei province - way less than 1% (again, if believable). The negative variables in China - overwhelmed hospitals that were weak to begin with, massive amount of smoking by men, and terrible air pollution - suggest we will do better.
I'm concerned about the economic impact of panic driven behavior. I'm concerned that restaurants will be devastated. Storefront retail, already under pressure, could get slammed too.
BG9 said:
Did someone tell the markets that the flu is worse? What is the widespread COVID mortality, such as in Wuhan, vs previous widespread flu outbreaks?
Masks won't help much? I'm not sure but they do help. I've heard they won't help much from other esteemed medical professionals. Professionals belonging to organizations that have caused a cumulative backorder of 100's of million masks. Remind me why every medical professional treating COVID we see wearing a mask. Putting up with discomfort of wearing masks so often and so long that there are now complaints of pressure ulcers. Will we see this doctor treating in a COVID ward without a mask?
Would you be willing to visit an infectious ward without a mask?
Fair questions.
The author makes the point that most surgical masks aren't very helpful due to the small size of the virus particles, and they get less effective the longer you're wearing them. They offer some protection, but need to be changed frequently and should be changed from one patient to the next.
It's a reasonable precaution to take if you're treating a patient with a suspected viral respiratory infection. Not so much for wearing on a 1 hour train ride where you're more likely to pick something up on your hands from a surface.
Why did you boldface "esteemed". Is the author of the CNN article lacking in credibility in your opinion?
mrincredible said:
Fair questions.
The author makes the point that most surgical masks aren't very helpful due to the small size of the virus particles, and they get less effective the longer you're wearing them. They offer some protection, but need to be changed frequently and should be changed from one patient to the next.
It's a reasonable precaution to take if you're treating a patient with a suspected viral respiratory infection. Not so much for wearing on a 1 hour train ride where you're more likely to pick something up on your hands from a surface.
Why did you boldface "esteemed". Is the author of the CNN article lacking in credibility in your opinion?
The problem with the train ride is we don't know who sitting next to you is infected.
Masks help in keeping your hands away from touching your mucous membranes and reducing the airborne amount ingested. Wearing glasses is also desirable.
I don't know if they are esteemed or not. I do know to apply a grain of salt to experts propounding on mass media who given mass a platform come across more knowledgeable or esteemed than others.
BG9 said:
Masks help in keeping your hands away from touching your mucous membranes and reducing the airborne amount ingested. Wearing glasses is also desirable.
Glasses is a good tip. I have a hard time not touching my eyes when I am not wearing them.
I am a commercial property manager in New York City. Had a team wide call on preliminary ramp up in case Cov19 starts to spread around here. Broad recognition that masks have limited value for this one. BUT, as I added to the call, there are still some benefits--as noted above, they keep you from touching your mucous membranes a lot; the virus still depends on saliva and boogers for transmission so if YOU are sick a mask may help keep you from spreading it; and since flu is still the main contagion in our region masks do help against the larger flu virus,
Notwithstanding, masks are almost impossible to find in large quantities right now. My company is one of the largest in the world, and our leadership has been unable to even get a return call from 3M and other mask manufacturers. My guess is that the Feds have implemented a quiet little backdoor regulation requiring strategic medical supplies to be stockpiled for Fed distribution at a later date--to medical centers and first responders, mainly, although I bet Trump and Pence have a roomful in the White House.
yahooyahoo said:
drummerboy said:
Meanwhile, the left hand of government doesn't know about the right hand.
What the f#ck does Larry Kudlow know about public health and pandemics? Idiot.
Pence just named Larry Kudlow to the coronavirus task force. But just two days ago Kudlow said the virus was pretty well "contained." Also Kudlow, who is Trump's chief financial adviser, said in 2007 he saw no recession in sight. pic.twitter.com/rstKUK3cDO
cramer said:
NIH's Dr. Anthony Fauci is being interviewed on CNBC. He reiterated that it was almost certain that there would be COVID-19 cases in the US because of the fact that it has now spread beyond China.
Fauci is really good. He's very upfront and knowledgeable.
Dr. Fauci was told today not to make any public statements without having them cleared with Pence.
Yesterday, at Trump's press conference, Dr. Fauci said that a vaccine would not be ready for at least a year, if trials that are happening now succeed. Trump had previously said "in speaking to doctors we feel this is something we can develop fairly quickly."
China is doing tests in Hubei and results will be in in 3-4 weeks on the effectiveness of several trials, one an anti-HIV type drug from Gilead (GILD) and the other an anti-malarial drug (there are probably others). This could be what Trump was referring to, as both drugs are already FDA-approved and could be rolled out immediately if the trials go well.
We may not be prepared? Who would have thought it?
