Meet the Mets (For Mets Fans Only!)

I think this team's best years were when we had a Mookie. 

I'm not sure there's a player I ever liked as much as Mookie Wilson. Hustle, positive attitude, team spirit. The guy gave us all of it.


That being said, this DeGrom kid is something special as well.

171 games pitched, and a lifetime ERA of 2.62.  He should have 100 wins already instead of 66.  I’m glad he won the Cy Young again, but like I said before I hope he gets 25 wins next year with an ERA of 3.9, because the team owes him a ****ton of run support.


Jacob deGrom's Remarkable Run

This two year span of deGrom's is among the best in MLB since 1950, if you take into account the overall league scoring environment.  Pedro Martinez's seasons pitching in Fenway, and Greg Maddux in Atlanta during the steroids era are the gold standard, but deGrom is right up there with guys like Gibson in '68-'69 or Clemens in '97-98.

I can't find the stat online, but the most amazing to me is the percentage of deGrom's starts in which he has given up only one or zero runs.   It was 44 of this first 100 starts, so it's got to still be around that proportion through last season.


Jacob deGrom’s Remarkable Run

by Ben Clemens

September 27, 2019

Wednesday evening in Flushing, Jacob deGrom put a bow on another superlative season. For seven innings, he flummoxed the Marlins, striking out seven while only allowing two hits. It wasn’t surprising, exactly — deGrom is one of the best few pitchers in baseball and the Marlins are, well, the Marlins. For once, the Mets provided deGrom with copious run support — the three they scored in the first would have been enough, but they added six more runs over the next two innings.

With 32 starts in the books, deGrom looks to have handily lapped the field in the Cy Young race. If FIP-based WAR is your preferred metric, he ranks second in the majors, behind only Gerrit Cole and half a win clear of Max Scherzer. By RA9-WAR, he’s also second in the majors, this time behind Justin Verlander, and miles ahead of NL runner up Jack Flaherty.

Craig Edwards published a Cy Young tracker last week if you’d prefer to dig even deeper into the minutiae, but deGrom was already in the lead, and his two most recent starts (14 innings, 16 strikeouts, one walk, and no runs) only widened the gap. There probably won’t be much surprise come awards season.

But while there isn’t much suspense when it comes to ranking deGrom’s preeminence in the National League this year, his two-year run has vaulted him into select historical territory. His ERA-, which controls for scoring environment, works out to 51 over the last two years, which means he allows about half as many runs as a league average pitcher.

That 51 ERA-, ludicrous as it is, can’t compete with the best seasons of all time — Pedro Martinez’s preposterous 2000 worked out to a 35 ERA- (1.74 ERA in Fenway in the heart of the steroids era, goodness gracious), and there have been 42 qualifying seasons with an ERA- of 50 or lower since 1901. Even if we limit ourselves to 1949 and beyond, there have been 24 of those seasons. There are plenty of Hall of Famers on the list, but also Kevin Brown, Dean Chance, and Trevor Bauer.

But looking at that list obscures what’s been so great about deGrom’s recent run. He didn’t just happen into one tremendous season. He did it twice, and twice in a row, which increases the degree of difficulty exponentially. I’m not saying it’s easy to post an ERA- of 50 — after all, almost no one has done it — but it’s a lot easier to do for one season than for two. ERA itself is prone to extreme results, which is a huge help.

For example, the average ERA- of the 24 pitcher-seasons that we’re looking at is 45. That’s not surprising — it’s good to be good! Their peripheral stats, however, aren’t quite as overwhelming. Their FIP-, for example, averages 58, and FIP is a more regressed, more stable statistic. For what it’s worth, deGrom’s two-year FIP- is 55, more or less in line with these great seasons.

But even looking at more stable indicators undersells deGrom’s run. What’s really impressive isn’t that his underlying metrics have been better than you’d think; it’s that he’s done it for two years in a row. And this recent stretch isn’t just two good seasons in a row; it’s quite literally one of the best two-season runs of all time.

Here are the 10 best two-season ERA- marks since 1949:

Best 2-Season ERA- Marks

SeasonNameERA-Cy Young Awards
1994-1995Greg Maddux382
1999-2000Pedro Martinez382
1993-1994Greg Maddux482
2002-2003Pedro Martinez490
1968-1969Bob Gibson501
1997-1998Roger Clemens512
2013-2014Clayton Kershaw512
2018-2019Jacob deGrom511*
1998-1999Pedro Martinez521
1995-1996Greg Maddux521

*2019 CYA not yet decided

Right away, that’s remarkable company. Leaving deGrom out of it, everyone else is in the Hall of Fame, a future Hall of Famer, or Roger Clemens. You’d have to go all the way down to number 19, Kevin Brown’s 1996-1997 seasons, to find someone whose career wasn’t Hall of Fame caliber (and it’s a near thing — Kevin Brown is better than you think). Pitchers can’t be this good by accident.

