Help Me Understand Brexit/UK Mess

PVW said:
 One of the ways Brexit's been playing out is to put renewed attention on what, exactly, the nature of the union at the heart of the United Kingdom really is. You can see it in increased prominence of the English St. George's Cross flags. You can see it in the actions of the SNP (Scottish Nationalist Party). You can, perhaps most acutely, see it in the weird dynamic between May and the DUP (Democratic Unionist Party -- Northern Ireland), and of course the way the question of the Irish border is in so many ways at the base of the Brexit impasse. 

I was talking about legally (and also for purposes of FIFA).  I don't disagree that Breixit has exacerbated the tensions and encouraged both Irish and Scottish nationalists.  

Maybe the Welsh, as well, but nobody understands what they're saying.   smile 


So - can anyone update us on the latest.  Will brexit proceed on 1/31 with Boris in charge?  Any other options on the table - or is it a done deal at the moment?

Sounds like an agreement was made with the EU, but it still needs to go through parliament.


jamie said:

So - can anyone update us on the latest.  Will brexit proceed on 1/31 with Boris in charge?  Any other options on the table - or is it a done deal at the moment?

Sounds like an agreement was made with the EU, but it still needs to go through parliament.

"The Conservative party landslide gives Boris Johnson a decisive mandate on Brexit, with a solid majority that means he will be able to push through Brexit on his terms.

While the prime minister has promised to go for a hard Canada-style deal, a pivot to a softer Brexit cannot be discounted now that he has room to manoeuvre thanks to the scale of his victory."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/13/brexit-what-the-tories-landslide-victory-means

Explanation of the hard Canada-style deal: 

https://www.theweek.co.uk/brexit/90320/what-is-a-canada-style-brexit

btw - The European and U.K. markets, as well as the British pound, were up today. 


I can't say I'm too surprised. Brexit is clearly the driving issue there right now, and Johnson offered a clear position, while Corbyn offered some kind of "maybe we can still have a Brexit, but a more left-leaning one, but also there'll be a referendum so maybe we won't." So the choice was Brexit or... Remainexit? Not exactly a clear counter-position.


British politics really DOES look like a Monty Python skit.


There were technically two Lord Buckethead's standing against Boris Johnson yesterday. The one we know from the 2017 election, who stood against Theresa May changed his name to Count Binface (Independent) due to copyright reasons. Then another guy, an American, ran as Lord Buckethead for The Official Monster Raving Loony Party. In a true show of British politics, the American Lord Buckethead picked up almost twice as many votes as Count Binface.


Another story about the British election... St Ives in Cornwall had to move their ballot count this morning to a different location, as the hall they were using had already been booked for badminton at noon.


ridski said:

Another story about the British election... St Ives in Cornwall had to move their ballot count this morning to a different location, as the hall they were using had already been booked for badminton at noon.

 ah, the Brits are so quaint...


After listening to a day of interviews from people across the UK, labour’s loss is nearly entirely down to people’s dislike of Jeremy Corbyn.


ridski said:

After listening to a day of interviews from people across the UK, labour’s loss is nearly entirely down to people’s dislike of Jeremy Corbyn.

hope it works out better for the UK than it's worked out here thanks to the people who hated Hillary Clinton


ml1 said:

ridski said:

After listening to a day of interviews from people across the UK, labour’s loss is nearly entirely down to people’s dislike of Jeremy Corbyn.

hope it works out better for the UK than it's worked out here thanks to the people who hated Hillary Clinton

 It won't. Johnson's policies are worse for the vulnerable and disabled, contradictory on the details for leaving the EU (which is why, if they have left in 12 months, it'll be a miracle), and the details of immigration/citizenship resulting from the mess surrounding the EU & Commonwealth redefinitions will still take years. 

