Yes, I've revived the BLIZZARD thread. There's new information about this historic snowfall.
Thanks Max. It's a good excuse to get the sleds out from the back of the garage. I also fired up the snowblower to make sure it works. I think there's plenty of ice melt at local stores now too. I grabbed a bag a few weeks ago.
Foot... Of... Snow... ? Oh please God no. But if it does happen, at least it will be the weekend. 
I'm not excited about this for work (big event on Saturday) or for life (out-of-town guests coming Saturday morning). So if we could please reschedule I'd appreciate it. Thanks!
Huh. And here I thought for sure my purchase of a nifty new snow shovel would prevent any and all snow accumulation this winter.
BrickPig said:
Huh. And here I thought for sure my purchase of a nifty new snow shovel would prevent any and all snow accumulation this winter.
You gotta do more than that ... a snowblower at least.
UGH big event in Newark Saturday morning. Gonna stick my fingers in my ears and go "la, la la" to this one....
Driving lesson will be fun. I haven't tried driving in snow drifts yet. If you see me on the road, best to stay clear.
Figures. I have tickets to "La Boheme" Saturday afternoon. There's always a problem when I have tickets to "La Boheme" - once NYCO went on strike, a few times there was bad weather or family illness...I think I should only get tickets to this opera in late spring or early autumn.
"I think I should only get tickets to this opera in late spring or early autumn."
I would only try for late spring--early autumn is hurricane season, you know 
Quote a few of local NJ weather gurus sound pretty excited for his storm.
We are due for one decent one, right?!?
What was the snowfall total this time last year?
We need at least one decent snowfall this winter. I'm sorry the timing is bad for some but it's about as good as we could hope for. Not a school day, not a major commute day.
mrincredible said:
What was the snowfall total this time last year?
We need at least one decent snowfall this winter. I'm sorry the timing is bad for some but it's about as good as we could hope for. Not a school day, not a major commute day.
...which are the exact wrong times!! Snow days are for staying home and playing hooky, not for cancelling fun weekend things
(Says someone who knows I am INCREDIBLY lucky to have a job that does in fact allow me to say home)
TarheelsInNj said:
I'm not excited about this for work (big event on Saturday) or for life (out-of-town guests coming Saturday morning). So if we could please reschedule I'd appreciate it. Thanks!
Yeah, my stepdaughter, who I haven't seen in at least a year is coming in for a visit this weekend. Her twin sister is getting married this spring. We are supposed to do stuff this weekend... Sigh.
It's never a good time, but we can't control it anyway. At least we have Max and other great weather guys to help us know and understand what to expect.
This may be inappropriate but oddly I look forward to pending storms because this thread always makes me laugh. I really only check in to discussions during winter. It always makes me feel good when I am dreading the winter because you are all so funny. Thank you
Things are status quo this evening.
This is the point where I get to say that the storm is becoming very likely, but the question of where it will go is still quite open. As is so often the case with these coastal runners, a difference of 50 miles north or south in the storm's track will make a large difference in the snowfall. With one of the major componants of this system still out in the Pacific, there is significant uncertainty as to the track this storm will take.
Also should note that the 23rd is a full moon. Combined with the potential for high winds in this system, coastal flooding is a serious concern.
1. It is really cold this morning.
2. The models continue to be in general agreement about the potential storm this weekend. The main low pressure componant will come onshore today. This will allow revisions to the model input and we should begin to get more plausible snowfall estimates by tonight.
Max, thanks very much - as soon as I heard about this storm I came here looking for your assessment!
Agree that the models are not solid yet on snowfall, but as you note what is clear is that there will be a lot of offshore wind with a full moon high tide. No matter what we get inland, the shore is going to take a pounding again.
Southern CT forecasters say the models agree this could be a significant weather event. Dammit. I don't want a foot of snow! Oh, well. We will just have to deal. Winter comes with snow; the only questions are how much, how often, and how inconvenient it will be.
rhw said:
http://www.wunderground.com/news/snow-ohio-valley-middle-atlantic-northeast
That's actually not a bad explanation of what's going on. Looks like wunderground is having a positive influence on weather.com
A Nashville friend (they may be in for some snow this week) posted this on Facebook 
So here is where we are tonight.
The models are in general agreement that the storm will happen, but there is still some disagreement about exactly where along the east coast we can expect the heaviest snow and highest winds. As the models incorporate the new data on the Pacific low that came ashore this afternoon over the next couple of runs, things should became much clearer. The models themselves have been quite consistent; it is the difference between the various models that keeps the spread high.
Here is what the NWS is saying about it. My translations in bold:
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SERN CONUS (Southeastern Continental USA) THU AND FRI THEN EMERGE OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE LOW
DEEPENS TO AROUND 985 OFF THE DELMARVA/SRN NJ COAST LATE
SAT...OCCLUDES AND SOMEWHAT STALLS...THEN GETS KICKED OUT TO SEA
BY SUN. STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS SCENARIO. Most models agree that the storm will pass over us and then stall. How long it sits and how far offshore is one of the factors in the uncertain snowfall predictions.
THERE ARE SOME PROBLEMS HOWEVER WITH THE EXACT DETAILS...AND IF YOU
TOOK THE 12Z ECMWF (The European model run from this morning)...PORTIONS OF THE CWA WOULD GET A DUSTING OF SNOW TOTAL OUT OF THE EVENT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A SLOWER AND MORE SLY TRACK...AND WHAT IS CONCERNING FOR SNOW LOVERS IS THAT THIS IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN (one of the outputs of the main American model) ADDING TO MODEL CREDIBILITY. THE GFS (the main American model) CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SPEED AND WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS WELL. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS BRINGS SNOW TO THE AREA IN THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENTAL PHASE OF THE STORM.
ANOTHER CONCERN...IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...WOULD BE OVER ERN
LONG ISLAND AND PERHAPS SERN CT WHERE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
COASTAL FRONT COULD BRING A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ON SAT BEFORE GOING
BACK TO SNOW.
MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE A FUNCTION OF THE EXACT POSITION
OF THE SYSTEM. THE FURTHER N GFS SUGGESTS 60KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ERN
LONG ISLAND. (end of quoted text)
The GFS is showing 12 - 16" of snow, but the Euro only 4 - 6. Recently, the Euro has been the stronger model for these types of storms.
The NWS has not posted any pictures or warnings yet, so I will refrain from sharing the scare maps from the commercial sites. It does no one any good to post a map that has us in the 4 - 16" zone, and anything else would be inaccurate.
Sleep well, stay warm, and tune in tomorrow for an update.
Rentals
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Huge Brand New construction Apartment in 2 family home with 4 bedrooms 3 bathrooms
4 Bd | 3Full Ba
$4,500
NOT HERE! LOOK AT THE LAST POST: https://maplewood.worldwebs.com/forums/comment/id/3235426
The models are indicating a possibility of snow next weekend.
It is still very early in the forecast cycle. The NWS, though, has the potential for snow now at 60% and they are talking about the possibility of a long-lasting and significant storm from Friday through Sunday.
On the weather discussion boards, they are getting very excited about this one.
As of now, the storm is showing the potential to bring high winds and a foot of snow. It also, of course, has the potential to blow out to sea and leave us untouched.
But if you are making travel plans for the weekend -- if you need to get the kids back to school like I do, for example -- this is something you might want to keep an eye on.