COVID-19
Three Biogen employees who attended a Biogen meeting in Boston last week have tested positive for corona virus. Biogen is based in Cambridge.
Dow futures down 700+.
U.S. 10-year note 0.73% - all-time record low yield. Traders (and algos) focusing on 10-year. Lower yields = more fear of recession. When yield goes down, market goes dow; when yield goes up, market goes up.
"Biz leaders continue to be much more conservative and cautious than US govt. yes they have liabilities but still, why such different messages?"Quote Tweet
Marc Benioff@Benioff · 17hSalesforce offices in Washington State closed for the month of March. When do schools also close? We are considering when we close our California offices & when do the CA schools close? Salesforce Japan, Korea, & Italy offices & schools already closed. https://salesforce.com/blog/2020/03/doing-our-part-in-washington-state.html…
A positive report on any of the drugs being tested, especially existing drugs like remdesivir, would provide a big psychological boost.
Not sure this is possible to prevent but it doesn't help, on the psychological front, that every newly confirmed case gets the breathless melodramatic "breaking news!" treatment. We know the disease spreads and that with increased testing, we are going to see more reports.
For now - tentative, I know - the U.S. numbers are still quite small and expanding slowly.
bub - The biggest problem in the US right now is that there aren't enough test kits and as a result the virus is spreading more than it would if there was more testing. The US is woefully behind other countries in this regard.
eta - I'm trying to find the reference but yesterday, Sen. Ron Johnson said that the test kits would be available for mass use in two weeks - TWO WEEKS!
I'm sure we could use more test kits but the number of confirmed cases, especially per capita, strikes me (no expert of course) as surprisingly low (so far).
This disease erupted as long as 4 months ago, with the first month maybe two being kept secret by the Chinese, and this country is truly an international crossroads with a huge volume of Chinese travelers. Yet the number of U.S. confirmed cases is still in the hundreds, no?
bub - I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm focused more on the market. The market doesn't like uncertainty and right now the market is trying to determine what the effect will be on earnings for companies, and if there will be a recession (I don't think there will be a recession but there will definitely be an effect on earnings, as a lot of companies have already said.)
"Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Dr. Anthony Fauci tells TODAY that Vice President Pence was correct in saying there are not currently enough coronavirus test kits to meet demand, “but hopefully in future we will.” He maintains “the overall risk in the country of getting infected is low” but “it’s something you take very seriously.” He says that Seattle officials were right to adopt a “social distancing” strategy, but “we’re not there yet as a nation.”
It's possible it's going underdetected. Mild cases are going to be more frequent. A lot of those people might just brush it off as a seasonal cough and fever. They won't go to a doctor because of the expense or the inability to take time off work.
I would bet a lot of people in this country won't be tested because of the lack of widespread paid sick time. "Go to the doctor and stay home when you're sick" is great advice but can be financially strenuous for a lot of people.
mrincredible said:
It's possible it's going underdetected. Mild cases are going to be more frequent. A lot of those people might just brush it off as a seasonal cough and fever. They won't go to a doctor because of the expense or the inability to take time off work.
I would bet a lot of people in this country won't be tested because of the lack of widespread paid sick time. "Go to the doctor and stay home when you're sick" is great advice but can be financially strenuous for a lot of people.
"A Tennessee man who has been diagnosed with that state's first case of coronavirus flew into Boston Logan International Airport on a round-trip flight from Nashville International Airport, health officials said.
The patient is a 44-year-old male from Williamson County, the Tennessee Department of Health announced Thursday. He has what is described as a "mild illness" and is currently isolated at home. His test results have been submitted to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Health officials said the patient traveled on a nonstop, round-trip flight between Boston and the Nashville International Airport. They said he was asymptomatic while traveling."
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/man-diagnosed-with-coronavirus-flew-into-logan-airport/2086354/
This person attended the Biogen employee meeting which the three Biogen employees who were tested positive for coronavirus attended.
"Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker said he believes a Tennessee man who flew into Logan International Airport before testing positive is one of the people who went to the Biogen meeting."
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cramer said:
bub - I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm focused more on the market. The market doesn't like uncertainty and right now the market is trying to determine what the effect will be on earnings for companies, and if there will be a recession (I don't think there will be a recession but there will definitely be an effect on earnings, as a lot of companies have already said.)
Agree. The economy is my first concern. On the medical side, this is not the pandemic of science fiction movies even if it gets relatively "bad."
It also must be true that many case are going undetected, which may be a good thing. It may confirm that a huge percentage of the cases are completely asymptomatic or so mild that the effected people do not even think of calling the doctor.
cramer said:
"A Tennessee man who has been diagnosed with that state's first case of coronavirus flew into Boston Logan International Airport on a round-trip flight from Nashville International Airport, health officials said.
