TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TUESDAY AUG 4


It is still early, and there is wide spread in the models, so please take any predictions made in the next 24 hours with a substantial degree of caution.

Hurricane Isaias is currently a messy cat 1 system just north of Haiti and east of Cuba. In the next 48 hours, it will most likely pass Cuba and turn north towards the east coast of Florida or the Bahamas. After that, it is likely to head up the east coast but models dIverge significantly after 48 hours.

We can expect Isaias to arrive at our latitude between Tues and Wed as a strong trop storm or a cat 1 hurricane based on the current model runs. The storm is slightly more likely to pass just offshore than on land but cannot rule out either at this time. Expect there to be some effect on the area, although what and how bad are still very much up in the air.


max_weisenfeld said:

although what and how bad are still very much up in the air.

I see what you did there.

We just spent a lot of money removing a few very old, large, dead or dying trees from our property. I'm slightly less concerned about a tropical storm landfall than I was.


I object to the name Isaias. Way too hard to spell. What are they thinking?


drummerboy said:

I object to the name Isaias. Way too hard to spell. What are they thinking?

There is a six-year rotating cycle of names.  For the letter "I": Isaias, Ida, Ian, Idalia, Isaac, Imelda

Retired:

Igor 2010
Ike 2008
Inez 1966
Ingrid 2013
Ione 1955
Irene 2011
Iris 2001
Irma 2017
Isabel 2003
Isidore 2002
Ivan 2004


Waiting for:

Ichabod 

Imogene 

ingmar


Family member is in Key West.  Any idea of how much of a hit they might take?  I think they were beyond stupid to go in the first place considering that there is a freakin pandemic going on  question. They said that if they get evacuated to Miami they might just keep driving and come back to NJ


spontaneous said:

Family member is in Key West.  Any idea of how much of a hit they might take?  I think they were beyond stupid to go in the first place considering that there is a freakin pandemic going on 
question
. They said that if they get evacuated to Miami they might just keep driving and come back to NJ

 As of now, they should be fine. Models have largely kept it curving up the east coast around a stout Bermuda high.


"Stout Bermuda high" sounds like an interesting rum drink. 


mrincredible said:

"Stout Bermuda high" sounds like an interesting rum drink. 

 I'd buy it...... Guinness with extract of Panama Red? Sign me up.


Should be a lovely day today, Saturday 8/1.

Then several days of interesting weather, with thunderstorms possible tomorrow and Monday, and Isaias on Tuesday. I'll have more details on Isaias later this morning, but for now suffice to say we can expect a very rainy day Tuesday but not likely hurricane winds.


Isaias looks absolutely horrible right now — in a good way. Shear and dry air are doing quite a number on it. The severe weather setup tomorrow in central/eastern PA/south central NY looks far more interesting at the moment. 


WxNut, can you elaborate on the first part of your post-- does that mean Isiaiiaiaias is weakening for South Florida/Palm Beach County? Debating putting up the storm shutters. 


ril said:

WxNut, can you elaborate on the first part of your post-- does that mean Isiaiiaiaias is weakening for South Florida/Palm Beach County? Debating putting up the storm shutters. 

 Tropical cyclones that take on this evolution are often tough to accurately get a feel for. The storm is being negatively impacted by wind shear and dry air, which has caused it to weaken substantially. A healthy tropical cyclone is one in which the center of the circulation is closed off to the environment around it (think of a hurricane that has a small, circular eye). When the circulation is not closed off, it can ingest dry air which can hamper its intensification. That’s exactly what appears to be happening here.

So the challenge now is determining how that’s gonna impact this storm. If the circulation is weaker it is more likely to impact Florida, but of course as a weaker storm. Tbh I’m not particularly concerned about wind impacts in Florida with this one, but the thing about hurricane intensity is it’s notoriously difficult to forecast. To be safe maybe throw up the shutters, but I don’t see this one being a monster by any means.


ril said:

WxNut, can you elaborate on the first part of your post-- does that mean Isiaiiaiaias is weakening for South Florida/Palm Beach County? Debating putting up the storm shutters. 

