DUMP TRUMP (previously 2020 candidates)
DaveSchmidt said:
We’re having a discussion, sharing information and observations. Convincing has nothing to do with it, at least on my end. If that’s what you’re giving up, welcome. I gave it up long ago.
I don't expect to change minds. But I thought maybe someone would decide that the professor's hypotheses are worth considering.
Even though ballots are secret, the list of who votes in every election, and their party registration is public information. The professor knows for a fact whether the same people come out each election and vote differently or whether the different outcome is due to another group of voters turning out. It's not guesswork.
DaveSchmidt said:
We’re having a discussion, sharing information and observations. Convincing has nothing to do with it, at least on my end. If that’s what you’re giving up, welcome. I gave it up long ago.
Many of us, perhaps more so those actually involved in Politics or trained as lawyers, are of the mind that the purpose of engaging in a discussion is to convince someone of something.
ml1 said:
I don't expect to change minds. But I thought maybe someone would decide that the professor's hypotheses are worth considering.
Just in case I've misread, would you mind restating what it is you think are the hypotheses, and what the position is you feel people haven't been convinced of?
Also, as I'm not sure it came across clearly, thanks linking to Bitecofer; I hadn't previously been aware of her.
PVW said:
Just in case I've misread, would you mind restating what it is you think are the hypotheses, and what the position is you feel people haven't been convinced of?
Also, as I'm not sure it came across clearly, thanks linking to Bitecofer; I hadn't previously been aware of her.
the argument I've been making for months has been that winning elections nowadays means turning out as much of the partisan base as possible. Others have been arguing that Democrats need to move to the center to attract moderates.
Bitecofer analyzed the 2018 results and it showed Democrats won on turnout of their base. And the candidates who tended to underperform their potential were Blue Dog type candidates who tried to play it safe.
She also believes a centrist like Biden can win -- but he needs to do something to excite the progressive base.
It's her conclusion that the Democratic moderates have taken the wrong lesson from the midterm. Her analysis suggests they be very partisan and not concern themselves with seeming too extreme..
ml1 said:
the argument I've been making for months has been that winning elections nowadays means turning out as much of the partisan base as possible. Others have been arguing that Democrats need to move to the center to attract moderates.
Thanks for clarifying. So I think we do actually disagree here -- you seem to be conflating ideology and partisanship, and I don't agree that's a supportable conflation. What does "moving to the center" have to do with "turning out the partisan base?"
As I read Bitecofer, a Democrat who positions themselves in the ideological center, but does a good job of drawing contrasts to Trump, is as likely to be successful as a Democrat on the ideological left. What are you seeing that leads you to to equate partisanship with ideology?
PVW said:
Thanks for clarifying. So I think we do actually disagree here -- you seem to be conflating ideology and partisanship, and I don't agree that's a supportable conflation. What does "moving to the center" have to do with "turning out the partisan base?"
As I read Bitecofer, a Democrat who positions themselves in the ideological center, but does a good job of drawing contrasts to Trump, is as likely to be successful as a Democrat on the ideological left. What are you seeing that leads you to to equate partisanship with ideology?
she found that the Democratic turnout was lower for candidates who played down their differences to appear more moderate. That a suggests a chunk of the Democratic base doesn't turn out for Democrats who don't make their case strongly without worrying about seeming "extreme."
The truth of the matter is Democratic turnout, particularly in midterms, is so bad that with the giant surge the Democrats managed to put together, what they were able to do is come close to matching Republican turnout. Which is good, that's a major victory. But in many districts, especially where the candidates were focusing on being moderate, the Democratic turnout still underperformed its potential, and still underperformed turnout among Republicans, according to this analysis that I'll be releasing after Labor Day.
And the independents who turned out where Democrats won were new voters, not independents who switched from voting Republican to Democratic.
It's of course correlational research so it's not absolute proof. But it's pretty strong evidence. And it seems like a pretty sensible conclusion that turning out the base and new voters won't be accomplished by being cautious and moderate but by getting those voters worked up.
I still think a smart candidate can do both; fire up the base to come out, fire up new voters to vote for him/her, and turn some "swing" voters.
I guess that's three things.
Also on the issues of immigration,tariffs,trade, healthcare, regulations and taxes the Dems are actually more "moderate" than Trump. His "solutions" are always extreme.
On immigration, build award, deport everyone, bar almost all immigration.
On tariffs and trade, get rid of treaties, pick fights, abandon all notions of free trade.
On healthcare, strike down "Obamacare" in the Courts and have no plans to replace it.