The White House official charged with leading the U.S. response to deadly pandemics left nearly two years ago as his global health security team was disbanded. Federal funding for preventing and mitigating the spread of infectious disease has been repeatedly threatened since President Trump’s election.
Despite the mounting threat of a coronavirus outbreak in the United States, Trump said he has no regrets about those actions and that expertise and resources can be quickly ramped up to meet the current needs.
Former federal officials and public-health experts argue that an effective response to a epidemiological crisis demands sustained planning and investment. While the administration’s response to coronavirus has been criticized in recent weeks as slow and disjointed, people in and outside the White House have warned for years that the nation is ill prepared for a dangerous pandemic.
"You build a fire department ahead of time. You don’t wait for a fire," said Tom Inglesby, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “There is an underappreciation for the amount of time and resources required to build a prepared system."
I guess they'll have to dustoff the Obama era epidemiological plans.
Trump has no regrets. After all, very stable genius.
ps - hey mtierney, you think this is fake news? Still proud of your boy Trump?
The Pope may have it. Hope he's well soon.
Finally found an article about the dramatic disparity in death rates between Hubei and other parts of China, suggesting that it's due to Wuhan/Hubei's health resources being overwhelmed. 20)30068-1/fulltext" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109
20)30068-1/fulltext
The disparity is somewhat reassuring and should be emphasized for perspective yet the 2% death rate gets repeated like it's the gospel.
Primary blame for COVID-19 outbreak seems to be China's authoritarian state which disciplined initial COVID-19 whistleblower and are now silencing/arresting other whistle-blowers.
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Link: https://www.businessinsider.com/china-coronavirus-whistleblowers-speak-out-vanish-2020-2
Brief excerpt from above link:
At least 5 people in China have disappeared, gotten arrested, or been silenced after speaking out about the coronavirus — here's what we know about them
Aylin Woodward Feb 20, 2020, 11:06 AM
Chinese law professor Xu Zhangrun recently posted a scathing review of the way president Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party have handled the coronavirus outbreak.
"They all blithely stood by as the crucial window of opportunity to deal with the outbreak of the infection snapped shut in their faces," he wrote, suggesting that government censorship of information about the coronavirus hampered China's ability to control its spread.
Xu, who teaches at Beijing's Tsinghua University, added: "The cause of all of this lies with The Axlerod [that is, Xi Jinping] and the cabal that surrounds him."
The essay, published online February 10, was immediately taken down. Xu was placed under house arrest, cut off from the internet, and scrubbed from all social media sites, The Guardian reported.
His critique came three days after Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang died of the coronavirus. Li had sent a message to a group of medical school alumni, warning them about a mysterious new illness. But local police reprimanded and silenced him.
In addition to Li and Xu, at least three citizen journalists have disappeared or were arrested after sharing information about the outbreak on social media.
Here's what we know about all five of them.
bub said:
One can only hope:
Will the Arab countries boycotting Israel refuse the vaccine? The irony.
RealityForAll said:
Primary blame for COVID-19 outbreak seems to be China's authoritarian state which disciplined initial COVID-19 whistleblower and are now silencing/arresting other whistle-blowers.
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The censoring of Dr. Fauci is just as bad. He was the one person who could be trusted to tell it as it is.
What am I missing? It seems like the COVID19 virus transmits quickly and before visible symptoms occur, which is scary. Yet it also seems like a majority who are infected have mild or no symptoms. If this is true, then the mortality rate is far, far lower than the 2% or so being tossed around. It could be in the range of influenza. So all the panic about COVID19--is it just panic? Are we closing down economies and shuttering schools over something more like the flu?
There is so much we don't know yet about this new virus, but this much seems clear, right>
mfpark said:
What am I missing? It seems like the COVID19 virus transmits quickly and before visible symptoms occur, which is scary. Yet it also seems like a majority who are infected have mild or no symptoms. If this is true, then the mortality rate is far, far lower than the 2% or so being tossed around. It could be in the range of influenza. So all the panic about COVID19--is it just panic? Are we closing down economies and shuttering schools over something more like the flu?
There is so much we don't know yet about this new virus, but this much seems clear, right>
If you believe Trump - then yes - this is no different from the flu and we're over doing our response to it.
If you listen to the experts - we are trying to fully gather the facts before we brush it off as something no different then the flu.
Meanwhile, the stupidity continues:
OXON HILL, Md. — Mick Mulvaney, the acting White House chief of staff, on Friday blamed the media for exaggerating the seriousness of coronavirus because “they think this will bring down the president, that’s what this is all about.”
Speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference, an annual gathering of conservative activists, Mr. Mulvaney played down concerns about the virus that is spreading around the globe and panicking investors.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/28/us/politics/cpac-coronavirus.html
The unknown variable is the percentage of cases that are severe enough to require hospitalization. If it close to 20%, that's a lot and many times the hospitalization rate for flu. We're not getting info about the severity of the cases in the U.S., and while the Chinese are providing the much lower death rate for cases outside of Hubei, I'm not seeing any corresponding info about the severity rate outside of Hubei.
cramer said:
RealityForAll said:
Primary blame for COVID-19 outbreak seems to be China's authoritarian state which disciplined initial COVID-19 whistleblower and are now silencing/arresting other whistle-blowers.
============================================================
The censoring of Dr. Fauci is just as bad. He was the one person who could be trusted to tell it as it is.
The Trump Administration is following the China script.
In a narrative prepared for Congress, the whistle-blower painted a grim portrait of staff members who found themselves suddenly thrust into a federal effort to confront the coronavirus in the United States. The whistle-blower said their own health concerns were dismissed by senior administration officials as detrimental to staff “morale.” They were “admonished,” the complainant said, and “accused of not being team players,” and had their “mental health and emotional stability questioned."
After a phone call with health agency leaders to raise their fears about exposure to the virus, the staff members described a “whitewashing” of the situation, characterizing the response as “corrupt” and a “cover-up,” according to the narrative, and telling the whistle-blower that senior officials had treated them as a “nuisance” and did not want to hear their worries about health and safety.
bub said:
The unknown variable is the percentage of cases that are severe enough to require hospitalization. If it close to 20%, that's a lot and many times the hospitalization rate for flu. We're not getting info about the severity of the cases in the U.S., and while the Chinese are providing the much lower death rate for cases outside of Hubei, I'm not seeing any corresponding info about the severity rate outside of Hubei.
Mortality depends on the province/city in China. In Beijing confirmed case mortality is 1.2%. In Heilongjian its 3%. Italy - 3%.
FilmCarp said:
mrincredible said:
Trump Jr tweeted out that the outbreak illustrates the importance of border security.
I was hoping Trump would have been stuck in India.
Trump Jr clearly has no idea what he's talking about. Coronavirus is not traveling from China to the U.S. over a wall.
jamie said:
mfpark said:
What am I missing? It seems like the COVID19 virus transmits quickly and before visible symptoms occur, which is scary. Yet it also seems like a majority who are infected have mild or no symptoms. If this is true, then the mortality rate is far, far lower than the 2% or so being tossed around. It could be in the range of influenza. So all the panic about COVID19--is it just panic? Are we closing down economies and shuttering schools over something more like the flu?
There is so much we don't know yet about this new virus, but this much seems clear, right>If you believe Trump - then yes - this is no different from the flu and we're over doing our response to it.
If you listen to the experts - we are trying to fully gather the facts before we brush it off as something no different then the flu.
The mortality rate for the flu is much lower than COVID-19. However, the annual worldwide scope of the flu dwarfs the Coronavirus.
meanwhile, the ultimate crisis in Italy
#THEPASTASHELVESAREEMPTY https://t.co/A4ZfkbA6DX
jamie said:
If you believe Trump - then yes - this is no different from the flu and we're over doing our response to it.
If you listen to the experts - we are trying to fully gather the facts before we brush it off as something no different then the flu.
That is a simplistic and facile answer to a serious question, Jamie. This is not about Trump. It is about logic.
Many reports I read, from serious scientists, indicate that COVID19 is much less virulent than some other coronaviruses, such as the Avian Flu. However, it seems to be far more contagious. There is a very reasonable probability that many people have been infected but do not develop acute symptoms and so are not even being counted. Testing is so spotty anywhere that it is very hard to know if someone had a regular old cold virus, the flu, or COVID19. The only folks we seem to know for sure are the ones who came down with acute symptoms and were therefore tested.
If this is true, and it seems likely to be true from what we are seeing to date, then the mortality rate is actually relatively low for COVID19. I am not saying we should ignore it and not take serious precautions until we know much more about it, but I am saying that very soon we should know if this is something we need to shut whole economies down for or not. Because shutting down economies will have a significant impact on health and well-being as well.
Further, bringing Trump back into this discussion for a minute, I have a pressing fear that he will use this as a means to further stomp on civil liberties and perhaps even try to delay or void the election in November.
From the New England Journal of Medicine:
"The data so far suggest that the virus has a case fatality risk around
1%; this rate would make it many times more severe than typical seasonal
influenza, putting it somewhere between the 1957 influenza pandemic
(0.6%) and the 1918 influenza pandemic (2%)."
1% is a lot better than the numbers being thrown around based on China's experience or the recent outbursts in Italy and, worse, Iran, but it's not great either.
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