Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine

Vladimir already thinks Ukraine is Russia - why does Ukraine even try to defend themselves?

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/12/europe/ukraine-zelensky-front-lines/index.html

Be prepared for a big Pro-Putin propaganda Campaign in Eastern Ukraine shortly.

Here's some info:

https://www.voanews.com/europe/what-russia-wants-ukraine

Are you expecting a response from any tedious defenders of Putin, who seem to have given up pushing that garbage here on MOL?

Not necessarily.  I already know where I can find those points of view via the Twitterverse.

The trickiest part is knowing where to go for information.  This article gets translated pretty well on chrome:

https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2021/04/12/v-atmosfere-voennoi-isterii

And I'm not sure if we mentioned Putin declaring that he's free to run again thanks to the "2020 Constitutional reform".  For those who aren't familiar, the amendment states that presidents can only serve for 2 terms.  This BEGINS in 2024.  So, any terms served prior do not count.

Here's another good piece - this one about Crimea:

https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2021/03/20/krym-ikh

Looks like another Putin compound is going up.

Does Putin care about sanctions at all?

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/14/politics/russia-sanctions-expel-officials-hacking-election/index.html

But I don't know what alternate solutions we have.  Of course everything Putin does is justified - according to his personal news media.

Here's their rebuttal:

https://sputniknews.com/world/202104151082638672-us-slaps-new-sanctions-on-russia-expels-diplomats/

Disconnect Russia from SWIFT and freeze the assets of their criminal oligarchs.

I see Russia's threats against Ukraine are getting rather real.  There seem to be 2 parts to the threat.  One is that Russia is, predictably and understandably unhappy by the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO at some point in the future.  I thought it was clear that NATO was to keep out of countries that were part of the Soviet Union in 1938 (before the invasions of the Baltic states), but U.S. leaders seemed to be blind to this little detail and have been meddling in the Caucasus (Georgia) and Ukraine.  The other part is that Russia has a visceral, emotional attachment to Ukraine and, at some level, believe it should be part of Russia.

I can't claim to know Putin's true intentions.  I think his feelings about NATO are clear.  Less sure if he feels that the emotional attachment to Ukraine is worth the cost of invading.

Is this really something that should be consigned to the Russia ghetto?  At some point, doesn't real discussion about real events in Russia etc deserve to take place on the politics thread?

I say this as someone who never looks at the Russia ghetto and only found this thread because it briefly showed up on the main page this morning.

ETA:  Either that was a very fast response or this thread is jumping back and forth somehow.

this thread is in both categories. never saw that before.

drummerboy said:

this thread is in both categories. never saw that before.

Both threads have historically always been the same category. The division between them is arbitrary. I blame one of the other threads - perhaps the Mets thread - for needlessly sowing artificial divisions that have kept these historically unified threads apart.

what country is up next after ukraine?  estonia? ( no!)

I think he wants them all back

drummerboy said:

this thread is in both categories. never saw that before.

it's in one categories - I just stopped putting Russia stuff into it's own subforum - now it's with all of the politics.

oots said:

what country is up next after ukraine?  estonia? ( no!)

I think he wants them all back

Belarus is pretty likely:

https://www.dw.com/en/will-russia-swallow-up-belarus/a-59193355

I think Putin has learned after Crimea - that it's fairly easy to acquire neighboring properties.

I really hope that the Russian people will be able to stand up to Vlad one of these years.  Unfortunately he has the personal army to suppress any opposition.

oots said:

what country is up next after ukraine?  estonia? ( no!)

I think he wants them all back

Probably, but the Baltics are NATO members.   This means, however, that the response to direct action against Ukraine will have to be tough enough to make Putin realize that a move on the Baltics would mean a shooting war with NATO.

tjohn said:

Probably, but the Baltics are NATO members.   This means, however, that the response to direct action against Ukraine will have to be tough enough to make Putin realize that a move on the Baltics would mean a shooting war with NATO.

Do you think it really would?  Is the Netherlands going to go to war with Russia over Latvia?  Is the US? I worry that 21st century NATO is a house of cards and Putin may well be tempted to blow on it.

It's also important to remember that a big chunk of Europe gets its heating fuel from Russia.

Klinker said:

Do you think it really would?  Is the Netherlands going to go to war with Russia over Latvia?  Is the US? I worry that 21st century NATO is a house of cards and Putin may well be tempted to blow on it.

It's also important to remember that a big chunk of Europe gets its heating fuel from Russia.

Really good points to consider. 

Klinker said:

tjohn said:

Probably, but the Baltics are NATO members.   This means, however, that the response to direct action against Ukraine will have to be tough enough to make Putin realize that a move on the Baltics would mean a shooting war with NATO.

Do you think it really would?  Is the Netherlands going to go to war with Russia over Latvia?  Is the US? I worry that 21st century NATO is a house of cards and Putin may well be tempted to blow on it.

It's also important to remember that a big chunk of Europe gets its heating fuel from Russia.

A good question, that is for sure.

On the positive side, if fuel dependence on Russia isn't an incentive to accelerate the shift to non-carbon energy sources, I don't know what is.