 That having been said, if Florida does see an impact it will be close to Palm Beach County. And while it’s still a storm to be taken seriously, it will likely be a glancing blow by a cat 1 hurricane/strong tropical storm. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents


Thanks so much! The a.m. reports seemed to indicate weaker wind than had been predicted last night, but it wasn't as clear as your explanation. Going to split the difference: closing the easy accordion shutters, and skipping the ones that require hanging panels. Fingers crossed.

So far, it's a beautiful sunny, breezy morning here. 


Isaias update for Saturday, Aug 1

Note that WxNut posted while I was writing this, so excuse please the partial redundancy.

Key takeaways for this update:

1. Forecast track and timing is still shifting from model run to model run.

2. Current guidance has Isaias passing either through or near NJ on Tuesday as a tropical storm.

3. Timing is still very uncertain. It is possible that there will be some heavy rain from the system as early as Monday night, and a late as early Wednesday morning, but the main storm is more likely to be a 4 - 6 hour period Tuesday afternoon and/or evening.

4. The main threats for Isaias are heavy rain and localized flooding. As of now, we might see anywhere from 3 - 6 inches of rain over a roughly 24 hour period.

5. No, I'm not sure how to pronounce it either.

Isaias remains a slow-moving cat 1 hurricane at this time over the Bahamas. The storm is more compact now but still messy in shape and structure. It is struggling with dry air and contrary wind conditions as it approaches Florida.

There is a fairly significant difference in the forecast, in part depending on whether Isaias makes landfall on Florida or not, although this is more an issue for North Carolina than NJ. The models differ both between the major models and from run to run. The American GFS model is more westerly and faster, with the PRE Monday night worth about an inch and the main event Tuesday afternoon and evening. The Euro is about 12 hours slower and more to the east. The GFS has a total of 4 - 5 inches of rain, while the Euro only shows 3 - 3.5 inches.

There are a variety of storms (both tropical and winter) that are coastal runners -- that is, they start in the tropics or off the southeast US coast and run up the coast. These storms are of a variety of different types but they share a challenge in forecasting for our area in that, as they run north, small changes in their track can have large impacts on how they affect our immediate area. Isaias, for example, is likely to be a fairly compact storm when it reaches our area; could be only 50 miles across for the main portion. This means a very small shift in the track can have very significant effect on the impact on any specific location.

Also, the effects of the storm are different on the east and west (seaward and landward) sides. On the eastern side of Isaias, wind and storm surge will be significant factors. On the western side, rain is most likely to be the most significant factor. At this time Isaias is more likely to pass east of us (putting us on the western, landward, side) so the forecast is more focused on rain. Since Isaias is so compact, this means that within the NY metro area, both sets of effects are likely to occur, with Long Island more likely to see the wind.

Another fun thing the models are showing is a PRE (Predecessor Rain Effect). This would be an additional inch or two of rain before the storm hits. The PRE is not consistent in all the models, and the location is also shifting from run to run.


max_weisenfeld said:
Another fun thing the models are showing is a PRE (Predecessor Rain Effect). This would be an additional inch or two of rain before the storm hits. The PRE is not consistent in all the models, and the location is also shifting from run to run.

 Thanks for mentioning this Max, this is a really important thing from a hydrology point of view.  A lot of research has gone into flood forecasting and found that one of the important variables in predicting flood intensity is antecedent soil conditions, specifically soil moisture.  If there's precip immediately before Isaias that causes soil to be saturated, it will greatly increase the amount of runoff into rivers and streams when the precip from Isaias hits.  


whoa. did you say we might see 3-6 inches of rain?

That's a **** ton!


Komarovsky said:

max_weisenfeld said:
Another fun thing the models are showing is a PRE (Predecessor Rain Effect). This would be an additional inch or two of rain before the storm hits. The PRE is not consistent in all the models, and the location is also shifting from run to run.

 Thanks for mentioning this Max, this is a really important thing from a hydrology point of view.  A lot of research has gone into flood forecasting and found that one of the important variables in predicting flood intensity is antecedent soil conditions, specifically soil moisture.  If there's precip immediately before Isaias that causes soil to be saturated, it will greatly increase the amount of runoff into rivers and streams when the precip from Isaias hits.  

 Yes, it's important.  On the other hand, there is capacity in all the dams and reservoirs so any flooding would be localized road and small stream, not river systems.


