Are we close to a China trade deal or . . .

is this market manipulation?  We've seen this movie before.  Talks break down - markets take a hit.  Then an announcement comes out saying a deal is close - market responds.  Seems like if people saw this pattern early enough - $ could be made.  Or am I completely wrong?


jamie said:

is this market manipulation?  We've seen this movie before.  Talks break down - markets take a hit.  Then an announcement comes out saying a deal is close - market responds.  Seems like if people saw this pattern early enough - $ could be made.  Or am I completely wrong?

 Could be.  Does Trump have these guys buying and selling on the trading floor?


Looks like we may find something out today:

The good times started rolling last night, when U.S. President Donald Trump said talks were going very well. The rally continued as reports started to emerge about what a deal might look like. Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at 2:45 p.m. today.

That in itself might be good news. “President Trump is scheduled to meet with Vice-Premier Liu on Friday (October 11),” writes Merrill Lynch’s Ethan Harris. “This is a positive because the meeting would presumably not occur if there is nothing positive to announce.”

Just don’t expect it to be an overarching pact that ends the trade war once and for all. “If we had a dollar every time we heard ‘things are going very well with China’ we’d all have a lot more money over the past few years but hopefully these discussions lead to something real and substantive,” writes Bleakley Advisory Group’s Peter Boockvar.



As I mentioned elsewhere, now that T has missed out on the Nobel for Peace, I think he's going to be more erratic and vengeful. That's never good for policy,  or the markets, regardless of the plans were. 

I think everything's going to be unstable and very unpredictable for at least a week or two, which will seem like 6 months.


I'd love to know who Trump calls the night before he makes these decisions. Who he inadvertently tips off.

Interesting to see Hannity and Bannon's portfolio.


The market futures are down in reaction to the news that China wants more talks (surprise, surprise) before singing Trump's "Phase One" deal. China has not confirmed the elements of the deal outlined by Trump and supposedly wants Trump to scrap the planned tariff hike in December in addition to the tariff hike scheduled this week. 


jamie said:

is this market manipulation?  We've seen this movie before.  Talks break down - markets take a hit.  Then an announcement comes out saying a deal is close - market responds.  Seems like if people saw this pattern early enough - $ could be made.  Or am I completely wrong?

 Mr. Ross starts this thread a week ago, and yesterday this article comes out -

“There Is Definite Hanky-Panky Going On”: The Fantastically Profitable Mystery of the Trump Chaos Trades

Three days earlier, in the last 10 minutes of trading, someone bought 82,000 S&P e-minis when the index was trading at 2969. That was nearly 4 a.m. on September 11 in Beijing, where a few hours later, the Chinese government announced that it would lift tariffs on a range of American-made products. As has been the typical reaction in the U.S. stock markets as the trade war with China chugs on without any perceptible logic, when the news about a potential resolution of it seems positive, stock markets go up, and when the news about the trade war appears negative, they go down.

There's a lot more.

Did Mr. J. Ross have some "insider information" about this article? cheese


Trumps said talks were progressing - yet Hang Seng down almost 3%.

Monday was also the first opportunity that markets in Asia had to respond to comments from US President Donald Trump, who said Friday in the United States that he has yet to agree to wiping tariffs. That undercut a statement from China's Commerce Ministry that indicated openness to such a concession as part of the first phase of a trade deal between the two countries."They'd like to have a rollback," Trump said. "I haven't agreed to anything. China would like to get somewhat of a rollback, not a complete rollback because they know I won't do it."
    A day earlier, a spokesman for China's Ministry of Commerce told reporters that US and Chinese negotiators had discussed rolling back tariffs, saying the rollbacks could happen even before a "phase one" trade deal is signed.Despite Trump's remarks, Wall Street ended last week at record highs.

    Morganna said:

    I'd love to know who Trump calls the night before he makes these decisions. Who he inadvertently tips off.

    Interesting to see Hannity and Bannon's portfolio.

     I'd like to think the SEC would sniff this out fairly quickly.


    I read a report the other day that China knows how this type of news makes the markets bounce up and down.  So, they'll dangle hints about a trade deal, then walk back, just to cause anxiety in the U.S.


    dave said:

     I'd like to think the SEC would sniff this out fairly quickly.

     They are definitely suspicious of some activity that's gone on, but no proof of anything.

    “THERE IS DEFINITE HANKY-PANKY GOING ON”: THE FANTASTICALLY PROFITABLE MYSTERY OF THE TRUMP CHAOS TRADES


    dave said:

    Morganna said:

    I'd love to know who Trump calls the night before he makes these decisions. Who he inadvertently tips off.

    Interesting to see Hannity and Bannon's portfolio.

     I'd like to think the SEC would sniff this out fairly quickly.

     Not today's SEC.


    There are definitely people getting rich off of Trump's political maneuvers.  The question is whether it is coordinated in some way or not.


    drummerboy said:

    dave said:

    Morganna said:

    I'd love to know who Trump calls the night before he makes these decisions. Who he inadvertently tips off.

    Interesting to see Hannity and Bannon's portfolio.

     I'd like to think the SEC would sniff this out fairly quickly.

     Not today's SEC.

    It's other traders who would catch and report mysterious trades (and get a 10-30% reward).  The SEC must follow up on reports.


    dave said:

    It's other traders who would catch and report mysterious trades (and get a 10-30% reward).  The SEC must follow up on reports.

    there's a difference between "following up" and "punishing". The SEC is not much in the punishing business these days.


    The only China deal we’ll see any time soon is With Six You Get Eggroll. 



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