Winter Weather Advisory Monday 2/22 for 2" - 4" of !@#$%&* Snow

We're lucky we're not in Texas - we have a friend whose house temp is 48 inside and no power.  And will still be pretty cold for a few more days.  I'm just waiting for people to use this as proof that there's no global warming.


Similar issue with a friend in Austin and she grew up in the northeast.


wendyn said:

Do we know yet when the snow might start on Thursday or are we too far out?  I am apparently incompetent on all of the weather sites.

 Right now the consensus is mid-morning but there is still a bit of a spread in the models


drummerboy said:

Taking the long term view, I'll worry about Thursday now.

 I'll worry along with you. I'm scheduled for my second vaccine shot on Thursday. 

eta-  Getting ready to ask how the S-curves are. 


Today was gorgeous though. I'll take it.


cramer said:

drummerboy said:

Taking the long term view, I'll worry about Thursday now.

 I'll worry along with you. I'm scheduled for my second vaccine shot on Thursday. 

eta-  Getting ready to ask how the S-curves are. 

 This really doesn't look like a super impactful event (right now). 


WxNut2.0 said:

cramer said:

drummerboy said:

Taking the long term view, I'll worry about Thursday now.

 I'll worry along with you. I'm scheduled for my second vaccine shot on Thursday. 

eta-  Getting ready to ask how the S-curves are. 

 This really doesn't look like a super impactful event (right now). 

Thank you.  


We just purchased new snow shovels so that should lower the odds of another significant snow fall.


EBennett said:

We just purchased new snow shovels so that should lower the odds of another significant snow fall.

 How about putting tire chains on for the cause? 

eta - I grew up in western Pa. We (or I should say my parents,)  used tire chains. We never had snow days. 


Looks like 6 inches of snow for our area. After all the salt has been washed away with the rain last night, it might be impactful. 


CBS just forecast 4 - 8 inches with more possible due to the duration of the storm.


Starting to think this could be around 6-8 inches, though still not sold. This is a very different type of storm than the kind that dropped 18 inches a couple of weeks back and largest totals will be highly dependent on smallish-scale processes like the position of heavier bands. That makes these types of storm a nightmare to forecast and will likely result in some pretty big forecast snow total ranges. I could see this anywhere from 3-8 inches, but I'm starting to lean toward the higher end.


I'm worried about all the melted snow from today turning into ice overnight.


Jamie,

I can personally testify that 48 doesn’t sound unbearably cold in a house, surrounded by walls and blankets and drinking hot tea, but it is. After Sandy, it was at 48 in my living room that I bailed to a sibling’s home where the family still had power. When you are chilled like that for a day or two, it then takes a couple of days before you truly feel comfortable again. (I would not have done well in the olden days...)


First make sure you read what WxNut posted just above.

My take is similar (remember he's the pro, though):

The National Weather Service has posted a Winter Storm Watch for the area for Thursday and Thursday night for snow. 3 - 6 inches are possible and there is a high end of almost a foot, with a changeover to sleet or rain by the morning Friday.

This is a complex system and we are still getting some fairly divergent solutions from the models, so I am going to leave off the more extensive analysis for the morning. The bottom line though is to expect enough snow Thursday to impact travel all day and be prepared for it to perhaps be something more than that.

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
342 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
170445-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0003.210218T1100Z-210219T1100Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
342 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

drummerboy said:

I'm worried about all the melted snow from today turning into ice overnight.

 Watch out for black ice in the morning and be prepared for the fact that any snow remaining in your driveway is going to be immovable.


max_weisenfeld said:

drummerboy said:

I'm worried about all the melted snow from today turning into ice overnight.

 Watch out for black ice in the morning and be prepared for the fact that any snow remaining in your driveway is going to be immovable.

Yeah, I'm not planning on leaving the apartment for the next two days. The walkways around my apartment will probably be skating rinks.


max_weisenfeld said:

 Watch out for black ice in the morning and be prepared for the fact that any snow remaining in your driveway is going to be immovable.

It's times like these after a snowfall that doesn't disappear that you need to go to one of those flat blade garden (transfer shovel) shovels to chop from above and then pry up from the pavement. Or even use one of those flat-bladed ice choppers as shown here. Combine with snow-melt and sunshine and there's at least a chance. Besides, they come in handy year-round. If you have one with a shorter handle it might even be a good idea to carry it in your car if you ever need to go on streets that don't usually get plowed until the bigger streets are taken care of.

https://www.homedepot.com/s/ice%2520chopper?NCNI-5

That said, the local HD was (and probably any other place that carries them) all out of those shovels and ice choppers last week. Maybe they have resupplied. The regular snow shovels, even those with a metal edge just aren't up to breaking the stuff that has undergone a few freeze-thaw cycles.


bikefixed said:


It's times like these after a snowfall that doesn't disappear that you need to go to one of those flat blade garden (transfer shovel) shovels to chop from above and then pry up from the pavement.

 You mean a spade? Yeah, I use that when stuff gets serious.


Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
318 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
172100-
/O.EXT.KOKX.WS.A.0003.210218T1100Z-210219T2100Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
318 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$

As of Wednesday morning, 2/17, the NWS has extended the Winter Storm Watch to include Friday morning as well as all day Thursday.