So Russia basically wants a guarantee that we won't bring Ukraine into NATO is what it sounds like.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/17/world/europe/russia-nato-security-deal.html

They don't appreciate our reaction to their buildup at the Ukraine border.  Pretty interesting standoff.  

I have always been under the impression that Russia was clear from the early 90's that they didn't want NATO to try to include nations that were part of the USSR in 1938.  

jamie said:

So Russia basically wants a guarantee that we won't bring Ukraine into NATO is what it sounds like.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/17/world/europe/russia-nato-security-deal.html

They don't appreciate our reaction to their buildup at the Ukraine border.  Pretty interesting standoff.  

Where are the Russian tanks in this scenario?  And I might ask, let's say we all woke up tomorrow morning and Ukraine was firmly under Russia's thumb as it has often been in the past: Please enumerate the ways this would affect your life.

terp said:

Where are the Russian tanks in this scenario?  And I might ask, let's say we all woke up tomorrow morning and Ukraine was firmly under Russia's thumb as it has often been in the past: Please enumerate the ways this would affect your life.

lol, seriously?  Please tell me how responding to this thread was a more effective use of you time then not responding to it?  

jamie said:

terp said:

Where are the Russian tanks in this scenario?  And I might ask, let's say we all woke up tomorrow morning and Ukraine was firmly under Russia's thumb as it has often been in the past: Please enumerate the ways this would affect your life.

lol, seriously?  Please tell me how responding to this thread was a more effective use of you time then not responding to it?  

Generally, its futile because people are taken by these narratives fed to them by the corporate press.  That being said, I think the risk/reward calculation for the American people of extending our empire to Russias doorstep is a really poor one.  So, while I would agree that discussing these things with the typical cast of characters is futile, if you can convince 1 or 2 that it isn't a good idea, perhaps some good can come of it.

Regarding the futility of conversing with people who aren't very bright, but are convinced of their position without thinking it through, do you care to answer my question?  How does the Ukraine falling back under Russia's sphere affect your life?

terp said:

jamie said:

terp said:

Where are the Russian tanks in this scenario?  And I might ask, let's say we all woke up tomorrow morning and Ukraine was firmly under Russia's thumb as it has often been in the past: Please enumerate the ways this would affect your life.

lol, seriously?  Please tell me how responding to this thread was a more effective use of you time then not responding to it?  

Generally, its futile because people are taken by these narratives fed to them by the corporate press.  That being said, I think the risk/reward calculation for the American people of extending our empire to Russias doorstep is a really poor one.  So, while I would agree that discussing these things with the typical cast of characters is futile, if you can convince 1 or 2 that it isn't a good idea, perhaps some good can come of it.

Regarding the futility of conversing with people who aren't very bright, but are convinced of their position without thinking it through, do you care to answer my question?  How does the Ukraine falling back under Russia's sphere affect your life?

Is that the pertinent question? I think not. Perhaps the real question is whether we should allow other countries to take over their neighbors. Don't Ukrainians have a natural right to be independent? Don't they deserve the support of the rest of the world?

Did our interventions in South and Central America during the 20th century affect our lives directly very much, other than giving us sugar and bananas? If not, did that make our interventions there OK, or something the rest of the world shouldn't have concerned themselves with?

Anyway, one can't predict the effects of Russia taking over Ukraine. To pretend that the subjugation of one country by another has no effect on the world is folly.

Sure.  That's what's happening. 

explain to me why I should listen to a recording of two officials under a different President from 7 years ago.

drummerboy said:

explain to me why I should listen to a recording of two officials under a different President from 7 years ago.

Because you are naive enough to believe that we are only inserting ourselves in the affairs of these other countries to protect them when big bad Russia tries to infringe on their independence.   But the fact is that we were actively involved in getting them into our sphere to the point where we were selecting who would take over.

terp said:

drummerboy said:

explain to me why I should listen to a recording of two officials under a different President from 7 years ago.

Because you are naive enough to believe that we are only inserting ourselves in the affairs of these other countries to protect them when big bad Russia tries to infringe on their independence.   But the fact is that we were actively involved in getting them into our sphere to the point where we were selecting who would take over.

And you think that what the U.S. was trying to do and what Russia is trying to do are somehow equal?

No.  We are clearly the aggressor.   How do you think we would react if Russia had a military pact with Canada or Mexico and they were backing offensive military operations in those countries?

terp said:

No.  We are clearly the aggressor.   How do you think we would react if Russia had a military pact with Canada or Mexico and they were backing offensive military operations in those countries?

Russia is apparently amassing troops and we're the aggressor because of a 7 year old conversation where two diplomats spoke frankly about what they thought about potential Ukraine leaders.

And did we in fact install the Ukrainian government?

And your analogy really sucks. Are you accusing the U.S. for "backing offensive military operations" in Ukraine? How so? Offense against a potential invasion? Sounds like defense to me.

I think terp is just greenlighting the reunification of the Soviet Union- no biggie from a libertarian pov.  I had a friend in Ukraine who was ready to fight last time Putin took back Crimea.  I guess your point is that we just shouldn’t care.