oh yeah true - ok top three. Or maybe who the third will be.
I think you'll see Biden and Sanders there, and for the third slot the real questions are (a) which of the others make it past 15% in the first round, and (b) who gets the "second choice" votes.
Katy Tur on MSNBC is already at a Caucus where only Sanders and Warren are viable. Some of the Buttigieg people say they will move toward Warren. A Klobuchar supporter all by himself has gone to Warren
Saw a young woman explaining that when Buttigieg didn't make the cut she switched to Bernie because climate change was important to her and he would be good on climate change. When Katy Tur explained that Warren was also strong on climate change, she said the Bernie people got to her first.
He certainly underperformed in the Caucus covered on CSpan. He came in 5th
Bernie wwas first, Warren second, Pete third and after re-alignment Amy squeeked into fourth
MSNBC is at a Caucus where Bernie was not even viable. Biden and Pete were first followed by Amy and Elizabeth. An 18 year old was for Biden and said his mom was or Yang!
NEW: Bernie Sanders’ support is comparatively weak among late-deciders—13% among those who finally picked their candidate in the last few days. In this group, Pete Buttigieg prevailed with 23%. https://t.co/6knPUWcFpR
They should get rid of caucuses. Only the most dedicated go to them. They're not representative of the voting public and not inclusive. People who have second jobs and don't have childcare don't show up.
Iowa's outsize influence is because its the first primary state. Its time the DNC set the rules on primary dates. Any state not following the DNC date rules should have their delegates disqualified.
Yesterday, I saw pictures in the NY Times of people attending caucuses. They are as diverse as a Trump rally.
ps -
I read that they used an app to report results. The old system was phoning it in. The app failed. But no backup plan? A simple phone in backup? That's incompetence.
pps -
It may be that the DNC can't mandate a primary date. It would be up to the state legislatures.
I think at best you'll have 3 finishers, with the rest under the 15% - and their supporters switching or staying out of the final tally.
While we're waiting, I realized that my "logic" above was incredibly flawed.
The 15% "viability" threshold applies to each precinct, not in the state as a whole. There will be differences among the precincts as to which candidates make it there. Also, there will be differences in delegates awarded.
So of course more than 3 candidates can have tallied votes at the end, for the state results.
In light of this, anyone who hasn't already chosen to ignore everything I type here, please ignore that post.
hopefully this travesty of a clusterflock will kill caucuses forever. And take Iowa with them.
Even without the vote tally screw-up, I think last night would endanger continued reliance on the caucus system. There were reporters in precincts doing live coverage of what was obviously a cumbersome and confusing process.
In the old days, all we knew about the caucus was that it was "black box" - the names of a bunch of candidates were dropped in, and we waited to see in what order they came out. Then declared that this showed us something important.
Last night's coverage could make people say, "Why did we rely on this for so long?"
The Dow Jones is up 400 points - it's reminiscent of the day after Trump won the 2016 election. The reasoning is that Sanders' strong showing will mean that it's Sanders vs Trump and Trump will win. Your mileage may differ.
I think the DNC will change the order of the Primaries but will not be able to get Iowa to ditch their tradition. Admittedly I have had a preoccupation with the dates. Too much time, money and news coverage has been spent on a state which is not representative of the diversity of the Democratic Party.
Sen. Claire McCaskill, expressed anger and frustration at the caucus process, arguing that it should be one person one vote. I believe I heard it's only 15% turnout, usually very young or retirees.
Actually she turned a bit of her temper yesterday, on Trump. As former Senator of Missouri she tweeted out in response to his Kansas congratulations, "It's Missouri, you stone cold idiot."
Guess the top 4-5 from best to worst.
My guess:
Sanders
Biden
Butttigieg
Warren
Klobachar