Oh, and there is a Heat Advisory (and a chance of thunderstorms) tomorrow, Sun Aug 2.

Almost forgot to mention that.


Thanks Max and Wxnut! 


Looks like a chance of strong thunderstorms today, with the more severe stuff after 4.  Possibly up to 60 mph winds.

Isaias looks like he's visiting for sure on Tuesday. 


Could it be more humid?

blech


Sun 8/2 update

Forecast remains on track with yesterday's analysis.

The models have come into closer agreement on timing and track, bringing Isaias through the area as a tropical storm during the day and evening tuesday. For the MAPSO area, Isaias remains a mostly rain event, with forecast 2 - 6 inches, 3 - 6 if we include the potential predecessor rain event Monday night.

For today, a heat advisory remains in effect because of the high humidity. There is a 50/50 chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.


Storm turned out to be almost nothing here in South Florida, just some squalls. We got lucky, hope the same for all of you up North!


Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service New York NY
332 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-030845-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.A.0002.200804T1000Z-200805T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Southern Queens-
332 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of northeast New Jersey and
  southeast New York, including the following areas, in
  northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern
  Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex,
  Western Passaic, and Western Union. In southeast New York,
  Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northern
  Queens, Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten
  Island), Rockland, Southern Queens, and Southern Westchester.

* From Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night

* Rain showers with embedded thunderstorms out ahead and with
  Tropical Storm Isaias will move into the region Tuesday into
  Tuesday night. A total of 2 to 4 inches of rain will be possible
  with locally higher amounts between 4 and 6 inches. Torrential
  downpours with multiple rounds of heavy showers will allow for
  excessive runoff and therefore would cause flash flooding in low
  lying, urban and poor drainage areas. Some smaller streams and
  rivers may exceed their banks.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$

Tropical Storm Watch

Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 23
National Weather Service New York NY  AL092020
600 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

NJZ105-031000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.TR.A.1009.200802T2200Z-000000T0000Z/
Western Essex-
600 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Orange
    - Caldwell
    - Millburn

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday afternoon
          until early Wednesday morning

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
      to 57 mph
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
          force.
        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
          underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
          over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
      flooding rain
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
          likely.
        - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
          if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
          rescues.
        - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in
          multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
          may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and
          barriers may become stressed.
        - In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down
          valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and
          mudslides.
        - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
          moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
          become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
          weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - https://www.essexsheriff.com
    - https://weather.gov/nyc
    - https://ready.gov/hurricanes

$


Tropical Storm Isaias, Monday Aug 3 Update

The MAPSO area is under a TROPICAL STORM WARNING and a FLASH FLOOD WATCH tomorrow, Tuesday Aug 4

There is good model consensus on a track that brings Isaias through our area Tuesday.

Key points:

Rain: NWS forecasts 2 - 4 inches with more in isolated rain bands. There is also a potential PRE rain event tonight although this looks limited to about 1/2 inch if it occurs. Total 24 hour rain forecast 2 - 6 inches.

Wind: The highest winds are more likely to be east of us over Long Island, but the potential does exist here for an extended period of 20 - 40 mph winds with some 50+ gusts on Tuesday afternoon and early evening. The good news is that Isaias is expected to pass relatively quickly, meaning that the worst winds could be limited in duration to 2 - 3 hours.

Flooding: Local flash flooding, road ponding and local field and stream only. The river should be able to handle this event.

Timing: Chance of heavy rain from the PRE event overnight Monday. Rain likely by mid morning Tuesday becomes heavy Tuesday afternoon and early evening, tapering off by midnight. Winds Tuesday afternoon and early evening.

Warnings in the comments below.


