Covid-19 Response - or Over Reaction?

Jaytee said:

 Yes, I’ve seen them in parks. That’s what happens when the covidiots at the White House and Fox News spread their “news” 

 We'll never beat it with this kind of attitude:

The rantings of the radical right is frightening; in the example, grammar & spelling is telling.  I have a close friend, who only listens to Fox (and perhaps Rush), and believes every word as gospel (don't you know that Al Queda has 10 training camps right inside the US?).

Now some real news from a conservative newspaper in DK:

• The British health care system has issued triage guide lines for situations, where seriuosly sick outnumber available treatment capacity.
• In Spain, the vice premier is hospitalized with Covid-19.
• In Italy the number of new cases declined slightly compared to the day before.
• In Denmark there are 2 cases of bureaucrats declining offers of help (South Korea offered to supply test kits, and a Danish commercial company offered both test kits and the use of 14 high speed test machines).  The minister of Health/Senior services is now pursuing both offers (and has opened investigations into why these offers were declined).
• In Denmark the authorities have finally decided broaden testing (previously given only to those who were seriously sick, and in a high risk group).  This change in policy probably has a lot to do with the previous item. 
• Russia has a very high number of tests administered (163,000), but supposedly less than 500 positives (can't read the whole article for lack of subscription to this paper, but it appears that Russian authorities are cooking the numbers).

I think it is a false belief that letting the virus run wild will somehow have less of an economic impact that having people stay at home.  If anybody thinks that watching 2-3% of their neighbors die of the virus when the hospital system overloads won't freak them out and send them into hibernation, I think they are living in fantasy land.

Jaytee said:

sportsnut said:

 This is what I fear.  My ex, who still lives in Maplewood with my kids, was telling me about a party of some sort yesterday in her neighborhood.  My two boys who have been trying to go for walks were telling me that there were quite a few gatherings of more than 10 people that they encountered on their walk around the same neighborhood.  WTF people?

It's a manifestation of the "rules don't apply to me" thinking that we encounter complaining about drivers in town.

 Yes, I’ve seen them in parks. That’s what happens when the covidiots at the White House and Fox News spread their “news” 

 I've had the opposite experience. Walking through Memorial Park people were studiously staying at least 6 feet from anyone they encountered to the point of leaving the paths when someone else was approaching and walking on the grass around them and away from them.

We live in the richest nation on the planet, but individual volunteers are sewing masks for healthcare professionals.

Think about that before you vote in November.

You are preaching to the choir. 

Too many voters never think.

tjohn said:

I think it is a false belief that letting the virus run wild will somehow have less of an economic impact that having people stay at home.  If anybody thinks that watching 2-3% of their neighbors die of the virus when the hospital system overloads won't freak them out and send them into hibernation, I think they are living in fantasy land.

 On TV this morning, Cuomo was talking about getting people back to work.  

joan_crystal said:

 On TV this morning, Cuomo was talking about getting people back to work.  

 

 When the time is right - not now.

Soon, but not until plans are in place.

tjohn said:

I think it is a false belief that letting the virus run wild will somehow have less of an economic impact that having people stay at home.  If anybody thinks that watching 2-3% of their neighbors die of the virus when the hospital system overloads won't freak them out and send them into hibernation, I think they are living in fantasy land.

 My mother's assisted living facility had their first positive case this and my sister on the West Coast is self isolating with fever, cough, headache and fatigue so this has definitely left the hypothetical for me.  We are praying for both of them, along with my 80 year old father, niece and nephew, all of whom live with my sister.

For me, the question isn't whether we are over reacting it is why the powers that be didn't lock things down before they got this bad.

Klinker,

Sad to hear of your family's problems. Hope things go well.

Klinker said:

 My mother's assisted living facility had their first positive case this and my sister on the West Coast is self isolating with fever, cough, headache and fatigue so this has definitely left the hypothetical for me.  We are praying for both of them, along with my 80 year old father, niece and nephew, all of whom live with my sister.

For me, the question isn't whether we are over reacting it is why the powers that be didn't lock things down before they got this bad.

I'm sorry to hear this. I empathize a lot. My mother had assisted living for five years, which was very stressful. This must be super stressful for you and your family.

This too will pass. Hopefully, it will turn out well. Be well. Try to destress.

ps - no, we are not over reacting.

Just saw on the news, that our glorious 'Wartime Commander in Chief' is now considering lifting restrictions in order to save the economy.

PS.  Klinker, I pray for the best for your relatives.

Klinker, so sorry to hear about your family members.  Hoping for good outcomes for them.

We are screwed. 

In Westport, CT, a soiree became a super spreader. People had the symptons but were not tested, so they continued living while not being isolated. The town was sanguine, saying there were no cases they were aware of and the risk is low. 