Further, there were major issues around people finding out they couldn't vote when they should've been able to, so the 'real' result might have been a bit different. (Corbyn was always going to be a major obstacle though)

I'm just waiting for Adam Hills' beard to go cheese (Brexit joke)


joanne said:

ml1 said:

ridski said:

After listening to a day of interviews from people across the UK, labour’s loss is nearly entirely down to people’s dislike of Jeremy Corbyn.

hope it works out better for the UK than it's worked out here thanks to the people who hated Hillary Clinton

 It won't. Johnson's policies are worse for the vulnerable and disabled, contradictory on the details for leaving the EU (which is why, if they have left in 12 months, it'll be a miracle), and the details of immigration/citizenship resulting from the mess surrounding the EU & Commonwealth redefinitions will still take years. 

Further, there were major issues around people finding out they couldn't vote when they should've been able to, so the 'real' result might have been a bit different. (Corbyn was always going to be a major obstacle though)

I'm just waiting for Adam Hills' beard to go
cheese
(Brexit joke)

Corbyn was the problem.

He was untrustworthy and shallow while building his personality cult.

When he went for the leadership he promised he'd listen to the people in the party, put them first, not the party mandarins.

Most, about 2/3, Labor members were against Brexit as was his deputy Tom Watson. But  whenever there was a grass roots push Corbyn suppressed it with "I know better." He also helped to do Watson in because of Watson's support for remain. He created a leadership clique that caused much grass root disaffection by not being in touch with them.

So much for the "Oh Jeremy Corbin" song that he so enjoyed.                                                                                                           


I'm now convinced there will be no UK in 10 years. Scotland and Northern Ireland will have their own Scotchexit and Irexit. 


ml1 said:

I'm now convinced there will be no UK in 10 years. Scotland and Northern Ireland will have their own Scotchexit and Irexit. 

 There will still be a UK if Wales doesn't leave. 


cramer said:

ml1 said:

I'm now convinced there will be no UK in 10 years. Scotland and Northern Ireland will have their own Scotchexit and Irexit. 

 There will still be a UK if Wales doesn't leave. 

 Don’t forget Cornwall and the Channel Islands cheese They each have their own language, and, way back, had their own Chieftains and royal houses  until deciding to go with the ‘greater might’ of what we think of as the English royals. 


BG9, have you heard/read the about the numbers of overseas voters who didn’t receive their kits in time??? My neighbours fit into that category - 4 households in this one street. One household includes a Scots voter; all are passionate about voting and have never missed a vote in their lives before. 
And then the numbers of voters who suddenly, because of mixups created because of Windrush and other Commonwealth/European permanent residents, found they’re now off the electoral rolls even though they voted in the previous elections this year??

Not to mention the local postal voters who encountered problems proving they were entitled to vote and their ballots didn’t arrive either?? As D said when I read that out to him, we have so many procedures in place to cover all such eventualities, but the UK polling assistants were overwhelmed. 
This isn’t even gerrymandering, or an unofficial/official policy. It’s rushed, sloppy thinking. But the consequence is that thousands of voters probably missed out, and no-one knows what effect they would have had. 
Corbyn is poison, yes, but there are more issues in this story that are making voters furious. 


ml1 said:

I'm now convinced there will be no UK in 10 years. Scotland and Northern Ireland will have their own Scotchexit and Irexit. 

If they're given the option. When the UK allowed the Scottish referendum they were pretty sure of winning, that is getting the voters to remain in the UK. Part of this was promising Scotland additional revenue and allowing more "home" rule. They also told the Scots that they would owe tons of money because of facilities that belong to the UK.

Due to austerity many of the promises were not kept.

Now, the Scottish people will likely vote to leave but the UK parliament will not give them a referendum. The Scots were told that their referendum was a once in a generation opportunity.


joanne said:

BG9, have you heard/read the about the numbers of overseas voters who didn’t receive their kits in time??? 

But that would not have made a difference. There were major shifts from Labor to Conservative in many constituencies and with some loss to Liberal Democrats.

One problem is antisemitism in the Labor party. Corbyn did not confront it. It seems Labor leadership actually encouraged it when they dismissed reports of it and then punished those  who spoke against it. Why did Corbyn not confront it?  Is he antisemitic? Did he play the identity politics game of trying to up the Muslim antisemitic vote for Labor? Or is he just plain stupid?

