Are Innumerate Pundits Problematic?
See new word thread! Thanks RFA. Never knew the name for my lifelong affliction before!
How do we trust pundits with numbers in other situations (such as the COVID-19 fatality rate)?
They made a stupid mistake. They corrected themselves and admitted it was stupid, shortly after making the mistake. And made fun of themselves (see, for example) at end of this post).
That was all days ago, by the way. Not for nothing, but "Innumeracy" includes not having a good perspective on relative measures like the passage of time.
Buying a calculator, brb— Mara Gay (@MaraGay) March 6, 2020
The bigger problem of innumeracy is the practice of pretty much all of our media never providing context when they talk about billions of trillions of government spending.
Most people have no concept of how big these numbers are. None at all. But worse, they have no idea of how these numbers relate to our federal budget, our GDP or our national wealth. News sources can easily give context by telling us what percentage a particular number is as a percentage of our budget, for example.
It's easy to be scared by "it will cost 10 billion over ten years". Sounds like a lot. But at 1 billion a year, it's barely a blip in our federal budget. Yearly budget is 4.8T, so we're talking .2%. (Please feel free to check my math.)
It is one of our media's biggest failings, and leads to a pretty innumerate citizenry.
Here's a good example of innumeracy.
President Trump reassures us in a tweet today: "So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu." CDC estimates that there were 35 million cases last flu season.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
Do the math. That's about .1% fatality.
The president also says in that tweet: "At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!"
That's a 4% fatality.
So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!
drummerboy said:
It's easy to be scared by "it will cost 10 billion over ten years". Sounds like a lot. But at 1 billion a year, it's barely a blip in our federal budget. Yearly budget is 4.8T, so we're talking .2%. (Please feel free to check my math.)
It is one of our media's biggest failings, and leads to a pretty innumerate citizenry.
1 / 4,800 = 0.0002 = 0.02%
(or so calculates the media guy)
drummerboy said:
The bigger problem of innumeracy is the practice of pretty much all of our media never providing context when they talk about billions of trillions of government spending.
Most people have no concept of how big these numbers are. None at all. But worse, they have no idea of how these numbers relate to our federal budget, our GDP or our national wealth. News sources can easily give context by telling us what percentage a particular number is as a percentage of our budget, for example.
It's easy to be scared by "it will cost 10 billion over ten years". Sounds like a lot. But at 1 billion a year, it's barely a blip in our federal budget. Yearly budget is 4.8T, so we're talking .2%. (Please feel free to check my math.)
It is one of our media's biggest failings, and leads to a pretty innumerate citizenry.
I was taught “A penny saved is a penny earned” growing up. It has helped keep me solvent for the last eight decades, or so. 
nohero said:
Here's a good example of innumeracy.
President Trump reassures us in a tweet today: "So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu." CDC estimates that there were 35 million cases last flu season.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
Do the math. That's about .1% fatality.
The president also says in that tweet: "At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!"
That's a 4% fatality.
Do you think that the COVID17's delayed symptoms (IOW, asymptomatic for first 10 days to two weeks) has an affect on the 4% fatality rate that you are citing?
22 deaths/546 COVID-17 confirmed cases= 4.029%
RealityForAll said:
Do you think that the COVID17's delayed symptoms (IOW, asymptomatic for first 10 days to two weeks) has an affect on the 4% fatality rate that you are citing?
22 deaths/546 COVID-17 confirmed cases= 4.029%
Yes.
DaveSchmidt said:
drummerboy said:
It's easy to be scared by "it will cost 10 billion over ten years". Sounds like a lot. But at 1 billion a year, it's barely a blip in our federal budget. Yearly budget is 4.8T, so we're talking .2%. (Please feel free to check my math.)
It is one of our media's biggest failings, and leads to a pretty innumerate citizenry.
1 / 4,800 = 0.0002 = 0.02%
(or so calculates the media guy)
ack, all those zeros burned out my TI-2500
Anyway, it's even less than I thought.
Corrected by Media for Math Mistake, Drummerboy Points to Calculator
noob, a little numeracy alone was enough to question the decimal place...
if we're going to correct errors here, shouldn't we also point out the virus is COVID-19?
ml1 said:
if we're going to correct errors here, shouldn't we also point out the virus is COVID-19?
No way I was going to point that out.
Easy way to remember is to sing it, to “Come On Eileen” by Dexys Midnight Runners.
ml1 said:
if we're going to correct errors here, shouldn't we also point out the virus is COVID-19?
nohero said:
Easy way to remember is to sing it, to “Come On Eileen” by Dexys Midnight Runners.
ml1 said:
if we're going to correct errors here, shouldn't we also point out the virus is COVID-19?
reminds me of when I used to travel a lot on business to one particular airport. We'd usually land at Gate A19, which always made me think of Steely Dan.
Cons have had a very entertaining few days. Hope they enjoyed it. It was kinda funny. And innocuous.
Libs have had 3 years of serious "miscalculations," those of real consequence to the U.S. and Planet Earth at large. And it ain't funny at all. Except for the part where idiots like Matt Gaetz have had to self-quarantine. Hope he's still got his mask on.
Touché
Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, tried to downplay fears of the novel coronavirus on Tuesday by claiming “350 million” Americans had influenza this year alone.
During an interview with Fox News, McCaul said that shutting down the Capitol Building over virus fears would not be “the right message to the world” even though at least six lawmakers have quarantined themselves after they came into contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19.
Posted this on Rose Garden, but the mathematicians here will be interested...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/health/coronavirus-deaths-rates.html
Here's another idiot who probably has to take his shoes and socks off to count beyond 10: The United States Leading Causes of Death, CDC data: Heart Disease: 635,260 Cancer: 598,038 Accidents: 161,374 CLRD: 154,596 Stroke: 142,142 FLU: At least 12,000 people have died between Oct. 2019 - Feb. 2020, Likely at the very bottom, Coronavirus: 27
nohero
Here's another idiot who probably has to take his shoes and socks off to count beyond 10:
For someone without fingers, that a cruel shot!
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Recently, Mekita Rivas of the WaPo (apparently jokingly) tweeted the following (tweet has been subsequently deleted): "Bloomberg spent $500 million on ads. The U.S. Population, 327 million. He could have given each American $1 million and have had lunch money left over."
Then Brian Williams of NBC and Mara Gay of the NYT editorial board (MG on the show with BW) spent time on air discussing this tweet as factual without ever challenging or questioning the bad math (or the fact that it was an apparent joke). "Brian Williams and Mara Gay of the New York Times Board of Editors repeated it and in their repeating, showed that they believed it."
"Why is this so disturbing? Because many people get their news from people like Brian Williams. When various critics of Medicare for All and/or the Green New Deal talk about how those programs, alone or together, will result in increases in government spending of many trillions of dollars over just 10 years, they think that they are communicating something important. I do too. But some of the media people to whom they’re communicating do what I have pointed out is a major error innumerate people make: mistaking one large number with another large number."
Both of the above quotes from: https://www.econlib.org/the-serious-innumeracy-of-some-mainstream-news-outlets/
See link (to Politco article and clip of discussion): https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/06/msnbcs_brian_williams_new_york_times_editorial_board_member_mara_gay_five_divided_by_three_equals_one_million.html
Also see: https://www.freespeechdaily.com/2020/03/06/brian-williams-nyts-mara-gay-flunk-math-on-bloomberg-spending/