A poll for the posters

Question

If Trump wins, are we headed towards authoritarianism?

Yes

No

Yes

Probably not.  I mean, we know Trump wants it and a few high profile Republicans are desperate to use Trump once more to continue their hold on the Senate hoping that there are enough idiots to vote for them, but I don't think they're going to do well in November.  Many Republicans are not mentioning their party affiliation in ads.  Biden will have both houses and he should use them to impeach whoever Trump appoints to RBG's seat.

I knew I should have qualified it with "if Trump wins".

I think I will.

Yes 

Yes

No. 

I think it's a widely accepted truth that the powers of the presidency have expanded over the years, probably beyond what the constitution provided for. This long-term expansion has occurred under administrations of both parties, including GWB, Obama, and now Trump.

So while we have been literally headed towards authoritarianism for a number of years and this long-term secular trend is likely to continue, the question, as I read it, asks whether a Trump second term would be the specific catalyst toward a move toward authoritarianism. So on that I must respond no. 

I think what we'll primarily see is a deepening and widening of corruption. We've seen it play out in the federal government already. At first it was the replacement of department heads with extreme ideologues -- eg Sessions in the AG spot. That's unfortunate, but not surprising, and not corruption. What we saw though is that Trump doesn't actually care about ideology, he cares about personal loyalty to himself, and now in his fourth year we've seen he's largely gotten this in place. So now you see things like CDC suppressing data, DHS manipulating intelligence, USPS shenanigans...  These agencies aren't acting in pursuit of any conservative ideology really, just in pursuit of defending and advancing Trump's interests and funneling money to Trump and his associates.

In a second term, expect that to expand out to the private sector. Prominent national companies will face pressure to act on behalf of Trump's interests, with the carrot of receiving some of the spoils (lucrative contracts, public infrastructure sold to them, etc) and the stick of IRS audits, DOJ investigations, etc. Media outlets will be especially vulnerable -- they'll find out what it means to "open up the libel laws." 

Basically, the Hungarian model.

And for fans of lashings of the old ultraviolence, plenty of brutal attacks on anyone daring to take part in any anti-regime demonstrations and a blind eye turned to private vigilantes deciding to pursue second amendment remedies against enemies of the Trump state. Most of the violence will happen off screen, and when the mass graves are exposed in a few decades we can all plead ignorance.

For most people I suppose it won't be too bad. Enjoy your tax breaks and tell yourself that the increasingly rapid decay of all our public infrastructure just proves that government can't do anything right and it's not at all due to the fact that everything's either been outright privatized or under the control of agency heads so deeply corrupt the term "embezzlement" can't even come close to describing the scale of the looting. But it's ok because Hillary Clinton once sent an email and AOC is a socialist.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/how-to-build-an-autocracy/513872/

PVW said:

I think what we'll primarily see is a deepening and widening of corruption. We've seen it play out in the federal government already. At first it was the replacement of department heads with extreme ideologues -- eg Sessions in the AG spot. That's unfortunate, but not surprising, and not corruption. What we saw though is that Trump doesn't actually care about ideology, he cares about personal loyalty to himself, and now in his fourth year we've seen he's largely gotten this in place. So now you see things like CDC suppressing data, DHS manipulating intelligence, USPS shenanigans...  These agencies aren't acting in pursuit of any conservative ideology really, just in pursuit of defending and advancing Trump's interests and funneling money to Trump and his associates.

In a second term, expect that to expand out to the private sector. Prominent national companies will face pressure to act on behalf of Trump's interests, with the carrot of receiving some of the spoils (lucrative contracts, public infrastructure sold to them, etc) and the stick of IRS audits, DOJ investigations, etc. Media outlets will be especially vulnerable -- they'll find out what it means to "open up the libel laws." 

Basically, the Hungarian model.

And for fans of lashings of the old ultraviolence, plenty of brutal attacks on anyone daring to take part in any anti-regime demonstrations and a blind eye turned to private vigilantes deciding to pursue second amendment remedies against enemies of the Trump state. Most of the violence will happen off screen, and when the mass graves are exposed in a few decades we can all plead ignorance.

For most people I suppose it won't be too bad. Enjoy your tax breaks and tell yourself that the increasingly rapid decay of all our public infrastructure just proves that government can't do anything right and it's not at all due to the fact that everything's either been outright privatized or under the control of agency heads so deeply corrupt the term "embezzlement" can't even come close to describing the scale of the looting. But it's ok because Hillary Clinton once sent an email and AOC is a socialist.

 this strikes me as absolutely spot on.  It's going to be bad in a Trump second term whatever label we decide to put on it.  The corruption and vindictiveness is going to be unlike anything we've ever seen. And with the SCOTUS going to a solid conservative majority, kiss the ACA goodbye, and possibly any of the gains the country has made in reproductive rights and civil rights in the past 60 years.  