Hurricane Local Statement

Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 25
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-031815-

Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 25
National Weather Service New York NY  AL092020
611 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut

***TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST***

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Orange and Putnam
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Bronx, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern
      Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Kings (Brooklyn), New York
      (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern
      Queens, Northwestern Suffolk, Richmond (Staten Island),
      Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex,
      Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven, Southern New London,
      Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, Southwestern Suffolk,
      Western Bergen, Western Essex, and Western Union

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bronx, Eastern
      Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson,
      Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk,
      Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northwestern Suffolk,
      Richmond (Staten Island), Southeastern Suffolk, Southern
      Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New
      Haven, Southern New London, Southern Queens, Southern
      Westchester, Southwestern Suffolk, Western Bergen, Western
      Essex, and Western Union
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northern Fairfield,
      Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London,
      Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, and Western
      Passaic

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 830 miles south-southwest of New York City NY or about
      900 miles south-southwest of Montauk Point NY
    - 29.7N 79.9W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement North or 355 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Isaias, located off the north Florida coast,
will continue to move to the north this morning, turning
north-northeast this afternoon along the southeast coast. Isaias will
continue moving northeast tonight over Eastern North Carolina. Isaias
will slowly weaken as it accelerates northeast on Tuesday, likely moving
over our area Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is still some timing and
intensity uncertainty with this storm. However, confidence continues to
increase with respect to the magnitude of local hazards and impacts.

The main threats with this system involve heavy rainfall, strong winds,
minor to moderate coastal flooding, along with high surf and dangerous rip
currents.

Locally heavy rain is expected with a widespread 2 to 4 inches,
with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible. The heaviest rain is most
likely to occur across New York City, Northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson
Valley early Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening, and eastern sections Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. The strongest winds are likely to occur across Long
Island, coastal Connecticut, and the New York City Metro. Dangerous marine
conditions are likely across all of the coastal waters Tuesday and
Tuesday night. High surf and dangerous rip currents are expected along
the ocean beaches Monday through Wednesday.

The effects from Tropical Storm Isaias are expected to diminish
quickly from southwest to northeast across the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across northeastern New Jersey, New York City, and the
Lower Hudson Valley.
Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple
      places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down
      valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and
      mudslides.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern
Connecticut. Potential impacts include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across shoreline communities. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - There is potential for widespread minor to locally moderate coastal
      flooding across the Lower New York Harbor and South Shore Back Bays,
      with localized minor flooding impacts elsewhere.
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low lying spots.
    - Sections of near shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong and frequent rip
      currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern
Connecticut. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Make sure you are in
a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, Turn Around Don`t Drown!

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge prone area, you could find
yourself cut off by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by local authorities.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high winds, such as near large
trees, a mobile home, upper floors of a high rise building, or on a
boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong
winds or flooding.

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

Closely monitor http://weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news
outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible
changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive
weather warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see http://ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see
http://getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see
http://redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in New York NY around 12 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$

Tropical Storm Warning

Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 25
National Weather Service New York NY  AL092020
520 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NJZ105-031730-
/O.NEW.KOKX.TR.W.1009.200803T0920Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Western Essex-
520 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Orange
    - Caldwell
    - Millburn

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 65 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday morning
          until Tuesday evening

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
      to 73 mph
        - The wind threat has increased from the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
          storm force.
        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
          should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
          significant wind damage.
        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
          damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
          buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
          failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
          Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
        - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
          numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
          fences and roadway signs blown over.
        - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
          urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
          and access routes impassable.
        - Scattered power and communications outages, but more
          prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
      flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
          likely.
        - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
          if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
          rescues.
        - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in
          multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
          may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and
          barriers may become stressed.
        - In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down
          valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and
          mudslides.
        - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
          moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
          become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
          weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - https://www.essexsheriff.com
    - https://weather.gov/nyc
    - https://ready.gov/hurricanes

$

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service New York NY
347 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-032200-
/O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0002.200804T1000Z-200805T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Southern Queens-
347 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York,
  including the following areas, in northeast New Jersey,
  Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union,
  Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and
  Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn),
  New York (Manhattan), Northern Queens, Northern Westchester,
  Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southern
  Queens, and Southern Westchester.

* From Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night

* Rain showers with embedded thunderstorms out ahead and with
  Tropical Storm Isaias will move into the region Tuesday into
  Tuesday night. A total of 2 to 4 inches of rain will be
  possible with locally higher amounts between 4 and 6 inches.
  Torrential downpours with multiple rounds of heavy showers
  will allow for excessive runoff and therefore would cause
  flash flooding in low lying, urban and poor drainage areas.
  Some smaller streams and rivers may exceed their banks.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$




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