Big Rainstorm (was Tropical Storm) (was Major Hurricane) Ida

HURRICANE IDA will be making landfall shortly in Louisiana, at or near cat 4 strength.

Remnants of the storm are likely to arrive in New Jersey Thursday as rain, with 1 - 4 additional inches possible. High winds are NOT expected to be an issue for us with this system.



max_weisenfeld said:

HURRICANE IDA will be making landfall shortly in Louisiana, at or near cat 4 strength.

Remnants of the storm are likely to arrive in New Jersey Thursday as rain, with 1 - 4 additional inches possible. High winds are NOT expected to be an issue for us with this system.

 I wonder how fast I can build a cistern.


There is zero chance this wasn’t a cat 5 a few hours back. Probably isn’t now as it undergoes a well-timed eyewall replacement. It is undoubtedly a high-end cat 4 though. 


Official landfall occurred at 11:55am local time as a top-end cat 4 with sustained wind of 150mph. 


I know what it’s like around here with gusts of say 30 or 40 mph. I cannot begin to imagine 150.


I heard something interesting on the TV. They said the surface temperature of the gulf was around 90 degrees, which is bad enough, but 150 feet down the temp was still in the 80's, which is still very warm. Normally the warm water doesn't go down that deep, and when the hurricane passes over, it churns the water, bringing cooler water to the surface, and kind of tempering the strength of the storm. In Ida's case, no such tempering is occurring.

Does that make sense, weather guys?


drummerboy said:

I heard something interesting on the TV. They said the surface temperature of the gulf was around 90 degrees, which is bad enough, but 150 feet down the temp was still in the 80's, which is still very warm. Normally the warm water doesn't go down that deep, and when the hurricane passes over, it churns the water, bringing cooler water to the surface, and kind of tempering the strength of the storm. In Ida's case, no such tempering is occurring.

Does that make sense, weather guys?

Sounds about right — the storm is moving too fast to bring a lot of the cooler water to the surface. If it were moving slower it would more likely churn the water up more. 


In what is perhaps the most interesting meteorological phenomenon you’ll see, the storm is not weakening over what is technically considered land. This is because that “land” is largely swamp/marshland and there is enough warm water in that swamp to keep it going. This is called the “brown ocean effect”.


Tropical Storm Ida update for Mon 8/30

TS Ida is likely to bring heavy rain Wed and Thurs to the MAPSO area. The models are in good agreement that the storm will follow a frontal boundary to our south. Rain should arrive Wed during the day, gradually increasing in intensity as the storm starts picking up warm wet air from the Atlantic. Our likely position to the north of the track (technically, Ida should be a post-tropical depression by Wed) puts us in the wettest area, and 2 - 4" of rain between Wed and Thurs is possible, with more rain where thunderstorms develop locally. The wind will pick up a bit as the rain begins to end on Thurs but here only reach gusts in the 20 - 25mph range.


Heynj said:

I know what it’s like around here with gusts of say 30 or 40 mph. I cannot begin to imagine 150.

 Believe me, you don't want to. Survived Camille. Should have driven north!


max_weisenfeld said:

Tropical Storm Ida update for Mon 8/30

TS Ida is likely to bring heavy rain Wed and Thurs to the MAPSO area. The models are in good agreement that the storm will follow a frontal boundary to our south. Rain should arrive Wed during the day, gradually increasing in intensity as the storm starts picking up warm wet air from the Atlantic. Our likely position to the north of the track (technically, Ida should be a post-tropical depression by Wed) puts us in the wettest area, and 2 - 4" of rain between Wed and Thurs is possible, with more rain where thunderstorms develop locally. The wind will pick up a bit as the rain begins to end on Thurs but here only reach gusts in the 20 - 25mph range.

 Thanks, Max!


drummerboy said:

looks like we're within spitting distance of a rainfall record.

https://www.nj.com/weather/2021/08/nj-weather-heres-where-our-rain-soaked-summer-ranks-so-far.html

 Except it will be September when Ida hits. That graphic says it only counts June, July and August...