The list doesn’t get any less impressive if you prefer FIP as your indicator of excellence:

Best 2-Season FIP- Marks

SeasonNameFIP-Cy Young Awards
1999-2000Pedro Martinez402
2000-2001Randy Johnson502
2014-2015Clayton Kershaw511
2002-2003Pedro Martinez530
1994-1995Greg Maddux532
1984-1985Dwight Gooden541
2001-2002Randy Johnson542
1997-1998Roger Clemens542
1994-1995Randy Johnson551
2018-2019Jacob deGrom551*

*2019 CYA not yet decided

Aside from the fact that Pedro’s 2002-2003 seasons were tremendous despite a lack of award recognition, these lists basically say the same thing. When you think of modern pitching legends, Jacob deGrom belongs.

One thing that this list made me wonder is whether deGrom’s recent form could lead to a Hall of Fame push. He’s already 31, which sounds shocking offhand, but it makes more sense when you realize that he didn’t debut in the majors until his age 26 season. That’s a problem — deGrom’s 31.5 fWAR by age 31 is only 97th in the post-integration era, and you don’t have to look any further than number 96, Erik Hanson, to see that his pace is nothing special.

That doesn’t mean he has no shot, though. The easiest way to look at Hall of Fame standards is to look at our own Jay Jaffe’s JAWS score, and though that shows deGrom far behind, it gives a realistic idea of what he’d have to do to reach Hall status. The average seven-year peak for starting pitchers is 49.9 bWAR, and deGrom is at 34.9 despite only pitching in the majors for six seasons. He also has room to improve on some of his early seasons — if he can average 6 bWAR for the next three years, no easy feat, that would get him to a 46.3 bWAR peak.

Of course, a 31 year old pitcher who has already had Tommy John surgery once being one of the best pitchers in baseball for the next three years is far from a given. ZiPS projected him to be worth 4.9 and 4.4 seasons in 2020 and 2021, respectively, before the start of the season, and though it has surely bumped him up slightly in the wake of another superlative campaign, 6 WAR projections don’t exactly grow on trees.

That doesn’t even cover the career WAR portion of JAWS, which deGrom has absolutely no shot at matching. His late start is too hard to overcome; he’d need to average more than 6 WAR a season for the next six years to hit that benchmark, and projecting more future WAR than he has accrued in his entire career go date is a bridge too far even for me. Starting pitching standards are changing, but deGrom looks like a long shot for the Hall either way.

Still, even if the last two years aren’t the start of deGrom’s Hall campaign, they’re a remarkable feat of latter-day pitching. When people talk about the absolute best runs by starters, they talk about peak Gibson, or peak Kershaw, or the absurd 1990’s heroics of Martinez, Clemens, Maddux, and Johnson. They talk about Sandy Koufax, who didn’t quite have the ERA- of the leaders but also frequently threw 300 innings in a season.

Those seasons, those pitchers, are all great. In 2018 and 2019, Jacob deGrom has joined that pantheon. A 2.05 ERA, 2.32 FIP, and 26.5% K-BB sound like video game numbers, and he’s doing that in a two-year stretch that will be remembered for its extreme offense. Maybe the Hall of Fame isn’t in deGrom’s future, but the present is absolutely legendary. We’ve been watching history these past two years, even if the Mets haven’t taken full advantage of it.


Will there be any ramifications for Beltran in this Astros mess? Not a great way to start his tenure. I would assume they'll lose some draft picks and maybe compensation picks. It's shocking to think that they didn't realize that people would figure out what they're doing. There are cameras everywhere. 


He had to be in the know.  It's a pretty stupid move.  Nothing ever stays secret, and we only get one reputation.


I read his last book, The Complete Game. I let my friend borrow it and he happened to run into Darling at a bar in the city and told him he had his book and he was a big fan. Darling told him he'd stop by on his way out and sign the book. The book's unsigned... I didn't really care for the book. I just finished Art Shamsky's book about the '69 Mets. He was signing at the Woodland during the book fair. That was an entertaining book, but sad to see what's happening to Seaver and Harrelson.


I think Darling is at the Woodland at noon on Saturday, not Words. There is an author event at Words on Saturday night, but I don't think Darling will be there.


jfinnegan said:

I think Darling is at the Woodland at noon on Saturday, not Words. There is an author event at Words on Saturday night, but I don't think Darling will be there.

 You are right and I corrected my post.


Cool Twitter thread on audio data from the Astros’ sign-stealing. Not a perfect fit for this Mets thread, but I thought it might be of interest here.

https://twitter.com/no_little_plans/status/1195361616545697805?s=21


Really excited that Jeremy Hefner is the new Mets pitching coach.  He did wonders with the Twins staff and hopefully will help Thor and Diaz re-gain their form.  Hefner focuses on analytics to develop pitch-mix and mechanical adjustments that can really help a pitcher.  


Now I'm reading that the Mets may offer Dom Smith to teams to get them to take Familia and/or Lowrie.   Nothing in return for that talent.