TL/DR: We are expecting a long period of light to moderate snow starting Thursday morning, possibly as early as 6 or 7am. Possible heavy snow Thursday midday and afternoon. Snow continues light to moderate Thursday night and possibly Friday morning. Possible changeover to sleet near the end of the precipitation. Temperatures below freezing throughout the period, rising into the high 30s Friday after the snow ends.

Total snow for the 36 hour period 6" - 8" with a high end of 8" - 10" possible but not likely. Changeover to sleet Friday for more than a short period could lower totals.

Details: The models are coming into better consensus around a winter storm on Thursday all day and most of the night, and quite possibly extending into Friday morning. Although the exact track of the system is still open to revision, in general the models are indicating a track that keeps the bulk of the area cold, and therefore keeps the precipitation as mostly snow. If there is a changeover, we would most likely expect sleet, and an ice storm is quite unlikely.

The storm is complex, consisting of a series of low pressure systems moving through, and while the overall picture is getting clearer, there are still some important details still evolving. Probably the most impactful would be whether there will be a 'front-end thump,' that is, a heavy snowfall over a shorter period at the beginning of the storm. If this happens (I am leaning towards cautiously expecting this) it means a period of heavier snowfall Thursday midday or afternoon. Without a dump, expect snow accumulation to be on the lower end of the range. It is also unclear at this time whether there will be a changeover to sleet on Friday.

The main energy of the system is the storm that is over eastern Texas this morning, moving through Louisiana and then up the mountains and exiting into the Atlantic south of us.

Another note on NWS alerts. I mentioned earlier that there are specific criteria for NWS Advisory/Watch/Warning, with advisory the lowest level and warning the highest. These criteria vary by region, as the amount of snow that would cause disruption (using snow as the example) differs between, say, Texas and Vermont. The NWS is pointing out this morning that the Warning criteria for our region is 6+" in 12 hours or 8+" in 24 hours. This means that this storm may escape triggering a warning and yet still drop 8" on us if it take 36 hours to do so. I take this comment to be a pointer to how seriously they are taking this storm.


drummerboy said:

 You mean a spade? Yeah, I use that when stuff gets serious.

 Yup! Break it up with that and then follow up with the regular shovel to heave it aside. That small one with the handle is great for digging out stuck cars.


How about a flame-thrower?


max_weisenfeld said:

Snow warning criteria

 Is it going to be all snow? I think this is another one of those complex storms that might throw everything at us. It might be safe not to drive tomorrow. 


As (un)luck would have it, I've got a dentist appt at 8AM tomorrow. Hopefully before the snow starts.

Jaytee said:

max_weisenfeld said:

Snow warning criteria

 Is it going to be all snow? I think this is another one of those complex storms that might throw everything at us. It might be safe not to drive tomorrow. 

 


Jaytee said:

max_weisenfeld said:

Snow warning criteria

 Is it going to be all snow? I think this is another one of those complex storms that might throw everything at us. It might be safe not to drive tomorrow. 

 It is also unclear at this time whether there will be a changeover to sleet on Friday.


jamie said:

We're lucky we're not in Texas - we have a friend whose house temp is 48 inside and no power.  And will still be pretty cold for a few more days.  I'm just waiting for people to use this as proof that there's no global warming.

They already have started with the anti-global warming comments.  I am originally from Texas and have many friends and family members there so my Facebook newsfeed has been full of the deep freeze and power outages.  And I have definitely seen those kinds of comments in some of the threads (although my close friends and family are smarter than that.)


Heynj said:

Jamie,

I can personally testify that 48 doesn’t sound unbearably cold in a house, surrounded by walls and blankets and drinking hot tea, but it is. After Sandy, it was at 48 in my living room that I bailed to a sibling’s home where the family still had power. When you are chilled like that for a day or two, it then takes a couple of days before you truly feel comfortable again. (I would not have done well in the olden days...)

 In the winter in Chile my house drops below the freezing point in winter.  The first year I was out-of-my-mind in the cold, but each year since it's gotten better.  The first year I had central heating and curtains, and now I don't.  I have a hearth, and I use the wood I clean from the property to stay warm.  The hearth really helps, and the years helped me to adapt to the environment.  So in response to your comment, Heynj, I don't think that 48 is unbearably cold.  Instead my experience tells me that you are not used to it.  48 degrees is the normal temp all winter here, and 18 million people make it through every day to work, school and gym early in the morning by dressing warmly.  I am sure it is a shock to everyone having to live in that temperature, but you will be fine.  I now have difficulty tolerating the heat.  It would be difficult for me to perform in the Jersey summer soup, the hot and humid days.  Consider getting a hearth; they're nice.


Copihue said:

 In the winter in Chile my house drops below the freezing point in winter.  The first year I was out-of-my-mind in the cold, but each year since it's gotten better.  The first year I had central heating and curtains, and now I don't.  I have a hearth, and I use the wood I clean from the property to stay warm.  The hearth really helps, and the years helped me to adapt to the environment.  So in response to your comment, Heynj, I don't think that 48 is unbearably cold.  Instead my experience tells me that you are not used to it.  48 degrees is the normal temp all winter here, and 18 million people make it through every day to work, school and gym early in the morning by dressing warmly.  I am sure it is a shock to everyone having to live in that temperature, but you will be fine.  I now have difficulty tolerating the heat.  It would be difficult for me to perform in the Jersey summer soup, the hot and humid days.  Consider getting a hearth; they're nice.

 It’s psychological. 48 outside is nice...48 inside is “freezing”.

It’s already snowing. 


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