The patient is a 44-year-old male from Williamson County, the Tennessee Department of Health announced Thursday. He has what is described as a "mild illness" and is currently isolated at home. His test results have been submitted to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Health officials said the patient traveled on a nonstop, round-trip flight between Boston and the Nashville International Airport. They said he was asymptomatic while traveling."
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/man-diagnosed-with-coronavirus-flew-into-logan-airport/2086354/
This person attended the Biogen employee meeting which the three Biogen employees who were tested positive for coronavirus attended.
"Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker said he believes a Tennessee man who flew into Logan International Airport before testing positive is one of the people who went to the Biogen meeting."
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This is another problem. We are told "stay home when you're sick" but there's an underlying current of "man up and work through it" in corporate America. Especially with stuff like big conferences.
How many people here on MOL have gone to work when sick, even though you're entitled to sick time?
(in the category of better late than never??)Coincidentally I was on Labcorp’s website this morning:
On March 5, 2020, LabCorp announced that its LabCorp 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), NAA test will be available today, beginning at 6 p.m. ET, for ordering by physicians or other authorized healthcare providers anywhere in the U.S
berkeley said:
(in the category of better late than never??)Coincidentally I was on Labcorp’s website this morning:
On March 5, 2020, LabCorp announced that its LabCorp 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), NAA test will be available today, beginning at 6 p.m. ET, for ordering by physicians or other authorized healthcare providers anywhere in the U.S
"Two of the nation’s largest clinical testing providers are launching their own assays for the novel coronavirus—moving forward this week after the FDA gave high-tech labs the green light to operate tests before receiving any agency review or authorization.
LabCorp began making its internally developed PCR test available March 5, for use with respiratory samples such as saliva, washes, and nasal or oral swabs."
bub said:
I'm sure we could use more test kits but the number of confirmed cases, especially per capita, strikes me (no expert of course) as surprisingly low (so far).
This disease erupted as long as 4 months ago, with the first month maybe two being kept secret by the Chinese, and this country is truly an international crossroads with a huge volume of Chinese travelers. Yet the number of U.S. confirmed cases is still in the hundreds, no?
I admire your optimism but I think it might be tempered by the near certainty that almost everything we are hearing from the federal government is either a lie or close to it. In a situation like this, the kakocracy is probably a bigger threat than the virus itself.
As an only slight aside;
Assuming we do not all succumb to the zombie apocalypse, -This is not the world's first pandemic (Spanish flu, Black Plague, smallpox etc). History is rife with examples that have sometimes taken out huge swaths of population. However now in this century even with the relatively small percentage of deaths of the infected, it does seem to be revealing worthy lessons regarding the incredible rapidity of connectivity and degree of interdependence that the world has come to both rely on and taken for granted. I think it gives lie to the illusionary outmoded ideas of rugged individualism, frontier living, closed borders, off the grid etc etc.
When production, transportation, delivery and inevitably power and communication systems need come to a halt or are imperiled because people won't come to work or gather, -what lessons will populations take from it?
The above doomsday scenario I suggest above is hopefully overblown (this time) and I'll grant that the global speed with which it can be discussed may help slow it's pace while simultaneously creating a panicky overreaction.
In other words, -"Hey, whadda ya goin' to do?" Usually when my future is somewhat in doubt I will go get a haircut but I don't have much left so I'll grab a good book I suppose.
Jenny Durkan, Seattle Mayor, on CNBC - Our lack of testing has impaired our public health response.
steel said:
When production, transportation, delivery and inevitably power and communication systems need come to a halt or are imperiled because people won't come to work or gather, -what lessons will populations take from it?
I think they may wish they had put more stock in rugged individualism, preparedness and the ability to live, at least for a short time, off the grid.
The realization that you are facing a two week quarantine with a one week supply of toilet paper has a way of focussing the mind.
Klinker said:
I think they may wish they had put more stock in rugged individualism, preparedness and the ability to live, at least for a short time, off the grid.
The realization that you are facing a two week quarantine with a one week supply of toilet paper has a way of focussing the mind.
Well maybe that also speaks to the need for strong social interaction. If my family was isolated in our house I can think of a dozen people who'd be willing to drop a case of toilet paper on our deck.
bub said:
A positive report on any of the drugs being tested, especially existing drugs like remdesivir, would provide a big psychological boost.
Not sure this is possible to prevent but it doesn't help, on the psychological front, that every newly confirmed case gets the breathless melodramatic "breaking news!" treatment. We know the disease spreads and that with increased testing, we are going to see more reports.
For now - tentative, I know - the U.S. numbers are still quite small and expanding slowly.