However, one person from the party traveled to South Africa, where he had the symptons and was quickly tested. He got the results back in a day. The news got back to Westport with officials then ramping up their pandemic plan. They tested 38 party goers, finding half were infected.

They now have 85 active cases, they know of.

It's sad that the heads up on Westport's epidemic had to come from South Africa because we were incapable.

About 50 people gathered this month for a party in the upscale suburb of Westport, then scattered across the region and the world, taking the coronavirus with themThe party guests attended other gatherings.

They went to work at jobs throughout the New York metropolitan area. Their children went to school and day care, soccer games and after-school sports.

On the morning of March 8, three days after the party, Julie Endich, one of the guests, woke up in Westport with a fever that spiked to 104 degrees and “pain, tightness and heaviness like someone was standing on my chest,” she later wrote on Facebook. She knew her symptoms suggested Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, but it would be four days before she could get test results confirming that she had it.

At noon that day, town and county health officials convened a coronavirus forum at the Westport Library. About 60 people attended, and many others watched on Facebook. When asked whether people, especially Westport’s many older residents, should follow federal government guidance and avoid large gatherings, officials were sanguine.

“It is not out in our community that we’re aware of yet,” said Mark A.R. Cooper, the director of the Westport Weston Health District. “Give it some thought, but again, your risk is low.”

A moderator next passed the microphone to an older man.

“How many test kits do we have in Westport now?” he asked.

“Zero,” Mr. Cooper replied. “None. They’re not available.”

Three days later, on March 11, Mr. Cooper got a phone call: A South African businessman who had stopped in Westport for a party had fallen ill on the plane home to Johannesburg.

“I thought it was good old man flu,” the businessman told The Sunday Times in South Africa, speaking anonymously in a March 15 article. Unlike in the United States, where tests remain in short supply and results come slowly, the man was tested and received word in a day. He was positive.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/us/coronavirus-westport-connecticut-party-zero.html

What is sad is that (1) persons who were sick went out and failed to practice social distancing; and (2) that many people gathered at a party after being warned to keep their distance from others.  If the party-goers had taken the necessary precautions, there might have been fewer cases in Westport.  To your other point, most countries still keeping their borders open are testing at points of entry.  US has been doing this too.  I agree that we need to do more testing.  NY is receiving so much support from the Federal Government because they have placed such an emphasis on testing, not necessarily because they have more actual cases there than anywhere else,

joan_crystal said:

What is sad is that (1) persons who were sick went out and failed to practice social distancing; and (2) that many people gathered at a party after being warned to keep their distance from others.  If the party-goers had taken the necessary precautions, there might have been fewer cases in Westport.  To your other point, most countries still keeping their borders open are testing at points of entry.  US has been doing this too.  I agree that we need to do more testing.  NY is receiving so much support from the Federal Government because they have placed such an emphasis on testing, not necessarily because they have more actual cases there than anywhere else,

 But NY does have the most cases in the US. Over 20,000. The next closest state is NJ which has over 2800.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/health/us-coronavirus-cases-state-by-state/index.html

tjohn said:

I think it is a false belief that letting the virus run wild will somehow have less of an economic impact that having people stay at home.  If anybody thinks that watching 2-3% of their neighbors die of the virus when the hospital system overloads won't freak them out and send them into hibernation, I think they are living in fantasy land.

 Not only this, but an overwhelmed medical system will mean people with non-covid 19 treatable medical issues will begin to die in large numbers because there will be no room at the hospitals. There is no laissez faire way out of a huge economic hit from all this. 

wedjet said:

joan_crystal said:

What is sad is that (1) persons who were sick went out and failed to practice social distancing; and (2) that many people gathered at a party after being warned to keep their distance from others.  If the party-goers had taken the necessary precautions, there might have been fewer cases in Westport.  To your other point, most countries still keeping their borders open are testing at points of entry.  US has been doing this too.  I agree that we need to do more testing.  NY is receiving so much support from the Federal Government because they have placed such an emphasis on testing, not necessarily because they have more actual cases there than anywhere else,

 But NY does have the most cases in the US. Over 20,000. The next closest state is NJ which has over 2800.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/health/us-coronavirus-cases-state-by-state/index.html

NY has the most test results and the most test confirmed cases. They have no clue how many people in NY or other states (including NJ) actually have Covid-19 because there are so many barriers to getting a test. 

Today is the second day that I have tried and failed to get a test a Bergen Community College. I don't know how early we have to be there to get in line, but 5:50 is too late. It's actually kind of a challenge going there and sitting for hours in line if you are ill, particularly if you have any of the gastric symptoms. 