On regulations, just do away with all of them with no thinking about consequences and no long-range plan.
On taxes, reduce them for the very rich, increase them on a chunk of the middle class by eliminating SALT and leave everyone else where they were before.
nan said:
New entry for the Biden Gaff-o-Meter, this one for a Republican talking point instead of a brain fart.
Biden jumps into damage control after upsetting Latino leaders
Biden echoed a conservative talking point in the last Democratic debate, saying undocumented immigrants need to "get in line."
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/14/joe-biden-latinos-immigration-2020-1461341
The Biden Gaff-o-Meter (08/14/2019 edition)
- Can't remember the name of his own website
- Said the last two major mass shootings were in different locations.
- Keeps calling Teresa May, Margaret Thatcher
- "Poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids"
- "We choose truth over facts!"
- "those kids in Parkland came up to see me when I was vice president."
- undocumented immigrants need to "get in line" and we are right to "cherry-pick" the best
And here's the new one! There would be more, but they are keeping him in the house as much as possible.
‘There’s an awful lot of really good Republicans out there’: Joe Biden at Cape Cod fundraiser
The Biden Gaff-o-Meter (08/18/2019 edition)
- Can't remember the name of his own website
- Said the last two major mass shootings were in different locations.
- Keeps calling Teresa May, Margaret Thatcher
- "Poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids"
- "We choose truth over facts!"
- "those kids in Parkland came up to see me when I was vice president."
- undocumented immigrants need to "get in line" and we are right to "cherry-pick" the best
- "There's an awful lot of really good Republicans out there."
MSNBC is going overboard to defend Biden, using anti-Trump arguments:
How did you manage to have your cerebral cortex replaced by youtube?
drummerboy said:
How did you manage to have your cerebral cortex replaced by youtube?
What's with the personal attacks?
ml1 said:
PVW said:
Thanks for clarifying. So I think we do actually disagree here -- you seem to be conflating ideology and partisanship, and I don't agree that's a supportable conflation. What does "moving to the center" have to do with "turning out the partisan base?"
As I read Bitecofer, a Democrat who positions themselves in the ideological center, but does a good job of drawing contrasts to Trump, is as likely to be successful as a Democrat on the ideological left. What are you seeing that leads you to to equate partisanship with ideology?
she found that the Democratic turnout was lower for candidates who played down their differences to appear more moderate. That a suggests a chunk of the Democratic base doesn't turn out for Democrats who don't make their case strongly without worrying about seeming "extreme."
So where would you put, for instance, Harris or Gillibrand? I don't think they'd qualify as moderate by this definition. I mean, I guess this is an argument against Tim Ryan, but even Biden seems a poor fit for this definition of moderate.
PVW said:
So where would you put, for instance, Harris or Gillibrand? I don't think they'd qualify as moderate by this definition. I mean, I guess this is an argument against Tim Ryan, but even Biden seems a poor fit for this definition of moderate.
Yes. Ryan and Delaney looked ridiculous in the debates. It's been one of my arguments here to people who are saying that Democrats shouldn't move left -- all the leading candidates are moving left, even Biden. With all their polling, none of them are moving center or right. I think some of them aren't moving far enough left. But they are all realizing they need the progressive base. I just hope the progressive base realizes that.
nan said:
drummerboy said:
How did you manage to have your cerebral cortex replaced by youtube?
What's with the personal attacks?
I thought I was being polite.
drummerboy said:
I thought I was being polite.
That's not what trolls do.
jamie said:
when is the latest a candidate could get onto a primary ballot?
I don't know, but who do you have in mind?
jimmurphy said:
I’m surprised Cuomo hasn’t announced.
I am pleasantly surprised. I can't stand that guy.
Can we all agree this is a stupid move? Kamala Harris is skipping the Climate Change Townhall to go to a high dollar fundraiser with special interest donors. Who runs her campaign? Republicans?
“Sen. Elizabeth Warren overtook Sen. Bernie Sanders to claim second place in the Real Clear Politics average of national primary polls, a position she’s had for a little over a week now. It’s the first time she’s claimed that spot, apart from a one-day blip back in July.”
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-whats-driving-elizabeth-warrens-comeback/
Warren is leading on PredictIt, fwiw.
ml1 said:
meh. The tweet is from three and a half years ago.
So was my reply.
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We’re having a discussion, sharing information and observations. Convincing has nothing to do with it, at least on my end. If that’s what you’re giving up, welcome. I gave it up long ago.