The increase rate is not slow. Its exponential. We've just started. Or do you think we have a magic immunity that the rest of the world lacks?
To not worry because "the numbers are quite small and expanding slowly" is like saying in July "don't worry about the flu, its number are quite small."
I'm habituating myself to intensive sanitary practices. Not because I'm scared now, the infection risk is still low. But I want to have that habit if the risk factor goes high.
Klinker said:
The realization that you are facing a two week quarantine with a one week supply of toilet paper has a way of focussing the mind.
Excellent.
Some more unsolicited cheerful thoughts:
I feel that one day our collective human hubris will be revealed to us and all too quickly. We seem clever enough to destroy ourselves but not clever enough to prevent it. While we recount our “ancient” human recorded history of 3,000 years (laughable) it should be noted that this rock that we all stand on, with it’s very narrow range of survivable temperature and thin layer of oxygen supply that we require, cares not a wit if we do.
My lovely wife assures me (as does Neil Tyson-Degrasse) that we are all made from stardust (which I find not-at-all comforting) and that when we each meet our demise, our body-sustaining energy is never diminished but only transferred. That may be, but during dull moments in the beyond will I still be able to watch re-runs of "Law and Order”? -I think not.
Some folks feel that all the above matters not as they shall live on in another eternal lofty state of grace. I wish them well, while I can’t help but think that the meekest microbes will inherit the earth and it will all start all over again, maybe with fewer commercials this time.
BTW: Modern toilet paper as we know it (on rolls and perforated) was not invented until 1880. Curious to think of such persons as Galileo, Mozart and Lincoln doing without (as does much of the world still).
mrincredible said:
Well maybe that also speaks to the need for strong social interaction. If my family was isolated in our house I can think of a dozen people who'd be willing to drop a case of toilet paper on our deck.
But, given that we are talking about New Jersey, they are probably as unprepared as you.
As Californians, we grew up with the certainty that the Big One would hit sooner or later. Folks on the East Coast are firm in their belief that there will never be a rainy day and, if there is one, the government will be there with an umbrella.
steel said:
BTW: Modern toilet paper as we know it (on rolls and perforated) was not invented until 1880. Curious to think of such persons as Galileo, Mozart and Lincoln doing without (as does much of the world still).
Now I'm glad I didn't rake up every last leaf last fall.
The most susceptible are in nursing homes...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html
A WhatsApp message from a friend of a friend here in Hong Kong:
"Just spoke to [******], he is in Ruttonjee [public hospital]. He flew London to HKG arrived on BA27 at 5pm HK time on wednesday. He was shivering on the flight. He did not have a temperature when arrived in HK. He reached home and wife took his temp was 103 fever. He took 2 panadols and went to sleep. Next day went to Canossa [private hospital] to see Dr. At entrance he had fever and they told him go to government as their new procedure is to send anyone with any symptoms of Corona to Government [hospital]. He went to Ruttonjee [wife drove him] and checked temp before entering and had fever. They moved him to a seperate area and fast tracked him to see Dr and do tests. X-ray showed no issues with Lungs and therefore Dr said Should be no corona but lets do blood work. And checked his immune system had gone to a very low level. Conclusion, early state of Corona Virus. His immune system was fighting it and after the virus breaks down the immune system will attack the lungs and respiratory tract. He's on HIV Medication at the moment. Just Pills. Dr said its a very early stage of the virus and therefore not affected the lungs as yet. This is about 4-6 days when he got infected and we got hold of it before it spread to the lungs. Now the airline is contacting everyone in that compartment of business class as the doctors feel ALL HAVE GOT IT. He is laughing on the phone and is on a quick loss weight diet in the hospital."
Hong Kong Hospital Authority's data center (hey, CDC, copy this format!):
CDC is announcing that us older folks should stay home as much as possible.
Great.
Anyone been to a local Costco lately? I called the EH store today to see if it was chaos and they said the morning was kind of bad but by mid afternoon it was ok.
Luckily I got my TP on my last run but I do need a coupla of Costco only items.
And has anyone seen the videos floating around of Trump's visit to the CDC? He said the tests are perfect, just like his transcript of the Ukraine call. Or maybe not quite that perfect.
JFC we're in deep doo-doo.
dave said:
Hong Kong Hospital Authority's data center (hey, CDC, copy this format!):
I read somewhere that the CDC site hadn't been updated in 2-3 days, which was quite unusual.
Yup, here's today's latest news.
Had to go to court in NYC today. I walked down from the West Village. Everyone on the street seemed nonchalant and upbeat. People were in coffee shops and taking food out. I didn't see one particle mask on the way down. I did see some on the way back, walking through Chinatown.
I know it's just anecdotal but the overall vibe was encouraging and calming.