The system is enraging, also not good for those with hypertension.

joan_crystal said:

What is sad is that (1) persons who were sick went out and failed to practice social distancing; and (2) that many people gathered at a party after being warned to keep their distance from others.  If the party-goers had taken the necessary precautions, there might have been fewer cases in Westport.  To your other point, most countries still keeping their borders open are testing at points of entry.  US has been doing this too.  I agree that we need to do more testing.  NY is receiving so much support from the Federal Government because they have placed such an emphasis on testing, not necessarily because they have more actual cases there than anywhere else,

Joan, if you read the article, it makes clear that no one was sick at the party. The spreader became symptomatic on his flight home to South Africa.  So no blame shaming is appropriate.

The party in the article was March 5th-very few people were self-isolating then, and we were still being told a very different story about ease of transmission, even by the reputable media. 

I’ve gone back and checked my family calendar against the daily disease reports.  We are a family that follows news carefully, and contains a biosciences PhD (me) and a pension actuary (spouse), so we understand the math and the science. Our last public event was the 9th, and our kids went to school (and theater practice) until the 13th.  At that point, we’d have pulled them if things weren’t cancelled.

March 5th was a different world. And now we are paying for that. 

wedjet said:

 But NY does have the most cases in the US. Over 20,000. The next closest state is NJ which has over 2800.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/health/us-coronavirus-cases-state-by-state/index.html

 New York has the most confirmed cases.  Hospitals elsewhere are also being overwhelmed.  My point is that the statistics we are seeing are comparing apples with oranges.  We need testing to be more readily available nationwide for us to know the true incidence of spread in each state.  Undiagnosed infected persons are more apt to spread the disease than those for whom there is a diagnosis.  Testing should be more of a priority.

Today WHO is chiding Denmark for not testing enough, and predicting that lack of aggressive testing will lead to increasing infections for months.

Just heard on the news, that the new Essex County test site has only been allocated 1100 test kits for the first 5 days.

Anyone see a parallel to US fragmented response and difficulties getting tested? 

At this point, can we safely say that the question in the thread title has been answered?

Klinker said:

At this point, can we safely say that the question in the thread title has been answered?

 Y

joan_crystal said:

 New York has the most confirmed cases.  Hospitals elsewhere are also being overwhelmed.  My point is that the statistics we are seeing are comparing apples with oranges.  We need testing to be more readily available nationwide for us to know the true incidence of spread in each state.  Undiagnosed infected persons are more apt to spread the disease than those for whom there is a diagnosis.  Testing should be more of a priority.

 We're being overwhelmed everywhere. Its just not yet recognized as COVID-19 due to lack of tests. What happens is people are going to clinics and hospitals with influenza like illness (ILI) but when tested they are found NOT to have influenza. This is happening a lot more this year than previous years. Its likely they have COVID-19 but they are not identified as such due to lack of testing.

Looks like New Rochelle, an early explosive hot spot, has managed to flatten its curve.  It's encouraging and should provide us incentive not to backslide. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/nyregion/new-rochelle-coronavirus.html

A CDC travel advisory has been issued for NY and NJ.  Flattening the curve around here could take awhile.

I was telling my wife this morning that all this feels like one of those cheesy action movies where someone is walking blithely along a jungle path and then suddenly takes a misstep, falls on their back and slides down a ridiculously long and steep muddy incline.

bub said:

Klinker said:

At this point, can we safely say that the question in the thread title has been answered?

 Y

Agreed.  

At this point I would say that the preparation/response at the Federal level was grossly mis-managed.  In private industry, the BOD would have stepped in and cleaned up house'; unfortunately, that option is not available in this case.

I also want to elaborate on a statement I made earlier (possibly in a different thread):

Having multiple for-profit hospitals/healthcare networks does not allow for a centralized, coordinated response to a pandemic (and appointing political hacks to head agencies such as CDC certainly doesn't help).

The European national systems have their flaws (and there will be revisions once this Pandemic is over), but they do provide a better starting point.

Another question that should be addressed after this is all over. Communities (including MOL) are being asked to make mouth-masks and donate to hospitals, donate gloves, and other protective equipment. And I know a few medical responders, and I know it is true that they have shortages (they will use one pair of gloves for the whole day etc.). So I am all for helping them. But here is my question: our payments for medical procedures, doctors, hospitals, etc. are the highest in the civilized world (not even close). We pay several times more than anyone else in the world for the same procedure. So if that money is not spent on materials and equipment (obviously), and I do not think it is spent on exorbitant salaries for nurses either, then where does all this money flow to? How is it possible we pay more than anyone else on hospitals, but we also have to donate gloves because they can't buy them themselves?

That's partly the 'For Profit' part.  It is also the separate for profit insurance industry, let alone the the ambulance chasing for profit lawyers, who drive up the insurance rates and thus costs.  This in turn forces doctors to order unnecessary tests to protect against potential liability.

In most of Europe, mal-practice suits are virtually unheard of.