KarenMarlowe said:

drummerboy said:

looks like we're within spitting distance of a rainfall record.

https://www.nj.com/weather/2021/08/nj-weather-heres-where-our-rain-soaked-summer-ranks-so-far.html

 Except it will be September when Ida hits. That graphic says it only counts June, July and August...

 party pooper


There are storms in the area this evening.  Some may result in heavy downpours.


Tuesday Ida Update 8/31

Key takeaway, it's going to be a pretty wet couple of days.

Showers will begin overspreading the area after midnight tonight. Rain likely becomes steady around midday Wednesday, becoming heavier as the day goes on. Heavy rain likely Wed night into Thurs, tapering off Thurs morning.

Total rainfall, 3 - 5", possibly more if thunderstorms develop. Severe thunderstorms are not likely with this system.

Because of the heavy rain and the generally wet conditions, the NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for the entire region from Wed afternoon through Thurs. Be careful if you are out on the roads.

Wind Thurs steady 10 - 15 mph with 25 mph gusts possible. Wind is not a major issue with this system.


This could be an *exceptionally* heavy rain event for this area.


WxNut2.0 said:

This could be an *exceptionally* heavy rain event for this area.

 Can you elaborate?  Irene was exceptionally heavy.  Last week was heavy.


tjohn said:

WxNut2.0 said:

This could be an *exceptionally* heavy rain event for this area.

 Can you elaborate?  Irene was exceptionally heavy.  Last week was heavy.

 There is growing upside potential to the rain forecast, and six inches is not out of the question.  There could be more if some of the more outlying model elements verified, but I think over 6 is much less likely except in very isolated areas because of the lack of major instability (that is, I think severe thunderstorms are unlikely).


max_weisenfeld said:

tjohn said:

WxNut2.0 said:

This could be an *exceptionally* heavy rain event for this area.

 Can you elaborate?  Irene was exceptionally heavy.  Last week was heavy.

 There is growing upside potential to the rain forecast, and six inches is not out of the question.  There could be more if some of the more outlying model elements verified, but I think over 6 is much less likely except in very isolated areas because of the lack of major instability (that is, I think severe thunderstorms are unlikely).

 This won’t be an event driven by thermodynamic instability. That said, while I agree it’s not necessarily likely, there’s extremely high end rain potential here. Even beyond six inches. Probably about a 20% chance.


where are those damn galoshes?


WPC has issued an extremely rare day two high risk for excessive rainfall for our area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml


what does "day two" mean?


drummerboy said:

what does "day two" mean?

 Tomorrow


Some additional context


drummerboy said:

where are those damn galoshes?

 I put on my rainboots to clear the storm drains during Henri. I thought I'd be okay without socks. The boots stuck to my feet. I had to get my husband to help get them off and even then it took about 20 minutes.  oh oh Learned a good lesson there...


Rain will start to overspread the area in the early morning hours of tonight (Wednesday morning). Rain likely throughout the day Wednesday, becoming heavy in the late afternoon or early evening. Heavy rain then for several hours, with some elements of the models showing the potential for rainfall between 1 and 2 inches per hour for periods Wednesday night. Rain should end by mid-morning Thursday.

Total rainfall is likely to be 3 – 6 inches, which on top of already saturated ground raises a significant risk of flash flooding. The NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch, and if the forecast trends towards the higher end this may be upgraded to a Warning in some parts of the area. The Weather Prediction Center, a sister agency to the NWS that specializes in risk assessment, has the area at a High Risk for flash flooding Thursday (see risk graphic that WxNut posted above).


Livingston Shoprite was a freaking zoo just now. Haven't seen it so crowded since the bad pandemic days. I bailed out.


Weird because we went to Millburn Shoprite in the a.m. to pick up a few things (not freakout storm shopping), and in the afternoon to TJs and neither was crazy. 


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