Then there was the problem of the split vote. Labor waffled on Brexit, the most important question in the last 50 years. No one knew where they stood. So Labor leavers said, screw it, we're voting conservative. Whereas some Labor remainders voted Liberal Democrat. Even though the Liberal Democrats lost parliamentary seats, their total vote count did go up by 50%, many from Labor.


ridski said:

After listening to a day of interviews from people across the UK, labour’s loss is nearly entirely down to people’s dislike of Jeremy Corbyn.

"The Observer’s pollsters Opinium have revealed their own analysis of the reasons people rejected Labour: 43% cited the leadership, 17% its policy on Brexit, and 12% its economic policies. Among Labour defectors – those who voted Labour in 2017 but didn’t this time – 37% mentioned the leadership, 21% Brexit and 6% its economic policies."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/14/i-saw-just-how-many-voters-were-hostile-to-jeremy-corbyn


BG9 said:

ml1 said:

I'm now convinced there will be no UK in 10 years. Scotland and Northern Ireland will have their own Scotchexit and Irexit. 

If they're given the option. When the UK allowed the Scottish referendum they were pretty sure of winning, that is getting the voters to remain in the UK. Part of this was promising Scotland additional revenue and allowing more "home" rule. They also told the Scots that they would owe tons of money because of facilities that belong to the UK.

Due to austerity many of the promises were not kept.

Now, the Scottish people will likely vote to leave but the UK parliament will not give them a referendum. The Scots were told that their referendum was a once in a generation opportunity.

 What if they just decide to leave, like declare their independence? What result?

In the Basque area of Spain I asked a tour guide if it was the Basque flag flying from an apartment balcony. She told me it was the Catalan flag being flown in solidarity. 

When people turn to Nationalism they turn to Nationalism.


BG9 said:


Now, the Scottish people will likely vote to leave but the UK parliament will not give them a referendum. The Scots were told that their referendum was a once in a generation opportunity.

In an homage to Catalonia, they may just go ahead a hold a referendum anyway.

...

The Scottish National Party’s success immediately intensified the debate over independence for Scotland, which voted against Brexit and has largely rejected Britain’s major parties.

Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the party and the Scottish government, said on Friday that in the next week her administration would publish its plan for holding an independence referendum, which the Conservatives oppose. In a 2014 referendum, 45 percent of Scottish voters backed independence.“

Scotland has rejected Boris Johnson and the Tories. and yet again we have said no to Brexit,” she said at a news conference.

“I accept, regretfully, that he has a mandate for Brexit in England,” she added. “But he has no mandate whatsoever to take Scotland out of the European Union.”

A referendum held by Scotland, but not recognized by the government in London, would raise the prospect of the kind of anger and disarray plaguing Spain. There, the government of Catalonia held an independence referendum

(NYT)


BG9, what I'm saying is that they're 2 different issues. 

Corbin lost it, yes. No argument. 

But you're not recognising that despite that, in some places every single shade of vote actually counts in this 'landslide'. Further, the anger of those denied voters is massive and is something that will muddy all the hazy plans of the newly elected born-to-rule idiots. They'll probably need yet another election within another 12 months. 

Perhaps the difference is having worked as an electoral commission worker, tallying ballots (by hand), similarly to the UK system and actually being in a couple of seats where the difference  was just a couple of hundred. That's legal challenge territory, triple-checking each mark on every piece of paper and then doing it again in Court. 

So if 2000 postals suddenly turn up, a seat can change hands. And if another 600-1200 should have voted, and that seat is marginal or seen as a trend-setter for some demographic patterns, well, you work the mess out. 


nohero said:

PVW said:
 One of the ways Brexit's been playing out is to put renewed attention on what, exactly, the nature of the union at the heart of the United Kingdom really is. You can see it in increased prominence of the English St. George's Cross flags. You can see it in the actions of the SNP (Scottish Nationalist Party). You can, perhaps most acutely, see it in the weird dynamic between May and the DUP (Democratic Unionist Party -- Northern Ireland), and of course the way the question of the Irish border is in so many ways at the base of the Brexit impasse. 