PVW said:

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/how-to-build-an-autocracy/513872/

Long but insightful article

ml1 said:

PVW said:

I think what we'll primarily see is a deepening and widening of corruption. We've seen it play out in the federal government already. At first it was the replacement of department heads with extreme ideologues -- eg Sessions in the AG spot. That's unfortunate, but not surprising, and not corruption. What we saw though is that Trump doesn't actually care about ideology, he cares about personal loyalty to himself, and now in his fourth year we've seen he's largely gotten this in place. So now you see things like CDC suppressing data, DHS manipulating intelligence, USPS shenanigans...  These agencies aren't acting in pursuit of any conservative ideology really, just in pursuit of defending and advancing Trump's interests and funneling money to Trump and his associates.

In a second term, expect that to expand out to the private sector. Prominent national companies will face pressure to act on behalf of Trump's interests, with the carrot of receiving some of the spoils (lucrative contracts, public infrastructure sold to them, etc) and the stick of IRS audits, DOJ investigations, etc. Media outlets will be especially vulnerable -- they'll find out what it means to "open up the libel laws." 

Basically, the Hungarian model.

And for fans of lashings of the old ultraviolence, plenty of brutal attacks on anyone daring to take part in any anti-regime demonstrations and a blind eye turned to private vigilantes deciding to pursue second amendment remedies against enemies of the Trump state. Most of the violence will happen off screen, and when the mass graves are exposed in a few decades we can all plead ignorance.

For most people I suppose it won't be too bad. Enjoy your tax breaks and tell yourself that the increasingly rapid decay of all our public infrastructure just proves that government can't do anything right and it's not at all due to the fact that everything's either been outright privatized or under the control of agency heads so deeply corrupt the term "embezzlement" can't even come close to describing the scale of the looting. But it's ok because Hillary Clinton once sent an email and AOC is a socialist.

 this strikes me as absolutely spot on.  It's going to be bad in a Trump second term whatever label we decide to put on it.  The corruption and vindictiveness is going to be unlike anything we've ever seen. And with the SCOTUS going to a solid conservative majority, kiss the ACA goodbye, and possibly any of the gains the country has made in reproductive rights and civil rights in the past 60 years.  

Government needs to be representative of the people. And if it isn't, it needs to be fixed, traditions be damned. The Senate is not representative of the people, because it over-represents people that live in rural areas over people that live in urban areas. In addition to that, it does not represent the people of Puerto Rico and DC at all. As a result, the SCOTUS is also not representative of the people of the US.

Mitch McConnell is technically within his rights to ram through another SCOTUS appointment, and was also technically within his rights to block Merrick Garland.

However, we are technically within our rights to pack the SCOTUS and move to statehood for Puerto Rico and DC. It is time we stop being afraid of doing something bold. The Republicans do not have any reservations of pushing to the limits of the law, so why should we?

Probably not.  With a win in 2020 I think Trump will proclaim Victory Uber Alles and retreat to his TV and Filet-O-Fish.  He will certainly ramp up his efforts to steal, and the R's will occasionally wake him up and roll him out to sign something, but that's about as much effort as he will put forth.  

Red_Barchetta said:

Probably not.  With a win in 2020 I think Trump will proclaim Victory Uber Alles and retreat to his TV and Filet-O-Fish.  He will certainly ramp up his efforts to steal, and the R's will occasionally wake him up and roll him out to sign something, but that's about as much effort as he will put forth.  

 That's the best case scenario. The worst case scenario terrible to contemplate.

Trump's instincts are authoritarian. There are too many historical examples of freedom giving way to repression, darkness and brutality not to be extremely worried.

Red_Barchetta said:

Probably not.  With a win in 2020 I think Trump will proclaim Victory Uber Alles and retreat to his TV and Filet-O-Fish.  He will certainly ramp up his efforts to steal, and the R's will occasionally wake him up and roll him out to sign something, but that's about as much effort as he will put forth.  

 It doesn't matter where Trump retreats to, as he is not running the show. Miller and Barr are in control.

drummerboy said:

Red_Barchetta said:

Probably not.  With a win in 2020 I think Trump will proclaim Victory Uber Alles and retreat to his TV and Filet-O-Fish.  He will certainly ramp up his efforts to steal, and the R's will occasionally wake him up and roll him out to sign something, but that's about as much effort as he will put forth.  