FilmCarp said:

Now I'm reading that the Mets may offer Dom Smith to teams to get them to take Familia and/or Lowrie.   Nothing in return for that talent.

 if it allows them to sign a FA, or make a different trade for someone valuable, then it works the same way.  If it's just to dump salary to save the Wilpons some dough, then no.


FilmCarp said:

Now I'm reading that the Mets may offer Dom Smith to teams to get them to take Familia and/or Lowrie.   Nothing in return for that talent.

 Classic Wilpons. What an absolute Joke. In 2004 and 2005 this team signed or traded for the best starter, reliever, first baseman and center fielder on the market. They're so far removed from Madoff now, they have no good excuse not to spend like a New York team. 


WxNut2.0 said:

FilmCarp said:

Now I'm reading that the Mets may offer Dom Smith to teams to get them to take Familia and/or Lowrie.   Nothing in return for that talent.

 Classic Wilpons. What an absolute Joke. In 2004 and 2005 this team signed or traded for the best starter, reliever, first baseman and center fielder on the market. They're so far removed from Madoff now, they have no good excuse not to spend like a New York team. 

 Exactly.  And yet it's all about the salary cap.



FilmCarp said:

WxNut2.0 said:

FilmCarp said:

Now I'm reading that the Mets may offer Dom Smith to teams to get them to take Familia and/or Lowrie.   Nothing in return for that talent.

 Classic Wilpons. What an absolute Joke. In 2004 and 2005 this team signed or traded for the best starter, reliever, first baseman and center fielder on the market. They're so far removed from Madoff now, they have no good excuse not to spend like a New York team. 

 Exactly.  And yet it's all about the salary cap.

 Which is what makes it so much more infuriating. This year the luxury tax penalty is so little and yet they choose not to exceed it and then expect fans to show up. There's no reason they shouldn't be in on Cole and Rendon, but instead they're going to ignore them pluslet Wheeler walk and go to the Phillies. Absolutely infuriating.


This is a team that blew 30 saves last year and still won 86 games. They have a nice young core to go along with arguably the best pitching staff in baseball, headlined by the best starter in the game. Why aren't they doing everything they can to compete? I can't wait until Yo comes back at the deadline and they pass it off as "getting him back is just like trading for a superstar".


Wheeler to Philly.  Hamels to Atlanta.

Mets stand pat, per usual.


That makes the division tougher by three.  I hate the Mets lack of spending, but I also admit I don't like some of these long contracts for fragile players.  I'd rather own 10 minor league teams and keep producing young studs, but that can't happen.  


He circled back before committing to the Phillies. They made the offer, he brought it to the Mets, the Mets wouldn't match. Total. Joke.


This is a tough one for me to analyze. On the one hand, I love Wheeler's make up and his fighting back from injuries to be a quality starter again. So sad to see him leave the Mets. On the other hand, five years with his fragile history is a hell of a gamble. If it were any other team but the Mets I would think that maybe they know something the Phillies do not know about his durability. But given that it is the Mets, I think they balked at the price tag. The Phillies badly needed a strong pitcher in the middle of their starting rotation and Wheeler fills the bill nicely.  They proved last year they are willing to spend even if they wind up with mediocrity, so this is not a surprise signing and I expect them to sign a few more FAs.


mfpark said:

This is a tough one for me to analyze. On the one hand, I love Wheeler's make up and his fighting back from injuries to be a quality starter again. So sad to see him leave the Mets. On the other hand, five years with his fragile history is a hell of a gamble. If it were any other team but the Mets I would think that maybe they know something the Phillies do not know about his durability. But given that it is the Mets, I think they balked at the price tag. The Phillies badly needed a strong pitcher in the middle of their starting rotation and Wheeler fills the bill nicely.  They proved last year they are willing to spend even if they wind up with mediocrity, so this is not a surprise signing and I expect them to sign a few more FAs.

 His peripherals and analytical stats are really good. To me, he was a no-brainer to at least try to re-sign. That said, this contract really puts into perspective how big a steal deGrom is right now.


Oh and btw, the Wilpons just sold a big stake in the team and basically said they're out in five years.


Well, theyre in negotiations. Maybe not done yet.


I agree that the Mets are cheap, but that Wheeler deal seems exorbitant to me. It's likely he'll take the next step now that he's with the Phillies, but I expected him to be dominant last year after the 2nd half he had in 2018 and it never materialized. 


jfinnegan said:

I agree that the Mets are cheap, but that Wheeler deal seems exorbitant to me. It's likely he'll take the next step now that he's with the Phillies, but I expected him to be dominant last year after the 2nd half he had in 2018 and it never materialized. 

 He was killed by poor defense behind him - his ERA was a half run higher than his FIP last year. He also still posted 4.7 WAR last year. That's now an 9 game swing in the already competitive NL east. Unfortunately, he got what the going rate for the third best starter on the market is. 


Considering deGrom so far is the only good long term deal they have had in over 10 years they are probably hesitant to do anything over 3 or 4 years. I can't imagine what Cole is going to get. Something tells me the Mets will pass on Cole, Strasburg and Bumgarner and go for somebody like Porcello or Wade Miley.


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