I was talking about legally (and also for purposes of FIFA).  I don't disagree that Breixit has exacerbated the tensions and encouraged both Irish and Scottish nationalists.  

Maybe the Welsh, as well, but nobody understands what they're saying.   
smile
 

 https://www.bl.uk/collection-items/gower-dialect-mrs-b-cockle-picking

Closed captioning was invented to watch movies where there are Welsh characters. We lived in London many years ago and had a Welsh nanny. Never understood a word she said the entire time (not really - I loved her lilt.) 


So many anecdotes from Labor MP's who lost their jobs. They're consistent its Corbyn's fault. 

One Labor MP said she went house to house and it so disheartening, in one case four in a row, when she was told "we love you dear but we're not going to vote Corbyn in."

Another:

“If you are on the doorstep and one person mentions Brexit, but five people mention the leader of the Labour party for being the reason they are not going to vote for you, then things need to change. I believe that the leader of the Labour party should not be resigning today, he should have resigned a long time ago.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/15/blair-old-seat-sedgefield-rejected-corbyn-perceived-unpatriotic


BG9 said:

So many anecdotes from Labor MP's who lost their jobs. They're consistent its Corbyn's fault. 

One Labor MP said she went house to house and it so disheartening, in one case four in a row, when she was told "we love you dear but we're not going to vote Corbyn in."

Another:

“If you are on the doorstep and one person mentions Brexit, but five people mention the leader of the Labour party for being the reason they are not going to vote for you, then things need to change. I believe that the leader of the Labour party should not be resigning today, he should have resigned a long time ago.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/15/blair-old-seat-sedgefield-rejected-corbyn-perceived-unpatriotic

The Guardian article quotes Alan Johnson, former Labour MP and Home Secretary, as saying "Corbyn was disaster on the doorstep" and calls Momentum a cult and unless Momentum is ditched Labour becomes a cult as well. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dme8AwpThAc


It's difficult for us to filter some of the comments on Corbyn's loss because we don't know a lot of the people involved and where they stand.  I have been reading some and think the loss was due to Brexit and the mainstream media intense smearing of Corbyn (which was covered in my Integrity Initiative MOL thread in the Alternative Media section). Evidently, after the loss, the MSM was pushing hard to blame it on Corbyn personally without acknowledging their own part to play.

https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1206153478890041349


In this country the day after election day is the first day of the next election campaign. Is the same true in the UK  or is it not because there are no "mid-terms" there?


STANV said:

In this country the day after election day is the first day of the next election campaign. Is the same true in the UK  or is it not because there are no "mid-terms" there?

 It's always about the next election.

“The party’s top priority must be to win support in towns and small cities in Wales, the north and the Midlands. There is no other route to winning back power. The party must choose its new leadership wisely, by asking who can earn the trust of potential voters in these areas, while not alienating existing supporters in big cities.”

"Other MPs said it was necessary not to blame solely the leadership or Brexit but to acknowledge that the party’s hold over its northern heartlands had been weakening for some time.

Louise Haigh, a shadow minister, said: “We have to be honest about how we got here. The leadership was of course a factor, but so too were the years of bitter infighting and the party’s neglect, both perceived and real, of areas of the UK over many years.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/15/labour-leadership-race-begins-as-senior-figures-back-rebecca-long-bailey

To underscore the above, Boris Johnson's first trip after he was elected was to the north. 

"Boris Johnson will travel to the north of England on Saturday after securing his party's biggest election win since the 1987.

The prime minister secured an 80-seat majority with many of his gains coming in traditional Labour heartlands in the North and the Midlands.

Some areas, such as Bishop Auckland in the North East, had never elected a Tory MP before Thursday.

Other seats, like Bolsover, Sedgefield and Great Grimsby, had been held by Labour for decades."

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-12-14/pm-to-visit-newly-elected-mps-in-election-victory-tour/


I think this gets to the heart of the matter


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