 It doesn't matter where Trump retreats to, as he is not running the show. Miller and Barr are in control.

 Also one of Trump's driving forces, which he's been very open about throughout his life, is getting revenge.  He may be lazy but he's certainly going to sic whatever forces he can on anyone he feels has been "very unfair" to him.  It doesn't take much imagination to think of Barr's DOJ bringing trumped up charges against anyone who testified against Trump in the impeachment, as well as any former staffer who wrote a book critical of Trump.  And that will be only the beginning.  If they get away with it, we might see charges against Democratic mayors, governors and members of Congress before they're done.

thought I'd share this. seems pertinent

That's where we are now. It's not where the US is going. This is now.

We’re right on the precipice, we can’t afford to have this rock slip from under our foot. Watching people you have known for years saying they are voting for Trump is like having someone behind you with a long stick pushing the dirt away that’s holding the rock in place. The stuff nightmares are made of 

We really are in a dangerous place. People who generally downplay these kinds of scenarios are starting to freak out a bit. I think there is a real, actual danger that Trump will try to stay in power even if he loses.

I'm feeling less nervous about him actually winning the election, but more worried about him provoking civil conflict. If it comes to that, though, I do not believe he would succeed. I think that given a direct, frontal challenge, the country would reject the attempt to overthrow our democracy.

My biggest fear had been that, given the centrality of white supremacy to our country's history, Trump's appeal might be stronger than it appeared and he would be able to win enough votes in the right states to win the electoral college. I think the odds of that are diminishing. But I've been thinking a bit about the crises of 1850s (haven't we all?) as the country slid toward disunion, and when the final crisis came, the truth is that the majority of Americans chose the union. They voted for Lincoln, and then when the war started they fought for America. This despite the fact that many were deeply racist.

I don't think we are headed for actual civil war. Anything is possible I suppose but I think there's a lot of preconditions missing to make that likely. I do think a good deal of unrest, even a lot of violence, is possible. I think in the face of that the vast majority of Americans, even among Republicans, would reject this and rally to the country.

The problem is that at the time of the Civil War, it was pretty obvious what the threat to the union was, so it was easier to pick a side. The options were pretty black and white.

Now, however, it's really not that clear to most people. If you asked the average voter what was at stake in this election, they're not going to say "the future of our democracy". And that, of course, is a failure of our media.

PVW said:

We really are in a dangerous place. People who generally downplay these kinds of scenarios are starting to freak out a bit. I think there is a real, actual danger that Trump will try to stay in power even if he loses.

I'm feeling less nervous about him actually winning the election, but more worried about him provoking civil conflict. If it comes to that, though, I do not believe he would succeed. I think that given a direct, frontal challenge, the country would reject the attempt to overthrow our democracy.

My biggest fear had been that, given the centrality of white supremacy to our country's history, Trump's appeal might be stronger than it appeared and he would be able to win enough votes in the right states to win the electoral college. I think the odds of that are diminishing. But I've been thinking a bit about the crises of 1850s (haven't we all?) as the country slid toward disunion, and when the final crisis came, the truth is that the majority of Americans chose the union. They voted for Lincoln, and then when the war started they fought for America. This despite the fact that many were deeply racist.

I don't think we are headed for actual civil war. Anything is possible I suppose but I think there's a lot of preconditions missing to make that likely. I do think a good deal of unrest, even a lot of violence, is possible. I think in the face of that the vast majority of Americans, even among Republicans, would reject this and rally to the country.

It depends on how you define civil unrest / civil war. It won't be like two armies with generals that march to a battlefield and then go to battle. It would be more like white extremist groups (like young boys), or more in general the Boogaloo movement, who would first show up at polling places to intimidate people, and then confront MLB protesters, or left-wing protesters, and a small scale firefight breaks out and they kill a few people (and maybe a few of hem get killed). And then the number of these incidents increase, and before you know it you have all these random violent clashes. And then the police gets involved, and now they start fighting 3 ways. And then these boogaloos start creating violence in "liberal" places like SF or NY, or campuses. Etcetera.

And I very much don't share your optimism about Republicans to put country over party. If they did they would not seat a new justice on SCOTUS now.

drummerboy said:

The problem is that at the time of the Civil War, it was pretty obvious what the threat to the union was, so it was easier to pick a side. The options were pretty black and white.

Now, however, it's really not that clear to most people. If you asked the average voter what was at stake in this election, they're not going to say "the future of our democracy". And that, of course, is a failure of our media.

 I think the options to Trump followers are quite black and white.